Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ThyssenKrupp's recent earnings call highlighted both challenges and opportunities as the company maneuvers through a tough market environment.</li>
<li>The strategic decision to spin off Marine Systems by 2025 is underscored as a pivotal move alongside receiving a significant cash inflow from the sale of Key Electrical Steel India, bolstering the company's financial stance.</li>
<li>Notably, there is a focus on restructuring and adapting to market conditions, evidenced by ongoing negotiations with IG Metall to reconfigure their Steel Europe operations.</li>
</ul>


ThyssenKrupp's recent earnings call highlighted both challenges and opportunities as the company maneuvers through a tough market environment.
The strategic decision to spin off Marine Systems by 2025 is underscored as a pivotal move alongside receiving a significant cash inflow from the sale of Key Electrical Steel India, bolstering the company's financial stance.
Notably, there is a focus on restructuring and adapting to market conditions, evidenced by ongoing negotiations with IG Metall to reconfigure their Steel Europe operations.


ThyssenKrupp - Hidden Value in Elevator Business—A Game Changer?

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Conservative (CDU/CSU) chancellor-elect Merz should be able to form a stable coalition with SPD, but his "independence from America" requires massive constitutional amendments by 25Mar'25 allowing huge defense/infrastructure spending boosts. </li>
<li>This is a self-goal: the time for independence from America was 3 years ago, when instead Germany followed Biden's command to self-harm itself with a ban on Russian energy imports. </li>
<li>If Germany successfully leads an EU defense/infrastructure spending boom, Trump would still achieve his goal. But Germany would have missed the easier route to recovery via liberalized Russian energy imports. </li>
</ul>


Conservative (CDU/CSU) chancellor-elect Merz should be able to form a stable coalition with SPD, but his "independence from America" requires massive constitutional amendments by 25Mar'25 allowing huge defense/infrastructure spending boosts. 
This is a self-goal: the time for independence from America was 3 years ago, when instead Germany followed Biden's command to self-harm itself with a ban on Russian energy imports. 
If Germany successfully leads an EU defense/infrastructure spending boom, Trump would still achieve his goal. But Germany would have missed the easier route to recovery via liberalized Russian energy imports. 


Germany: Merz Call for 'independence from America' Could Be Ill-Timed Self-Goal

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.</li>
<li>We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.</li>
<li>With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.
We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.
With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.


Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 30 October, an FT <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/d237189f-d372-474d-981e-c1d3b32c3c8c" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> appeared which pushed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitec-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11686:1" rel="noopener">Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP)</a> shares sharply higher. The headline? <em>"Japanese lift maker Fujitec explores sale to private equity"</em>
</li>
<li>The next day, mid-day, Fujitec "<a href="https://www.fujitec.com/uploads/2024/10/241031_hodo_en.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">corrected</a>" the record, saying the articles (FT and others, presumably) contained "inaccuracies", including that "Fujitec is working to find a buyer."</li>
<li>They mention they have received a preliminary and non-binding initial proposal. The stock continued higher after that. Now investors have to decide how attractive an elevator/escalator business really is.</li>
</ul>


On 30 October, an FT article appeared which pushed Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP) shares sharply higher. The headline? "Japanese lift maker Fujitec explores sale to private equity"

The next day, mid-day, Fujitec "corrected" the record, saying the articles (FT and others, presumably) contained "inaccuracies", including that "Fujitec is working to find a buyer."
They mention they have received a preliminary and non-binding initial proposal. The stock continued higher after that. Now investors have to decide how attractive an elevator/escalator business really is.


<p>Our bullish outlook remains intact and is supported by the absence of breakdowns across major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) and ongoing positive market dynamics. Until this changes, we believe global equities are headed higher in the coming weeks and months.</p>

Our bullish outlook remains intact and is supported by the absence of breakdowns across major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) and ongoing positive market dynamics. Until this changes, we believe global equities are headed higher in the coming weeks and months.

Global Equity Strategy: Stick With Reflation & Reopening Theme

Germany

ThyssenKrupp AG manufactures industrial components.  The Company produces flat rolled and cast steel, automobile parts, elevators and escalators, machine tools, bearings, nonferrous metals and plastics, develops and manages real estate, and designs and constructs factories.

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ThyssenKrupp AG (TKA GR)

ThyssenKrupp - Hidden Value in Elevator Business—A Game Changer?

hyssenKrupp's recent earnings call highlighted both challenges and opportunities as the company maneuvers through a tough market environment.

Baptista Research

Germany: Merz Call for 'independence from America' Could Be Ill-Timed Self-Goal

Chancellor-elect Merz is mounting an improbable bid to achieve 'independence from America', as the requisite boost to defence/infra spending...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

Fujitec (6406 JP) - On the Block?

Fujitec may be on the block. An FT article suggests the company is talking to PE firms (wholly unsurprising) and the firm's "clarification" says a...

Travis Lundy

Global Equity Strategy: Stick With Reflation & Reopening Theme

Our bullish outlook remains intact supported by the absence of breakdowns across major global indexes. Until this changes, we believe global...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

ThyssenKrupp - Hidden Value in Elevator Business—A Game Changer?

hyssenKrupp's recent earnings call highlighted both challenges and opportunities as the company maneuvers through a tough market environment.

Baptista Research

Germany: Merz Call for 'independence from America' Could Be Ill-Timed Self-Goal

​Chancellor-elect Merz is mounting an improbable bid to achieve 'independence from America', as the requisite boost to defence/infra spending...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

Fujitec (6406 JP) - On the Block?

Fujitec may be on the block. An FT article suggests the company is talking to PE firms (wholly unsurprising) and the firm's "clarification" says a...

Travis Lundy

Global Equity Strategy: Stick With Reflation & Reopening Theme

Our bullish outlook remains intact supported by the absence of breakdowns across major global indexes. Until this changes, we believe global...

Vermilion Research

Chancellor-elect Merz is mounting an improbable bid to achieve 'independence from America', as the requisite boost to defence/infra spending...