Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass). We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass.</li>
<li>There is no reason to be anything but bullish as long as ACWI-US remains above its 2-month base and MSCI EAFE (EFA-US) remains above its 5.5+ month base.</li>
<li>We still see plenty of opportunity in non-A.I. names, and that remains our primary focus. On ACWI-US, we want to see $156.50 support hold on any pullback (the breakout level)</li>
</ul>


Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass). We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass.
There is no reason to be anything but bullish as long as ACWI-US remains above its 2-month base and MSCI EAFE (EFA-US) remains above its 5.5+ month base.
We still see plenty of opportunity in non-A.I. names, and that remains our primary focus. On ACWI-US, we want to see $156.50 support hold on any pullback (the breakout level)


Primary Focus Remains Non-A.I. Names; Actionable Themes: Materials, Energy, Financials, Health Care

Smartkarma AI Primers, Smartkarma

αSK Primers

Smartkarma AI Primers

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
 <li>ThyssenKrupp is in the midst of a significant transformation, shifting from a traditional industrial conglomerate to a holding company by divesting and spinning off major business units to unlock value and simplify its structure.</li>
 <li>The company's valuation appears discounted compared to peers on key metrics like EV/Sales and P/B, reflecting market concerns over execution risk, cyclicality of its core steel business, and inconsistent profitability.</li>
 <li>Future performance hinges on the successful execution of its portfolio strategy, particularly the separation of its Marine Systems and Steel Europe divisions, and its ability to capitalize on growth in decarbonization technologies.</li>
</ul>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


  ThyssenKrupp is in the midst of a significant transformation, shifting from a traditional industrial conglomerate to a holding company by divesting and spinning off major business units to unlock value and simplify its structure.
  The company's valuation appears discounted compared to peers on key metrics like EV/Sales and P/B, reflecting market concerns over execution risk, cyclicality of its core steel business, and inconsistent profitability.
  Future performance hinges on the successful execution of its portfolio strategy, particularly the separation of its Marine Systems and Steel Europe divisions, and its ability to capitalize on growth in decarbonization technologies.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: ThyssenKrupp AG (TKA GR) - Aug 2026

Founder at Stock Spin-off Investing, Stock Spin-Off Investing

Richard Howe

Founder at Stock Spin-off Investing

Stock Spin-Off Investing

Generate attractive returns by taking advantage of inefficiencies in the stock spin-off market.

Stock Spin-offs

Event-Driven

<ul><li>On October 30, 2025, Thyssenkrupp AG (TKA) spun off 49% of its stake in its naval/-marine defense-systems business, TKMS AG &amp; Co. (TKMS).</li><li>TKMS stands out as Germany’s only full-systems provider for non-nuclear submarines, surface vessels and maritime electronics.</li><li>The spin-off is part of a broader move by Thyssenkrupp to unlock shareholder value by simplifying its conglomerate structure.</li></ul>

On October 30, 2025, Thyssenkrupp AG (TKA) spun off 49% of its stake in its naval/-marine defense-systems business, TKMS AG &amp; Co. (TKMS).TKMS stands out as Germany’s only full-systems provider for non-nuclear submarines, surface vessels and maritime electronics.The spin-off is part of a broader move by Thyssenkrupp to unlock shareholder value by simplifying its conglomerate structure.

Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) Spin-off Deep Dive

<ul>
<li>Before I get into my regular update, I want to flag one chart that caught my eye.</li>
<li>The chart below shows that margins have held in there in the face tariffs. This is somewhat surprising to me.</li>
<li>This week was relatively quiet on the open-recommendations front, but I expect the news flow to pick up in the coming weeks as earnings season gets underway</li>
</ul>


Before I get into my regular update, I want to flag one chart that caught my eye.
The chart below shows that margins have held in there in the face tariffs. This is somewhat surprising to me.
This week was relatively quiet on the open-recommendations front, but I expect the news flow to pick up in the coming weeks as earnings season gets underway


Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>For the sixth consecutive year, China's steel output is declining (-3.9%YoY in Jan-May'26). World steel output is declining for the 5th consecutive year, but India/US/Germany steel output is rising.  </li>
<li>Like 1990-95 (post-USSR's fall), world steel output declined 33mn tonnes in 2020-25 led by China's 104mn decline -- caused by its overcapacity. Other countries' output grows, while China reins-in overcapacity. </li>
<li>Having accounted for 90% of increased world steel output in 2000-2020, China is focused on 'new industries'. FAI in steel will decline. Non-China steel producing countries/companies will continue to benefit. </li>
</ul>


For the sixth consecutive year, China's steel output is declining (-3.9%YoY in Jan-May'26). World steel output is declining for the 5th consecutive year, but India/US/Germany steel output is rising.  
Like 1990-95 (post-USSR's fall), world steel output declined 33mn tonnes in 2020-25 led by China's 104mn decline -- caused by its overcapacity. Other countries' output grows, while China reins-in overcapacity. 
Having accounted for 90% of increased world steel output in 2000-2020, China is focused on 'new industries'. FAI in steel will decline. Non-China steel producing countries/companies will continue to benefit. 


Steel as a Bellwether of Global Industrial Cycles: Climbing Out of China's Shadow

Germany

ThyssenKrupp AG manufactures industrial components.  The Company produces flat rolled and cast steel, automobile parts, elevators and escalators, machine tools, bearings, nonferrous metals and plastics, develops and manages real estate, and designs and constructs factories.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

ThyssenKrupp AG (TKA GR)

Primary Focus Remains Non-A.I. Names; Actionable Themes: Materials, Energy, Financials, Health Care

Thursday pre-market International Compass report: Primary Focus Remains Non-A.I. Names; Actionable Themes: Materials, Energy, Financials, and...

Vermilion Research

Primer: ThyssenKrupp AG (TKA GR) - Aug 2026

ThyssenKrupp is in the midst of a significant transformation, shifting from a traditional industrial conglomerate to a holding company by...

αSK Primers

Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) Spin-off Deep Dive

On October 30, 2025, Thyssenkrupp AG (TKA) spun off 49% of its stake in its naval/-marine defense-systems business, TKMS AG & Co. (TKMS).

Richard Howe

Weekly Update (TKMS, NATL, HOH.V)

Before I get into my regular update, I want to flag one chart that caught my eye. The chart below shows that margins have held in there in the...

Richard Howe

Steel as a Bellwether of Global Industrial Cycles: Climbing Out of China's Shadow

China's steel output is declining for the sixth successive year, while India, US, Germany see growth. China's FAI in old industries will slump...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Primary Focus Remains Non-A.I. Names; Actionable Themes: Materials, Energy, Financials, Health Care

Thursday pre-market International Compass report: Primary Focus Remains Non-A.I. Names; Actionable Themes: Materials, Energy, Financials, and...

Vermilion Research

Primer: ThyssenKrupp AG (TKA GR) - Aug 2026

ThyssenKrupp is in the midst of a significant transformation, shifting from a traditional industrial conglomerate to a holding company by...

αSK Primers

Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) Spin-off Deep Dive

On October 30, 2025, Thyssenkrupp AG (TKA) spun off 49% of its stake in its naval/-marine defense-systems business, TKMS AG & Co. (TKMS).

Richard Howe

Weekly Update (TKMS, NATL, HOH.V)

Before I get into my regular update, I want to flag one chart that caught my eye. The chart below shows that margins have held in there in the...

Richard Howe

Steel as a Bellwether of Global Industrial Cycles: Climbing Out of China's Shadow

​China's steel output is declining for the sixth successive year, while India, US, Germany see growth. China's FAI in old industries will slump...

Prasenjit K. Basu

China's steel output is declining for the sixth successive year, while India, US, Germany see growth. China's FAI in old industries will slump...