Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 indices in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see one M&amp;A-related intra-review change for the F250 index in the next few days.</li>
<li>Separately, our latest estimates suggest there could be two regular changes for the F250 index during the June 2025 rebalance. We do not currently see any changes for the F100.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 indices in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
We see one M&amp;A-related intra-review change for the F250 index in the next few days.
Separately, our latest estimates suggest there could be two regular changes for the F250 index during the June 2025 rebalance. We do not currently see any changes for the F100.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25: One High-Impact Intra-Review Change Soon; More Changes Later

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see up to five M&amp;A-related intra-review changes for the F250 index in the run up to the June 2025 review. Many could be very high impact.</li>
<li>Separately, there could be one regular index change for the F250 index in June 2025. At present, we do not see any changes for the F100 index.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
We see up to five M&amp;A-related intra-review changes for the F250 index in the run up to the June 2025 review. Many could be very high impact.
Separately, there could be one regular index change for the F250 index in June 2025. At present, we do not see any changes for the F100 index.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25: Multiple High-Impact Intra-Review Index Additions Likely

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Event-Driven

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Remain BULLISH <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) </a> with low conviction. This is buying on narrative rather than fundamentals but there is no need to not get involved.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vitasoy-intl-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2807:1" rel="noopener">Vitasoy Intl Holdings (345 HK)</a>'s share price run up is excessive as Philip Ng and<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yeo-hiap-seng-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9051:1" rel="noopener">Yeo Hiap Seng (YHS SP)</a> over-extend their hand.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nec-networks-system-integr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16396:1" rel="noopener">Nec Networks (1973 JP)</a> has yet to trade below terms. The premium is small, perhaps reflecting the risk NEC will lower the minimum threshold. But there is still a fight here.</li>
</ul>


Remain BULLISH Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)  with low conviction. This is buying on narrative rather than fundamentals but there is no need to not get involved.

Vitasoy Intl Holdings (345 HK)'s share price run up is excessive as Philip Ng andYeo Hiap Seng (YHS SP) over-extend their hand.

Nec Networks (1973 JP) has yet to trade below terms. The premium is small, perhaps reflecting the risk NEC will lower the minimum threshold. But there is still a fight here.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric Railway, Vitasoy, NEC Network, ESR Group

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>On November 29 (PUSU deadline), TI Fluid Systems agreed to a £1.04 billion ($1.32 billion) takeover by ABC Technologies, 4.4x EV/NTM EBITDA vs. comparables at 4.6x, 6.7x Fwd P/E.</li>
<li>Investors have flocked to this deal, as regulatory clearances do not seem particularly demanding.</li>
<li>Spread is 3.7%/11.98% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by 30 March 2025). Taking 135.8p break, the implied probability of deal completion is 88.5%. Long.</li>
</ul>


On November 29 (PUSU deadline), TI Fluid Systems agreed to a £1.04 billion ($1.32 billion) takeover by ABC Technologies, 4.4x EV/NTM EBITDA vs. comparables at 4.6x, 6.7x Fwd P/E.
Investors have flocked to this deal, as regulatory clearances do not seem particularly demanding.
Spread is 3.7%/11.98% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by 30 March 2025). Taking 135.8p break, the implied probability of deal completion is 88.5%. Long.


ABC/TI Fluid Systems: Offer Announcement, Interesting Annual Return

<ul>
<li>ABC Technologies has largely completed its due diligence and reiterated a potential offer price of 200p per share, which the TIFS Board is minded to recommend if confirmed. </li>
<li>After several extensions, tomorrow November 29 marks the final extension of the PUSU deadline. Spread has tightened over the last trading sessions in anticipation of a firm offer.</li>
<li>The 200p proposal values TIFS at 4.64x NTM EBITDA, above the 4.55x sector median, reflecting a fair valuation despite industry challenges like Chinese market weakness and fluctuating OEM shares.</li>
</ul>


ABC Technologies has largely completed its due diligence and reiterated a potential offer price of 200p per share, which the TIFS Board is minded to recommend if confirmed. 
After several extensions, tomorrow November 29 marks the final extension of the PUSU deadline. Spread has tightened over the last trading sessions in anticipation of a firm offer.
The 200p proposal values TIFS at 4.64x NTM EBITDA, above the 4.55x sector median, reflecting a fair valuation despite industry challenges like Chinese market weakness and fluctuating OEM shares.


ABC Technologies/TI Fluid Systems: Highly Likely Firm Offer by Tomorrow

China

TI Fluid Systems PLC manufactures automotive parts. The Company offers fluid carrying systems, fuel tanks, filter tubes, modules, pumps, and sealed level sensors. TI Fluid Systems markets its products worldwide.

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TI Fluid Systems (TIFS LN)

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25: One High-Impact Intra-Review Change Soon; More Changes Later

The International Distribution (IDS LN) deal could close soon and the name could get deleted in May 2025. The top-ranked replacement name is...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25: Multiple High-Impact Intra-Review Index Additions Likely

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Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric Railway, Vitasoy, NEC Network, ESR Group

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

ABC/TI Fluid Systems: Offer Announcement, Interesting Annual Return

On November 29 (PUSU deadline), TI Fluid Systems agreed to a £1.04 billion ($1.32 billion) takeover by ABC Technologies. Investors have flocked to...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

ABC Technologies/TI Fluid Systems: Highly Likely Firm Offer by Tomorrow

ABC Technologies is considering offering 200p per share for TIFS, a valuation above sector median despite industry challenges. Tomorrow marks the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25: One High-Impact Intra-Review Change Soon; More Changes Later

The International Distribution (IDS LN) deal could close soon and the name could get deleted in May 2025. The top-ranked replacement name is...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25: Multiple High-Impact Intra-Review Index Additions Likely

Most of the intra-review replacement candidates have well in excess of 10x ADV to buy if they get added to the F250 index. Some of these names...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric Railway, Vitasoy, NEC Network, ESR Group

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

ABC/TI Fluid Systems: Offer Announcement, Interesting Annual Return

On November 29 (PUSU deadline), TI Fluid Systems agreed to a £1.04 billion ($1.32 billion) takeover by ABC Technologies. Investors have flocked to...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

ABC Technologies/TI Fluid Systems: Highly Likely Firm Offer by Tomorrow

​ABC Technologies is considering offering 200p per share for TIFS, a valuation above sector median despite industry challenges. Tomorrow marks the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

ABC Technologies is considering offering 200p per share for TIFS, a valuation above sector median despite industry challenges. Tomorrow marks the...