European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On November 29 (PUSU deadline), TI Fluid Systems agreed to a £1.04 billion ($1.32 billion) takeover by ABC Technologies, 4.4x EV/NTM EBITDA vs. comparables at 4.6x, 6.7x Fwd P/E.</li>
<li>Investors have flocked to this deal, as regulatory clearances do not seem particularly demanding.</li>
<li>Spread is 3.7%/11.98% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by 30 March 2025). Taking 135.8p break, the implied probability of deal completion is 88.5%. Long.</li>
</ul>


On November 29 (PUSU deadline), TI Fluid Systems agreed to a £1.04 billion ($1.32 billion) takeover by ABC Technologies, 4.4x EV/NTM EBITDA vs. comparables at 4.6x, 6.7x Fwd P/E.
Investors have flocked to this deal, as regulatory clearances do not seem particularly demanding.
Spread is 3.7%/11.98% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by 30 March 2025). Taking 135.8p break, the implied probability of deal completion is 88.5%. Long.


ABC/TI Fluid Systems: Offer Announcement, Interesting Annual Return

<ul>
<li>ABC Technologies has largely completed its due diligence and reiterated a potential offer price of 200p per share, which the TIFS Board is minded to recommend if confirmed. </li>
<li>After several extensions, tomorrow November 29 marks the final extension of the PUSU deadline. Spread has tightened over the last trading sessions in anticipation of a firm offer.</li>
<li>The 200p proposal values TIFS at 4.64x NTM EBITDA, above the 4.55x sector median, reflecting a fair valuation despite industry challenges like Chinese market weakness and fluctuating OEM shares.</li>
</ul>


ABC Technologies has largely completed its due diligence and reiterated a potential offer price of 200p per share, which the TIFS Board is minded to recommend if confirmed. 
After several extensions, tomorrow November 29 marks the final extension of the PUSU deadline. Spread has tightened over the last trading sessions in anticipation of a firm offer.
The 200p proposal values TIFS at 4.64x NTM EBITDA, above the 4.55x sector median, reflecting a fair valuation despite industry challenges like Chinese market weakness and fluctuating OEM shares.


ABC Technologies/TI Fluid Systems: Highly Likely Firm Offer by Tomorrow

Event-Driven Investment Opportunities, Special Situation Investments

Special Situation Investments

Event-Driven Investment Opportunities

Focus on event-driven trades and low risk arbitrage opportunities with short term catalysts

<ul><li>ABC Technologies, backed by Apollo, offers £2/share for TI Fluid Systems, with a 13.5% gross spread and PUSU deadline on November 8.</li><li>Bain Capital, holding 28% of TIFS, supports the offer; Apollo's bid is 50% above pre-announcement prices.</li><li>Regulatory risk is minimal; TIFS acquisition aligns with Apollo's strategy, enhancing ABC's international expansion and product diversification.</li></ul>

ABC Technologies, backed by Apollo, offers £2/share for TI Fluid Systems, with a 13.5% gross spread and PUSU deadline on November 8.Bain Capital, holding 28% of TIFS, supports the offer; Apollo's bid is 50% above pre-announcement prices.Regulatory risk is minimal; TIFS acquisition aligns with Apollo's strategy, enhancing ABC's international expansion and product diversification.

TI Fluid Systems Targeted by ABC Technologies: 13.5% Merger Arbitrage Opportunity with Minimal Regulatory Risk

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ti-fluid-systems-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41309:1" rel="noopener">TI Fluid Systems (TIFS LN)</a> is trading at 10% gross spread to ABC (Apollo)'s Proposal, which the Board of TIFS would be minded to recommend if made firm.</li>
<li>Although TIFS has made notable strategic progress recently, and maintained margins despite tough conditions over the last years, the short-term car picture has gotten progressively worse.</li>
<li>200p implies 4.6x EV/NTM EBITDA versus global auto suppliers trading on a median of 4.4x and represents a good-value exit. I believe the deal will complete. Long.</li>
</ul>



TI Fluid Systems (TIFS LN) is trading at 10% gross spread to ABC (Apollo)'s Proposal, which the Board of TIFS would be minded to recommend if made firm.
Although TIFS has made notable strategic progress recently, and maintained margins despite tough conditions over the last years, the short-term car picture has gotten progressively worse.
200p implies 4.6x EV/NTM EBITDA versus global auto suppliers trading on a median of 4.4x and represents a good-value exit. I believe the deal will complete. Long.


ABC/TI Fluid Systems: 10% Gross Spread on a Highly Likely Deal

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 indices in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see one M&amp;A-related intra-review change for the F250 index in the next few days.</li>
<li>Separately, our latest estimates suggest there could be two regular changes for the F250 index during the June 2025 rebalance. We do not currently see any changes for the F100.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 indices in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
We see one M&amp;A-related intra-review change for the F250 index in the next few days.
Separately, our latest estimates suggest there could be two regular changes for the F250 index during the June 2025 rebalance. We do not currently see any changes for the F100.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25: One High-Impact Intra-Review Change Soon; More Changes Later

China

TI Fluid Systems PLC manufactures automotive parts. The Company offers fluid carrying systems, fuel tanks, filter tubes, modules, pumps, and sealed level sensors. TI Fluid Systems markets its products worldwide.

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TI Fluid Systems (TIFS LN)

ABC/TI Fluid Systems: Offer Announcement, Interesting Annual Return

On November 29 (PUSU deadline), TI Fluid Systems agreed to a £1.04 billion ($1.32 billion) takeover by ABC Technologies. Investors have flocked to...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

ABC Technologies/TI Fluid Systems: Highly Likely Firm Offer by Tomorrow

ABC Technologies is considering offering 200p per share for TIFS, a valuation above sector median despite industry challenges. Tomorrow marks the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

TI Fluid Systems Targeted by ABC Technologies: 13.5% Merger Arbitrage Opportunity with Minimal Regulatory Risk

ABC Technologies, backed by Apollo, offers £2/share for TI Fluid Systems, with a 13.5% gross spread and PUSU deadline on November 8.

Special Situation Investments

ABC/TI Fluid Systems: 10% Gross Spread on a Highly Likely Deal

TI Fluid Systems (TIFS LN) trading at 10% gross spread to ABC (Apollo)'s Proposal, with Board likely to recommend if firm. Despite recent...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25: One High-Impact Intra-Review Change Soon; More Changes Later

The International Distribution (IDS LN) deal could close soon and the name could get deleted in May 2025. The top-ranked replacement name is...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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ABC/TI Fluid Systems: Offer Announcement, Interesting Annual Return

On November 29 (PUSU deadline), TI Fluid Systems agreed to a £1.04 billion ($1.32 billion) takeover by ABC Technologies. Investors have flocked to...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

ABC Technologies/TI Fluid Systems: Highly Likely Firm Offer by Tomorrow

​ABC Technologies is considering offering 200p per share for TIFS, a valuation above sector median despite industry challenges. Tomorrow marks the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

TI Fluid Systems Targeted by ABC Technologies: 13.5% Merger Arbitrage Opportunity with Minimal Regulatory Risk

ABC Technologies, backed by Apollo, offers £2/share for TI Fluid Systems, with a 13.5% gross spread and PUSU deadline on November 8.

Special Situation Investments

ABC/TI Fluid Systems: 10% Gross Spread on a Highly Likely Deal

​TI Fluid Systems (TIFS LN) trading at 10% gross spread to ABC (Apollo)'s Proposal, with Board likely to recommend if firm. Despite recent...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Jun25: One High-Impact Intra-Review Change Soon; More Changes Later

The International Distribution (IDS LN) deal could close soon and the name could get deleted in May 2025. The top-ranked replacement name is...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

ABC Technologies is considering offering 200p per share for TIFS, a valuation above sector median despite industry challenges. Tomorrow marks the...

TI Fluid Systems (TIFS LN) trading at 10% gross spread to ABC (Apollo)'s Proposal, with Board likely to recommend if firm. Despite recent...