Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

Nomura Research Institute / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>On 25 November <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-research-institute-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18129:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Research Institute Ltd (4307 JP)</a> announced that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jafco-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8848:1" rel="noopener">Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:742:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Holdings (8604 JP)</a> would conduct a Secondary Offering of NRI Shares. </li>
<li>The sale is 36.97mm shares plus a greenshoe. It's a big deal ($1bn) including greenshoe after JPY has just strengthened, but underperformance both before and after announcement sets up well. </li>
<li>Expect weakness today, but the stock is now at a two-year low, and the PER multiple premium is now at the lowest 3mo average premium in 5yrs. Expect retail buying.</li>
</ul>


On 25 November Nomura Research Institute Ltd (4307 JP) announced that Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) and Nomura Holdings (8604 JP) would conduct a Secondary Offering of NRI Shares. 
The sale is 36.97mm shares plus a greenshoe. It's a big deal ($1bn) including greenshoe after JPY has just strengthened, but underperformance both before and after announcement sets up well. 
Expect weakness today, but the stock is now at a two-year low, and the PER multiple premium is now at the lowest 3mo average premium in 5yrs. Expect retail buying.


NRI (4307) Likely Prices Today - Expect Weakness Then Strength

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.</li>
</ul>


At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.
Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.


TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Simplex Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<div>
Simplex Holdings’ shareholders aim to raise up to US$304m via selling some of their stake in the company. Simplex has consistently been ranked among the top companies in IDC Fintech rankings over the past nine years.
Simplex provides consulting, system development, maintenance and operations to banks, asset managers and insurance companies in Asia. Simplex was established in Sep 97. It was listed on JASDAQ in Feb 2002 and progressed to the First Section in Sep 2005. The company undertook an MBO, in Apr 2013 and was delisted in Oct 2013. Since delisting, Simplex has expanded its product offering further to cover life insurance and non-life insurance companies as well, along with crypto exchanges.
</div><div>We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/simplex-holdings-pre-ipo-steady-topline-growth-but-appears-to-be-at-peak-margins" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Simplex Holdings Pre-IPO - Steady topline growth but appears to be at peak margins</a> and  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/simplex-holdings-pre-ipo-peer-comp-valuation-lagging-in-size-but-leading-in-growth-and-margins" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Simplex Holdings Pre-IPO - Peer Comp, Valuation - Lagging in Size but Leading in Growth and Margins</a>.</div><div>In this note we will undertake a peer comparison and talk about valuations.</div>


Simplex Holdings’ shareholders aim to raise up to US$304m via selling some of their stake in the company. Simplex has consistently been ranked among the top companies in IDC Fintech rankings over the past nine years.
Simplex provides consulting, system development, maintenance and operations to banks, asset managers and insurance companies in Asia. Simplex was established in Sep 97. It was listed on JASDAQ in Feb 2002 and progressed to the First Section in Sep 2005. The company undertook an MBO, in Apr 2013 and was delisted in Oct 2013. Since delisting, Simplex has expanded its product offering further to cover life insurance and non-life insurance companies as well, along with crypto exchanges.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes, Simplex Holdings Pre-IPO - Steady topline growth but appears to be at peak margins and  Simplex Holdings Pre-IPO - Peer Comp, Valuation - Lagging in Size but Leading in Growth and Margins.In this note we will undertake a peer comparison and talk about valuations.

Simplex Holdings IPO - Valuation Looks Ok, past Performance Will Weigh on Sentiment

Simplex Holding’s shareholders aim to raise around US$300m via selling some of their stake in the company. Simplex has consistently been ranked among the top companies in IDC Fintech rankings over the past nine years.Simplex provides consulting, system development, maintenance and operations to banks, asset managers and insurance companies in Asia. Simplex was established in Sep 97. It was listed on JASDAQ in Feb 2002 and progressed to the First Section in Sep 2005. The company undertook an MBO, in Apr 2013 and was delisted in Oct 2013.Since delisting, Simplex has expanded its product offering further to cover life insurance and non-life insurance companies as well, along with crypto exchanges. It has been reporting steady revenue growth over the past few years, although its margins have been volatile. Its performance prior to delisting wasn’t great, as it missed its medium term targets, and it now appears to be at peak margins.We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/simplex-holdings-pre-ipo-steady-topline-growth-but-appears-to-be-at-peak-margins" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Simplex Holdings Pre-IPO - Steady topline growth but appears to be at peak margins</a>.In this note we will undertake a peer comparison and talk about valuations.

Simplex Holding’s shareholders aim to raise around US$300m via selling some of their stake in the company. Simplex has consistently been ranked among the top companies in IDC Fintech rankings over the past nine years.Simplex provides consulting, system development, maintenance and operations to banks, asset managers and insurance companies in Asia. Simplex was established in Sep 97. It was listed on JASDAQ in Feb 2002 and progressed to the First Section in Sep 2005. The company undertook an MBO, in Apr 2013 and was delisted in Oct 2013.Since delisting, Simplex has expanded its product offering further to cover life insurance and non-life insurance companies as well, along with crypto exchanges. It has been reporting steady revenue growth over the past few years, although its margins have been volatile. Its performance prior to delisting wasn’t great, as it missed its medium term targets, and it now appears to be at peak margins.We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier note, Simplex Holdings Pre-IPO - Steady topline growth but appears to be at peak margins.In this note we will undertake a peer comparison and talk about valuations.

Simplex Holdings Pre-IPO - Peer Comp, Valuation - Lagging in Size but Leading in Growth and Margins

Equity Bottom-Up

Nomura Research Institute / Equity Bottom-Up

On 21 June 2021, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-research-institute-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18129:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Research Institute Ltd (4307 JP)</a> announced (<a href="https://ir.nri.com/jp/ir/news/auto_20210621452515/pdfFile.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">link</a>) a buyback program of up to 20,000,000 shares (3.30% of shares out) spending up to ¥60 billion, with the program running from 22 June 2021 to 30 December 2021, with possible buying on market and on ToSTNeT-3, but excluding dates in the 10 days around the day after the quarterly results announcements. The company ALSO announced a ToSTNeT-3 buyback tomorrow morning for up to 16,925,200 shares at today's closing price of ¥3,545/share. That 16.925mm shares at that price = ¥59,999,834,000 so one can assume that if the ToSTNeT-3 buyback is completed to the full extent, that will mean the buyback program will be done tomorrow before the market opens.The announcement suggested that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:742:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Holdings (8604 JP)</a> intended to sell as many as 14.105 million shares in the buyback leaving 2.815mm shares for other holders if they want to sell Monday's close. But I remind readers that a) short selling is allowed, and b) it is entirely pro rata (with some niggling little procedural exceptions) so if people stepped in to sell, they would probably get a decent portion of their offer sold at that price. More below the fold.

On 21 June 2021, Nomura Research Institute Ltd (4307 JP) announced (link) a buyback program of up to 20,000,000 shares (3.30% of shares out) spending up to ¥60 billion, with the program running from 22 June 2021 to 30 December 2021, with possible buying on market and on ToSTNeT-3, but excluding dates in the 10 days around the day after the quarterly results announcements. The company ALSO announced a ToSTNeT-3 buyback tomorrow morning for up to 16,925,200 shares at today's closing price of ¥3,545/share. That 16.925mm shares at that price = ¥59,999,834,000 so one can assume that if the ToSTNeT-3 buyback is completed to the full extent, that will mean the buyback program will be done tomorrow before the market opens.The announcement suggested that Nomura Holdings (8604 JP) intended to sell as many as 14.105 million shares in the buyback leaving 2.815mm shares for other holders if they want to sell Monday's close. But I remind readers that a) short selling is allowed, and b) it is entirely pro rata (with some niggling little procedural exceptions) so if people stepped in to sell, they would probably get a decent portion of their offer sold at that price. More below the fold. 

Nomura Research Institute ToSTNeT-3 Buyback

Japan

TIS Inc is established through reorganization.  The Company provides network solutions and system integration services.  IT Holdings also engages in development, implementation, and maintenance of application software besides selling computer and computer peripheral equipment.

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TIS (3626 JP)

NRI (4307) Likely Prices Today - Expect Weakness Then Strength

NRi has underperformed Peers since its announcement. It's current PER multiple to the Peer Average matches the lowest 3-month average premium seen...

Travis Lundy

TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Lower FFWs on 970 stocks and higher FFWs on 114 stocks will result in one-way turnover of 2.52% leading to a one-way trade of ¥1.8tn at the close...

Brian Freitas

Simplex Holdings IPO - Valuation Looks Ok, past Performance Will Weigh on Sentiment

Simplex Holdings’ shareholders aim to raise up to US$304m via selling some of their stake in the company. Simplex has consistently been ranked...

Sumeet Singh

Simplex Holdings Pre-IPO - Peer Comp, Valuation - Lagging in Size but Leading in Growth and Margins

Simplex Holding’s shareholders aim to raise around US$300m via selling some of their stake in the company. Simplex has consistently been ranked...

Sumeet Singh

Nomura Research Institute ToSTNeT-3 Buyback

NRI is one of the higher-multiple (forward consensus EV/EBIT or EV/EBITDA) Japanese IT service companies. There is a PRE-OPEN ToSTNeT-3 buyback...

Travis Lundy

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NRI (4307) Likely Prices Today - Expect Weakness Then Strength

NRi has underperformed Peers since its announcement. It's current PER multiple to the Peer Average matches the lowest 3-month average premium seen...

Travis Lundy

TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Lower FFWs on 970 stocks and higher FFWs on 114 stocks will result in one-way turnover of 2.52% leading to a one-way trade of ¥1.8tn at the close...

Brian Freitas

Simplex Holdings IPO - Valuation Looks Ok, past Performance Will Weigh on Sentiment

Simplex Holdings’ shareholders aim to raise up to US$304m via selling some of their stake in the company. Simplex has consistently been ranked...

Sumeet Singh

Simplex Holdings Pre-IPO - Peer Comp, Valuation - Lagging in Size but Leading in Growth and Margins

Simplex Holding’s shareholders aim to raise around US$300m via selling some of their stake in the company. Simplex has consistently been ranked...

Sumeet Singh

Nomura Research Institute ToSTNeT-3 Buyback

NRI is one of the higher-multiple (forward consensus EV/EBIT or EV/EBITDA) Japanese IT service companies. There is a *PRE-OPEN* ToSTNeT-3 buyback...

Travis Lundy

NRI is one of the higher-multiple (forward consensus EV/EBIT or EV/EBITDA) Japanese IT service companies. There is a PRE-OPEN ToSTNeT-3 buyback...