Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 14 Japanese stocks at risk of being deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The number will be smaller depending on the day of the review period chosen.</li>
<li>Selling from passive trackers will range from US$176m-354m and the impact ranges from 3.1-18.4 days of ADV. Short interest has increased in nearly all stocks over the last 4 weeks.</li>
<li>The forecast deletes have underperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX</a> on average over the last 1-3 months, while there has been marginal outperformance over the last week or two.</li>
</ul>


There are 14 Japanese stocks at risk of being deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The number will be smaller depending on the day of the review period chosen.
Selling from passive trackers will range from US$176m-354m and the impact ranges from 3.1-18.4 days of ADV. Short interest has increased in nearly all stocks over the last 4 weeks.
The forecast deletes have underperformed the TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX on average over the last 1-3 months, while there has been marginal outperformance over the last week or two.


Japan: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
 Election victory solidifies reflationary agenda: Polls project decisive 300+ seat supermajority for Takaichi's coalition, enabling aggressive fiscal expansion. Equities trade near records; exporters and industrial policy beneficiaries poised to gain.</li>
<li>
 Power generation emerges as critical bottleneck: AI capex cycles constrained by grid capacity, not capital. Record order intake from infrastructure players signals urgent demand for electrification.</li>
<li>
 Global software rout spares few in Japan: Software stocks have plummeted 15%+ globally, with Japanese names also hit hard. This divergence underscores importance of diversified sector selection as AI matures.</li>
</ul>



 Election victory solidifies reflationary agenda: Polls project decisive 300+ seat supermajority for Takaichi's coalition, enabling aggressive fiscal expansion. Equities trade near records; exporters and industrial policy beneficiaries poised to gain.

 Power generation emerges as critical bottleneck: AI capex cycles constrained by grid capacity, not capital. Record order intake from infrastructure players signals urgent demand for electrification.

 Global software rout spares few in Japan: Software stocks have plummeted 15%+ globally, with Japanese names also hit hard. This divergence underscores importance of diversified sector selection as AI matures.


Japan Strategy Weekly | Takaichi's Landslide Mandate Arrives

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digital-garage-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13747:1" rel="noopener">Digital Garage (4819 JP)</a> got very exciting when an activist got involved. The less so when that activist sold its shares to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/resona-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6841:1" rel="noopener">Resona Holdings (8308 JP)</a> at a fat premium.</li>
<li>DG lost its driver. Perhaps Resona is a longer-term catalyst but it's unclear. Given they are down 60% so far, they may be looking for new blood. Hayashi-san is 66.</li>
<li>Now Digital Garage's big equity affiliate stake asset will turn into cash. This is real value. It has been but this deal will double (or more than double) BVPS.</li>
</ul>



Digital Garage (4819 JP) got very exciting when an activist got involved. The less so when that activist sold its shares to Resona Holdings (8308 JP) at a fat premium.
DG lost its driver. Perhaps Resona is a longer-term catalyst but it's unclear. Given they are down 60% so far, they may be looking for new blood. Hayashi-san is 66.
Now Digital Garage's big equity affiliate stake asset will turn into cash. This is real value. It has been but this deal will double (or more than double) BVPS.


[Japan Event] Digital Garage (4819) Is The Wrong Price

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Japan is widely owned but lightly held: 88% of global funds now hold Japan—well ahead of Asian peers—yet average weights remain near 15-year lows and structurally underweight vs. ACWI.</li>
<li>Allocations are shallow and skewed: 75% of global funds hold less than 6.3% in Japan; exposures above 10% are rare and concentrated in Value and Yield strategies.</li>
<li>Tech &amp; Industrials dominate; ownership is fragmented: Japan exposure is concentrated in Tech/Industrials, with few consensus stocks beyond Sony and Keyence, and a long tail of lightly held names.</li>
</ul>


Japan is widely owned but lightly held: 88% of global funds now hold Japan—well ahead of Asian peers—yet average weights remain near 15-year lows and structurally underweight vs. ACWI.
Allocations are shallow and skewed: 75% of global funds hold less than 6.3% in Japan; exposures above 10% are rare and concentrated in Value and Yield strategies.
Tech &amp; Industrials dominate; ownership is fragmented: Japan exposure is concentrated in Tech/Industrials, with few consensus stocks beyond Sony and Keyence, and a long tail of lightly held names.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Foxconn Industrial Internet / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish SPX and ACWI since 4/22/25, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>We discussed in our July 31, 2025 Int'l Compass how $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50 were short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US, and ACWI-US found support at $128 the next day.</li>
<li>Europe (EURO STOXX 50) is the last of the major countries (from a global market cap perspective) to break out; we expect it to be next</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish SPX and ACWI since 4/22/25, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
We discussed in our July 31, 2025 Int'l Compass how $128, $125-$126, and $123-$123.50 were short-term supports to watch on ACWI-US, and ACWI-US found support at $128 the next day.
Europe (EURO STOXX 50) is the last of the major countries (from a global market cap perspective) to break out; we expect it to be next


Europe Next to Break Out?; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Korea, Greece, and the U.S.

Japan

TIS Inc is established through reorganization.  The Company provides network solutions and system integration services.  IT Holdings also engages in development, implementation, and maintenance of application software besides selling computer and computer peripheral equipment.

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TIS (3626 JP)

Japan: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February

Tomorrow is going to be a huge volume day in Japan as the global index rebalances. Kokusai Electric has bounced as expected and there could be more...

Brian Freitas

Japan Strategy Weekly | Takaichi's Landslide Mandate Arrives

Election victory boosts reflationary agenda; power generation bottleneck hinders AI capex; global software rout hits Japanese stocks hard.

Mark Chadwick

[Japan Event] Digital Garage (4819) Is The Wrong Price

Digital Garage was the wrong price in July when the bid for Kakaku was lower. It is the wrong price today with the Kakaku price higher. It is...

Travis Lundy

Japan: Cautious Reengagment

Global ownership of Japan is rising, but conviction remains weak. Allocations sit near historic lows, with Value funds leading a cautious rotation...

Steven Holden

Europe Next to Break Out?; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Korea, Greece, and the U.S.

Europe Next to Break Out?; China and Japan Remain Attractive and a big focus since our July 3rd report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out;"...

Vermilion Research

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Japan: Last Look at Potential Passive Selling in February

Tomorrow is going to be a huge volume day in Japan as the global index rebalances. Kokusai Electric has bounced as expected and there could be more...

Brian Freitas

Japan Strategy Weekly | Takaichi's Landslide Mandate Arrives

​Election victory boosts reflationary agenda; power generation bottleneck hinders AI capex; global software rout hits Japanese stocks hard.

Mark Chadwick

[Japan Event] Digital Garage (4819) Is The Wrong Price

Digital Garage was the wrong price in July when the bid for Kakaku was lower. It is the wrong price today with the Kakaku price higher. It is...

Travis Lundy

Japan: Cautious Reengagment

Global ownership of Japan is rising, but conviction remains weak. Allocations sit near historic lows, with Value funds leading a cautious rotation...

Steven Holden

Europe Next to Break Out?; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Korea, Greece, and the U.S.

Europe Next to Break Out?; China and Japan Remain Attractive and a big focus since our July 3rd report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out;"...

Vermilion Research

Election victory boosts reflationary agenda; power generation bottleneck hinders AI capex; global software rout hits Japanese stocks hard.