Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 34 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>Three new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/peet-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15586:1" rel="noopener">Peet Ltd (PPC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carnaby-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4197:1" rel="noopener">Carnaby Resources (CNB AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oue-healthcare-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:562:1" rel="noopener">OUE Healthcare (OUEHC SP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reliance-worldwide-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22690:1" rel="noopener">Reliance Worldwide Corp (RWC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausgold-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19133:1" rel="noopener">Ausgold Ltd (AUC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dentsu-soken-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20535:1" rel="noopener">Dentsu Soken (4812 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golfzon-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16376:1" rel="noopener">Golfzon Holdings (121440 KS)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 34 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
Three new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Peet Ltd (PPC AU), Carnaby Resources (CNB AU), and OUE Healthcare (OUEHC SP).
Key updates/news also took place on: Reliance Worldwide Corp (RWC AU), Ausgold Ltd (AUC AU), Dentsu Soken (4812 JP), and Golfzon Holdings (121440 KS).


Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Dentsu Soken, Peet, Carnaby Resources, Reliance Worldwide, Ausgold, Golfzon

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SPX, Nasdaq 100, and DJI breaking out to new all-time highs following 3-week consolidations. Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 400 (IJH), Vanguard ExtendedMarket (VXF), countless other Sectors/industries breaking out also.</li>
<li>This is classic bull market behavior. Considering market dynamics remain healthy, this is all evidence that supports our ongoing bullish outlook.</li>
<li>Software, Data Storage buys: NTAP, NTNX, DBX, VRNS, and CVLT. Investment Banking &amp; Brokerage, Mid-Cap buys: JEF, SF, EVR, MC, and LAZ</li>
</ul>


The SPX, Nasdaq 100, and DJI breaking out to new all-time highs following 3-week consolidations. Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 400 (IJH), Vanguard ExtendedMarket (VXF), countless other Sectors/industries breaking out also.
This is classic bull market behavior. Considering market dynamics remain healthy, this is all evidence that supports our ongoing bullish outlook.
Software, Data Storage buys: NTAP, NTNX, DBX, VRNS, and CVLT. Investment Banking &amp; Brokerage, Mid-Cap buys: JEF, SF, EVR, MC, and LAZ


Breakouts Proliferate; Bullish Outlook Intact; Small- And Mid-Caps to Lead?

<ul>
<li>Reportedly cashed-up <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokio-marine-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7591:1" rel="noopener">Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP)</a> is running a ruler over <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insurance-australia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:712:1" rel="noopener">Insurance Australia (IAG AU)</a> or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suncorp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4218:1" rel="noopener">Suncorp (SUN AU)</a>, each with market cap of ~A$20bn.</li>
<li>IAG recently (partially) settled its Greensill legal exposure; but hasn't stress tested the remaining cases. Plus its acquisition of RACWA's insurance underwriting arm has entered Phase 2 with the ACCC.</li>
<li>Suncorp is potentially a cleaner play after selling Suncorp Bank to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anz-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40898:1" rel="noopener">ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ AU)</a> in 2024.</li>
</ul>


Reportedly cashed-up Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP) is running a ruler over Insurance Australia (IAG AU) or Suncorp (SUN AU), each with market cap of ~A$20bn.
IAG recently (partially) settled its Greensill legal exposure; but hasn't stress tested the remaining cases. Plus its acquisition of RACWA's insurance underwriting arm has entered Phase 2 with the ACCC.
Suncorp is potentially a cleaner play after selling Suncorp Bank to ANZ Group Holdings (ANZ AU) in 2024.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/875bc9d9-4bcf-4494-94b2-993dfe44d8e1?syn-25a6b1a6=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FT reports</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokio-marine-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7591:1" rel="noopener">Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP)</a> has identified <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suncorp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4218:1" rel="noopener">Suncorp (SUN AU)</a> as its preferred acquisition target. Tokio Marine has previously flagged an interest in Australia.</li>
<li>A potential acquisition would likely require approvals from FIRB, APRA and the ACCC. While the process can be lengthy, the approvals should be forthcoming.</li>
<li>My analysis suggests a potential offer price range of A$20.00 to A$21.50 per share, a 3.3% to 11.0% premium to the last close of A$19.37. </li>
</ul>


The FT reports that Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP) has identified Suncorp (SUN AU) as its preferred acquisition target. Tokio Marine has previously flagged an interest in Australia.
A potential acquisition would likely require approvals from FIRB, APRA and the ACCC. While the process can be lengthy, the approvals should be forthcoming.
My analysis suggests a potential offer price range of A$20.00 to A$21.50 per share, a 3.3% to 11.0% premium to the last close of A$19.37. 


Suncorp (SUN AU): Tokio Marine’s Rumoured Preferred Acquisition Target

<ul>
<li>Ongoing developments have been almost exclusively of the risk-on variety ever since we discussed that risk/reward favored buyers in late-October (10/24/23 and 10/31/23 Compass reports).</li>
<li>The latest risk-on developments include the Russell2000 (IWM) and DJI breaking above resistances of $180 and 35,650, to go along with bullish 9-month RS reversals for small-, mid-, and micro-caps.</li>
<li>Breadth improvement and broadening participation was a big reason why we recommended buying the IWM when it was testing $162-$163 support (10/31/23 Compass). We remain bullish</li>
</ul>


Ongoing developments have been almost exclusively of the risk-on variety ever since we discussed that risk/reward favored buyers in late-October (10/24/23 and 10/31/23 Compass reports).
The latest risk-on developments include the Russell2000 (IWM) and DJI breaking above resistances of $180 and 35,650, to go along with bullish 9-month RS reversals for small-, mid-, and micro-caps.
Breadth improvement and broadening participation was a big reason why we recommended buying the IWM when it was testing $162-$163 support (10/31/23 Compass). We remain bullish


Upgrading Real Estate, Transportation to Market Weight; Smid-Caps With Bullish RS Reversals

Japan

Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc., through subsidiaries, offers property, casualty and life insurance, and asset management services.

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Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JP)

Asia-Pac Weekly Wrap: Dentsu Soken, Peet, Carnaby Resources, Reliance Worldwide, Ausgold, Golfzon

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Breakouts Proliferate; Bullish Outlook Intact; Small- And Mid-Caps to Lead?

Breakouts Proliferate; Bullish Outlook Intact; Small- and Mid-Caps to Outperform? $SPX $QQQ $DJI breakout to all-time highs, $IWM $IJH $VXF,...

Vermilion Research

IAG/Suncorp: Tokio Marine Kicking Tyres

According to the FT, Tokio Marine identified Suncorp as its preferred takeover target. This follows Berkshire's recent investment in Tokio Marine,...

David Blennerhassett

Suncorp (SUN AU): Tokio Marine’s Rumoured Preferred Acquisition Target

My analysis suggests a potential offer price range of A$20.00 to A$21.50 per share, a 3.3% to 11.0% premium to the last close of A$19.37.

Arun George

Upgrading Real Estate, Transportation to Market Weight; Smid-Caps With Bullish RS Reversals

Upgrading Real Estate $XLRE $VNQ and Transportation $IYT $XTN to Market Weight; Smid-Caps With Bullish RS Reversals as $SPX, $COMP Take a Pause;...

Vermilion Research

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