ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ)</a> has historically tended to lag its peers within the top four banks in Indonesia, both in terms of returns and risk management plus their digital initiatives have not yet caught the attention of investors. With a new senior management team in place from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ)</a> in place, we think this is about to change. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ)</a>is making good progress on its COVID-19 loan restructuring with a reduction in loans under restructuring of IDR18tn in 1Q20201 versus 4Q2020, with further progress in April.</p>
<p>Credit costs fell significantly in 1Q2021, as did provisions versus 4Q2021. Overall NPLs also improved slightly in 1Q2021 falling to 4.1% of total loans. </p>
<p>One key highlight in 1Q2021 was the decline in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ)</a>'s cost of funds, which hit the lowest level ever at 1.7% in 1Q2021.</p>
<p>This has helped overall net interest margins (NIMs) hold up in 1Q2021, which are now above the bank's FY2021 guidance range.</p>
<p>The key driver for CASA has been the increased number of mobile banking users which have increased significantly.</p>
<p>Loan growth in 1Q2021 was slow at only +2.2% but this was against a slightly negative picture for the overall banking industry, with small business and consumer loans starting to rebound at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ)</a>. </p>
<p>A key focus for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ)</a> is on the digitalization of both its retail and wholesale banking businesses, which we see as a significant growth driver.</p>
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<p>The bank now trades on 0.9x FY21E PBV, 11.6x FY21E PER, and 7.2x FY22E PER, with forecast EPS growth of +186% and +60% for FY21E and FY22E respectively. We continue to expect positive momentum over the coming quarters for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-negara-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8285:1" rel="noopener">Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ)</a> both as the economy recovers and its new strategies continue to gain traction.</p>
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Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ) has historically tended to lag its peers within the top four banks in Indonesia, both in terms of returns and risk management plus their digital initiatives have not yet caught the attention of investors. With a new senior management team in place from Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) in place, we think this is about to change. 
Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ)is making good progress on its COVID-19 loan restructuring with a reduction in loans under restructuring of IDR18tn in 1Q20201 versus 4Q2020, with further progress in April.
Credit costs fell significantly in 1Q2021, as did provisions versus 4Q2021. Overall NPLs also improved slightly in 1Q2021 falling to 4.1% of total loans. 
One key highlight in 1Q2021 was the decline in Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ)'s cost of funds, which hit the lowest level ever at 1.7% in 1Q2021.
This has helped overall net interest margins (NIMs) hold up in 1Q2021, which are now above the bank's FY2021 guidance range.
The key driver for CASA has been the increased number of mobile banking users which have increased significantly.
Loan growth in 1Q2021 was slow at only +2.2% but this was against a slightly negative picture for the overall banking industry, with small business and consumer loans starting to rebound at Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ). 
A key focus for Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ) is on the digitalization of both its retail and wholesale banking businesses, which we see as a significant growth driver.

The bank now trades on 0.9x FY21E PBV, 11.6x FY21E PER, and 7.2x FY22E PER, with forecast EPS growth of +186% and +60% for FY21E and FY22E respectively. We continue to expect positive momentum over the coming quarters for the Bank Negara Indonesia Persero (BBNI IJ) both as the economy recovers and its new strategies continue to gain traction.


Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) - The Happening

Elang Mahkota Teknologi / Equity Bottom-Up

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<p>After the failed attempt to merge with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek</a> and the decision to take the SPAC route to market in the US, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a> has now reportedly taken a 4% stake in local digital and media powerhouse, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a>. It seems unlikely that this is purely a strategic stake and points the way toward future collaboration potentially in a number of areas.</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a> remains a very interesting locally listed alternative to play digital media, e-commerce, and digital payments under one roof, with aspirations to emulate the success of  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a>.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener"></a></p>
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<p>In another related and interesting turn, Bukalapak, which is Indonesia's 3rd largest e-commerce firm 35% owned by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a> has raised an undisclosed sum from BRI Ventures, the venture capital arm of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ)</a>. </p>
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<p>Bukalapak claims that it now has around 13.5m MSMEs on its platform and over 100m users on its online to offline (O20) platform. </p>
<p>The merged <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek (1379371D IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokopedia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24239:1" rel="noopener">Tokopedia PT (1087142D IJ)</a> entity to be named "GoTo" will be a formidable competitor for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a>, a risk not highlighted enough in the seeming euphoria around the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> SPAC listing.</p>
<p>Another significant risk to Grab comes from recently launched ShopeeFood in Indonesia, which will directly impact Grab's (and Gojek's) food delivery business in Indonesia.</p>
<p>From a SotP point of view for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a>, it is difficult to get much beyond a US$4bn valuation but there are those arguing that it should be valued along the same lines as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a>, which would suggest potential significant upside from here.</p>
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After the failed attempt to merge with Gojek and the decision to take the SPAC route to market in the US, Grab (0967655D SP) has now reportedly taken a 4% stake in local digital and media powerhouse, Emtek (EMTK IJ). It seems unlikely that this is purely a strategic stake and points the way toward future collaboration potentially in a number of areas.

Emtek (EMTK IJ) remains a very interesting locally listed alternative to play digital media, e-commerce, and digital payments under one roof, with aspirations to emulate the success of  Sea Ltd (SE US).

In another related and interesting turn, Bukalapak, which is Indonesia's 3rd largest e-commerce firm 35% owned by Emtek (EMTK IJ) has raised an undisclosed sum from BRI Ventures, the venture capital arm of Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ). 

Bukalapak claims that it now has around 13.5m MSMEs on its platform and over 100m users on its online to offline (O20) platform. 
The merged Gojek (1379371D IJ) and Tokopedia PT (1087142D IJ) entity to be named "GoTo" will be a formidable competitor for Grab, a risk not highlighted enough in the seeming euphoria around the Grab SPAC listing.
Another significant risk to Grab comes from recently launched ShopeeFood in Indonesia, which will directly impact Grab's (and Gojek's) food delivery business in Indonesia.
From a SotP point of view for Emtek (EMTK IJ), it is difficult to get much beyond a US$4bn valuation but there are those arguing that it should be valued along the same lines as Sea Ltd (SE US), which would suggest potential significant upside from here.









Emtek (EMTK IJ) - The Indonesian Digital Game of Thrones

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ)</a> released its results over the weekend for FY2020, which saw sales for the year falling by -31.4% YoY to IDR14.8tn. The company achieved a gross profit margin of 41.6%, an operating loss of IDR56.9bn, an EBITDA of IDR2.3tn, with an FY2020 net loss of IDR585bn.</p>
<p>The fall in sales reflected the impact of COVID-19 and the associated lockdowns. To offset this, the company focused on driving its sales online, which saw digital sales increase to 10.3% of revenues, an increase of +236% YoY.</p>
<p>On a more positive note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ)</a> saw its 4Q2020 sales increase by +35.6% QoQ versus 3Q2020, with its gross margin improvements and an operating profit of IDR357bn in 4Q2020 versus a loss of IDR113bn in 3Q2020. It also achieved a significant increase in EBITDA to IDR844bn versus IDR484bn in 3Q2020 plus a net profit of IDR87.2bn versus a net loss of IDR217bn on 3Q2020.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ)</a> sales in 4Q2020 rose considerably in 4Q2020 due to the gradual re-opening of malls together with the impact of the company's Unified Retail Strategy centered around the company's MAP Club loyalty program, which already has 3.7m members.</p>
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<p>The company's sports and leisure subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/map-aktif-adiperkasa-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27291:1" rel="noopener">MAP Aktif Adiperkasa PT (MAPA IJ)</a> saw an even more impressive performance in 4Q2020, with a +43.9% growth in net revenue in 4Q2020 versus 3Q2020.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ)</a> remains one of our top picks to play the gradual recovery in consumer spending and increased mobility, which will help support the recovery in offline channels. At the same time, the company has adjusted through its Unified Retail Strategy to selling more through digital channels, which will continue to underpin future growth given the rapid shift in consumption habits to online channels.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ)</a> trades on 22x FY21E per and 13.9x FY22E PER, as the company moved back to profit in FY21E and is forecast to grow EPS by +58% YoY FY22E. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ)</a> 5-year average forward PER stands at 21x, making the company look attractive at these levels. </p>
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Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) released its results over the weekend for FY2020, which saw sales for the year falling by -31.4% YoY to IDR14.8tn. The company achieved a gross profit margin of 41.6%, an operating loss of IDR56.9bn, an EBITDA of IDR2.3tn, with an FY2020 net loss of IDR585bn.
The fall in sales reflected the impact of COVID-19 and the associated lockdowns. To offset this, the company focused on driving its sales online, which saw digital sales increase to 10.3% of revenues, an increase of +236% YoY.
On a more positive note, Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) saw its 4Q2020 sales increase by +35.6% QoQ versus 3Q2020, with its gross margin improvements and an operating profit of IDR357bn in 4Q2020 versus a loss of IDR113bn in 3Q2020. It also achieved a significant increase in EBITDA to IDR844bn versus IDR484bn in 3Q2020 plus a net profit of IDR87.2bn versus a net loss of IDR217bn on 3Q2020.
Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) sales in 4Q2020 rose considerably in 4Q2020 due to the gradual re-opening of malls together with the impact of the company's Unified Retail Strategy centered around the company's MAP Club loyalty program, which already has 3.7m members.


The company's sports and leisure subsidiary MAP Aktif Adiperkasa PT (MAPA IJ) saw an even more impressive performance in 4Q2020, with a +43.9% growth in net revenue in 4Q2020 versus 3Q2020.
Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) remains one of our top picks to play the gradual recovery in consumer spending and increased mobility, which will help support the recovery in offline channels. At the same time, the company has adjusted through its Unified Retail Strategy to selling more through digital channels, which will continue to underpin future growth given the rapid shift in consumption habits to online channels.
Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) trades on 22x FY21E per and 13.9x FY22E PER, as the company moved back to profit in FY21E and is forecast to grow EPS by +58% YoY FY22E. Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) 5-year average forward PER stands at 21x, making the company look attractive at these levels. 


Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) - Shape-Shifting to Back in Black

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<p>Indonesia's leading transportation and logistics company,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> posted an increase in revenue of over +30% to IDR 3.04tn in 2020. The growth in the company's revenue was supported by the stable performance from all of its business segments but driven by its core car rental business under ASSA rent together with its last-mile courier service, Anteraja.  The company booked a -21% decline in net income in 2020 but we expect profit to see strong growth in the next two years as Anteraja has now broken even.</p>
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<p>Anteraja recorded a significant increase in revenue performance of +842.0% For FY2020, making up around a quarter of<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> 's total revenue versus only 3.5% of sales in 2019. Management predicts that Anteraja should make up over 50% of sales in the next 1-2 years and it has already broken even, which should also make it an important future profit driver. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> has also been developing a number of new initiatives including a car-sharing platform called ShareCar, an online C2C car sales marketplace called Caroline, and a warehouse fulfillment business through Titipaja.</p>
<p>It continues to grow its car rental business and will expand its fleet further in 2021, with an expected recovery in the private sector but also increasing growth in demand from the government.</p>
<p>Its car auction business under JBA Bid Win also saw strong growth in 2020, with strong growth in the second-hand car market. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a> remains an interesting digital transformation story, with huge potential from Anterja to drive future growth but with a stable revenue base coming from its car rental and auction business. It trades on 10.9x FY21E EV/EBITDA and 8.7x FY22E EV/EBITDA and an FY22E PER of 30x but we expect continuing momentum behind the digital growth story. </p>


Indonesia's leading transportation and logistics company, Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) posted an increase in revenue of over +30% to IDR 3.04tn in 2020. The growth in the company's revenue was supported by the stable performance from all of its business segments but driven by its core car rental business under ASSA rent together with its last-mile courier service, Anteraja.  The company booked a -21% decline in net income in 2020 but we expect profit to see strong growth in the next two years as Anteraja has now broken even.

Anteraja recorded a significant increase in revenue performance of +842.0% For FY2020, making up around a quarter of Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) 's total revenue versus only 3.5% of sales in 2019. Management predicts that Anteraja should make up over 50% of sales in the next 1-2 years and it has already broken even, which should also make it an important future profit driver. 
Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) has also been developing a number of new initiatives including a car-sharing platform called ShareCar, an online C2C car sales marketplace called Caroline, and a warehouse fulfillment business through Titipaja.
It continues to grow its car rental business and will expand its fleet further in 2021, with an expected recovery in the private sector but also increasing growth in demand from the government.
Its car auction business under JBA Bid Win also saw strong growth in 2020, with strong growth in the second-hand car market. 
Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) remains an interesting digital transformation story, with huge potential from Anterja to drive future growth but with a stable revenue base coming from its car rental and auction business. It trades on 10.9x FY21E EV/EBITDA and 8.7x FY22E EV/EBITDA and an FY22E PER of 30x but we expect continuing momentum behind the digital growth story. 

Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) - All Aboard for a Digital Ride

Private Capital Markets

<p>It looks increasingly likely that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a> will bite the bullet and forge ahead with a SPAC listing through Altimeter Capital, with a slated valuation of US$35bn, making it the first South-East Asian Unicorn to list apart from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> of course. This would be the largest SPAC listing to date. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a>'s apparent rush to market probably comes with active encouragement from Softbank after its failed attempt to merge with competitor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek (1379371D IJ)</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a> is looking increasingly vulnerable since the announcement that Gojek will merge with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokopedia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24239:1" rel="noopener">Tokopedia PT (1087142D IJ)</a>, creating a much more formidable rival with a strong e-commerce business and a lead in digital payments and finance.</p>
<p>The recent entry of ShopeeFood into the food delivery space in Indonesia is also more of a threat to Grab versus Gojek, given the discounts and free deliveries ShopeeFood is offering. </p>
<p>Using available public information and peer group we look at whether these valuations can be justified for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> SPAC listing. </p>

It looks increasingly likely that Grab (0967655D SP) will bite the bullet and forge ahead with a SPAC listing through Altimeter Capital, with a slated valuation of US$35bn, making it the first South-East Asian Unicorn to list apart from Sea Ltd (SE US) of course. This would be the largest SPAC listing to date. 
Grab (0967655D SP)'s apparent rush to market probably comes with active encouragement from Softbank after its failed attempt to merge with competitor Gojek (1379371D IJ).
Grab (0967655D SP) is looking increasingly vulnerable since the announcement that Gojek will merge with Tokopedia PT (1087142D IJ), creating a much more formidable rival with a strong e-commerce business and a lead in digital payments and finance.
The recent entry of ShopeeFood into the food delivery space in Indonesia is also more of a threat to Grab versus Gojek, given the discounts and free deliveries ShopeeFood is offering. 
Using available public information and peer group we look at whether these valuations can be justified for the Grab SPAC listing. 

Grab - Biting the Bullet with a SPAC Listing?

Indonesia

Tokopedia PT provides e-commerce services. The Company owns and operates an online e-commerce platform that allows individuals and small-to-mid-sized business owners to start their online stores.

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Tokopedia PT (1087142D IJ)

Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) - The Happening

BNI has been the laggard amongst its top four peers in Indonesia but we expect this to change as a new senior management team pushes through new...

Angus Mackintosh

Emtek (EMTK IJ) - The Indonesian Digital Game of Thrones

EMTEK remains the largest locally listed proxy to play digital media, e-commerce, and digital payments in Indonesia. The news that Grab has taken a...

Angus Mackintosh

Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) - Shape-Shifting to Back in Black

MAPI remains one of our top picks for the gradual recovery in consumption in Indonesia. It has successfully shifted a large portion of sales to...

Angus Mackintosh

Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ) - All Aboard for a Digital Ride

ASSA continues to demonstrate its ability to transform from a car leasing company into a transport and logistics operator with increasing exposure...

Angus Mackintosh

Grab - Biting the Bullet with a SPAC Listing?

A SPAC listing for Grab is a quick path to market, which given potential risk factors ahead may be opportune timing wise

Angus Mackintosh

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