ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

A follow-up call with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ)</a> management after it released results to get a better feel for its digital initiatives revealed continuing positive momentum behind the company's "Unified Retail" approach to its business, with its digital presence likely to continue to drive its future growth. 
The company has already put through some aggressive inventory adjustments, which put it in a good position to benefit from the pick-up in sales towards the end of the year, without aggressive blanket promotions.
The drive online is being channeled through MAPclub, which now has 3.25m members, and is the largest loyalty program in Indonesia. This will continue to be a key growth driver for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ)</a> in 2021.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/map-aktif-adiperkasa-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27291:1" rel="noopener">MAP Aktif Adiperkasa PT (MAPA IJ)</a> will continue to benefit from increased health consciousness amongst Indonesians and has an even higher portion of its sales online than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ)</a>. 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ)</a> will launch Boots and Amore Pacific brands in the coming year, which should boost growth and it has dropped some non-performing brands. DigiMAP, the company's online electronics platform, will also be an ongoing growth driver. 
The company is trading on 24.9x FY21E PER and 15.8x FY22E PER versus its 3-year average forward PER of 21x and continues to be our top pick as a play on the retail recovery.

A follow-up call with Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) management after it released results to get a better feel for its digital initiatives revealed continuing positive momentum behind the company's "Unified Retail" approach to its business, with its digital presence likely to continue to drive its future growth. 
The company has already put through some aggressive inventory adjustments, which put it in a good position to benefit from the pick-up in sales towards the end of the year, without aggressive blanket promotions.
The drive online is being channeled through MAPclub, which now has 3.25m members, and is the largest loyalty program in Indonesia. This will continue to be a key growth driver for Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) in 2021.
MAP Aktif Adiperkasa PT (MAPA IJ) will continue to benefit from increased health consciousness amongst Indonesians and has an even higher portion of its sales online than Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ). 
Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) will launch Boots and Amore Pacific brands in the coming year, which should boost growth and it has dropped some non-performing brands. DigiMAP, the company's online electronics platform, will also be an ongoing growth driver. 
The company is trading on 24.9x FY21E PER and 15.8x FY22E PER versus its 3-year average forward PER of 21x and continues to be our top pick as a play on the retail recovery.

Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) - Unifying with the Digital World

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Equity Bottom-Up

The talk that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek (1379371D IJ)</a> are in the advanced stage of merger talks seems to be a reiteration of the earlier chatter and certainly some wishful thinking from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a> and its shareholders perspective in my view. Certainly, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Corp (9434 JP)'</a>s Masayoshi Son has made it known that he would like to see a merger happen.
Not a great surprise, given that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a> is burning more cash than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek (1379371D IJ) </a>to stand still. It also operates on a higher cost base with its headquarters in Singapore. There are sure to be Investment Banks in the background pushing for a deal but this does not mean it will happen.
The amazing performance of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a>, which is up by +880% over the last year and now South East Asia's largest market cap stock at US$90.8bn makes a future listing enticing to realize future value. 
The key will be Indonesia, which is after all the region's largest internet market and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek (1379371D IJ)</a>'s largest market. Surely we should also consider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek (1379371D IJ)</a> shareholders in this? They may not be so willing to relinquish control? 
The overriding battle will continue to be between the Chinese behemoths <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US),</a> which hold stakes in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek (1379371D IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a> respectively. These two companies are engaged in an ongoing land grab in the digital space in South East Asia, and more especially in Indonesia and it seems unlikely that they would be in cahoots with each other.  
It would seem unlikely that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek (1379371D IJ)</a> would relinquish ultimate management control to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a> given the dominance in its home market. It has also been quietly rebranding in the region, which could spell a more aggressive approach outside Indonesia is in the offing.

The talk that Grab (0967655D SP) and Gojek (1379371D IJ) are in the advanced stage of merger talks seems to be a reiteration of the earlier chatter and certainly some wishful thinking from the Grab (0967655D SP) and its shareholders perspective in my view. Certainly, Softbank Corp (9434 JP)'s Masayoshi Son has made it known that he would like to see a merger happen.
Not a great surprise, given that Grab (0967655D SP) is burning more cash than Gojek (1379371D IJ) to stand still. It also operates on a higher cost base with its headquarters in Singapore. There are sure to be Investment Banks in the background pushing for a deal but this does not mean it will happen.
The amazing performance of Sea Ltd (SE US), which is up by +880% over the last year and now South East Asia's largest market cap stock at US$90.8bn makes a future listing enticing to realize future value. 
The key will be Indonesia, which is after all the region's largest internet market and Gojek (1379371D IJ)'s largest market. Surely we should also consider Gojek (1379371D IJ) shareholders in this? They may not be so willing to relinquish control? 
The overriding battle will continue to be between the Chinese behemoths Tencent Holdings (700 HK) and Alibaba Group (BABA US), which hold stakes in Gojek (1379371D IJ) and Grab (0967655D SP) respectively. These two companies are engaged in an ongoing land grab in the digital space in South East Asia, and more especially in Indonesia and it seems unlikely that they would be in cahoots with each other.  
It would seem unlikely that Gojek (1379371D IJ) would relinquish ultimate management control to Grab (0967655D SP) given the dominance in its home market. It has also been quietly rebranding in the region, which could spell a more aggressive approach outside Indonesia is in the offing. 

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a> has announced that it intends to seek approval for A stock split at its AGM on 14th December, the normal reason for which is to improve liquidity in the shares by making a company more accessible for retail investors. We see this as a potential precursor to further corporate actions along the line, involving some form of group restructuring, and this gives the company a more liquid currency to do this.
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This may involve some form of reorganization within the group, which holds its media assets under <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-citra-media-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-stringify-link="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-citra-media-pt-tbk" data-sk="tooltip_parent" rel="noopener">PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ)</a> but a number of other digital economy assets under <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-stringify-link="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" data-sk="tooltip_parent" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a> including a stake in e-commerce player Bukalapak and leading digital payments company Dana (a 50/50 JV with Ant Financial (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a>).
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" target="_blank" data-stringify-link="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microsoft-corp" data-sk="tooltip_parent" rel="noopener">Microsoft Corp (MSFT US)</a> has recently announced it will invest US$100m into Bukalapak, which is now valued at US$3bn.
Looking at the valuation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-stringify-link="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" data-sk="tooltip_parent" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US),</a> which is trading on 13x EV/Sales, it is highly likely the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-stringify-link="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" data-sk="tooltip_parent" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a> can command a higher valuation if it becomes more accessible, given there are no other ways to get listed exposure to Indonesia's booming e-commerce.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a> currently trades on 4.6x FY20E EV/Sales.  Investors are likely to pay a premium for access to a liquid <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a>, with a strong mix of cash-generating media assets and high growth digital assets.  
We also continue to like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-citra-media-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-stringify-link="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-citra-media-pt-tbk" data-sk="tooltip_parent" rel="noopener">PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ),</a> as Indonesia's top media player with an increasingly digital twist through <a href="http://vidio.com/" target="_blank" data-stringify-link="http://Vidio.com" data-sk="tooltip_parent" rel="noopener">Vidio.com</a>. Please see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pt-surya-citra-media-tbk-scma-ij-let-the-games-begin" target="_blank" data-stringify-link="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pt-surya-citra-media-tbk-scma-ij-let-the-games-begin" data-sk="tooltip_parent" rel="noopener">PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) - Let the Games Begin</a> for more details.


Emtek (EMTK IJ) has announced that it intends to seek approval for A stock split at its AGM on 14th December, the normal reason for which is to improve liquidity in the shares by making a company more accessible for retail investors. We see this as a potential precursor to further corporate actions along the line, involving some form of group restructuring, and this gives the company a more liquid currency to do this.

This may involve some form of reorganization within the group, which holds its media assets under PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) but a number of other digital economy assets under Emtek (EMTK IJ) including a stake in e-commerce player Bukalapak and leading digital payments company Dana (a 50/50 JV with Ant Financial (Alibaba Group (BABA US)).
Microsoft Corp (MSFT US) has recently announced it will invest US$100m into Bukalapak, which is now valued at US$3bn.
Looking at the valuation of Sea Ltd (SE US), which is trading on 13x EV/Sales, it is highly likely the Emtek (EMTK IJ) can command a higher valuation if it becomes more accessible, given there are no other ways to get listed exposure to Indonesia's booming e-commerce.
Emtek (EMTK IJ) currently trades on 4.6x FY20E EV/Sales.  Investors are likely to pay a premium for access to a liquid Emtek (EMTK IJ), with a strong mix of cash-generating media assets and high growth digital assets.  
We also continue to like PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ), as Indonesia's top media player with an increasingly digital twist through Vidio.com. Please see PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) - Let the Games Begin for more details.

Emtek (EMTK IJ) - Arise a New Champion of Indonesia Tech?

Matahari Department Store / Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-matahari-department-store" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5230:1" rel="noopener">Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ)</a> released its 3Q2020 results, which saw some improvement in 3Q2020, with a -41.0% decline in gross sales versus a -57.6% decline for 9M2020.
The 9M2020 results were impacted by the fact that most of the company's stores were closed for a six week period during 2Q2020, with 3Q2020 only seeing minimal closures from the second round of PSBB measures, which have now been relaxed.
SSSG fell by a similar -40.9% during 3Q2020 versus a -57.7% decline for 9M2020, again reflecting the pandemic situation.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-matahari-department-store" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5230:1" rel="noopener">Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ)</a> booked a negative EBITDA of (IDR37bn) for 3Q2020 and (IDR99bn) for 9M2020, with a net income loss of IDR259bn, with a negative net income margin -13.4% versus +0.8%  for 3Q19.
We do expect a gradual improvement going into 4Q2020, with the company putting a number of positive initiatives in place to help underpin the recovery, including collaboration with a number of market places. 
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-matahari-department-store" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5230:1" rel="noopener">Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ)</a> valuations look attractive on the face of it, with the company trading on 5.4x and 3.5x PER for FY21E and FY22E respectively, with the company's earnings forecast to recover sharply over the next two years. We would however wait to see a significant pick up in SSSG before becoming more bullish on the outlook. 
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Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) released its 3Q2020 results, which saw some improvement in 3Q2020, with a -41.0% decline in gross sales versus a -57.6% decline for 9M2020.
The 9M2020 results were impacted by the fact that most of the company's stores were closed for a six week period during 2Q2020, with 3Q2020 only seeing minimal closures from the second round of PSBB measures, which have now been relaxed.
SSSG fell by a similar -40.9% during 3Q2020 versus a -57.7% decline for 9M2020, again reflecting the pandemic situation.
Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) booked a negative EBITDA of (IDR37bn) for 3Q2020 and (IDR99bn) for 9M2020, with a net income loss of IDR259bn, with a negative net income margin -13.4% versus +0.8%  for 3Q19.
We do expect a gradual improvement going into 4Q2020, with the company putting a number of positive initiatives in place to help underpin the recovery, including collaboration with a number of market places. 

Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) valuations look attractive on the face of it, with the company trading on 5.4x and 3.5x PER for FY21E and FY22E respectively, with the company's earnings forecast to recover sharply over the next two years. We would however wait to see a significant pick up in SSSG before becoming more bullish on the outlook. 


Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) - Too Early to Be Early

PT Metrodata Electronics / Equity Bottom-Up

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metrodata-electronic-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7184:1" rel="noopener">Metrodata Electronic (MTDL IJ)</a> is a rare value play on Indonesia's digitalization. It benefits not only from offline companies continuing to digitalize processes and infrastructure but also from the rise in e-commerce, digital payments, fintech, and gaming. 
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It is one of the leading Information and Communication Technology (ICT) distribution companies in Indonesia, with strategic alliances with world-class ICT companies, distributing for around 75% of global IT brands to consumer and commercial customers. 
The real driver for growth and profits for the company is coming from the company's solutions and consulting business, where it holds around 20% market share in Indonesia and this is a growing portion of sales and more importantly profits.
The company operates out of one distribution center but has a total of 20 warehouses across Indonesia, covering 150+ cities, with 4,000+ channel partners. 
With the boom in e-commerce, growing at an unprecedented rate globally, with younger and older generations now shopping and using other online services, there is an even greater need for the products that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metrodata-electronic-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7184:1" rel="noopener">Metrodata Electronic (MTDL IJ)</a> distributes.
E-commerce operators continue to drive strong demand for the company's products in order to support their own rapid growth, with increasing needs for IT infrastructure, as well as solutions and consulting services.
Offline companies are also increasingly adopting and embracing the concept of the digital transformation of Industry 4.0. This is a mixture of cloud computing, artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, and advanced analytics that are designed to improve management, business operations, and customer reach by making processes simpler and more accessible than before. 
The company has seen some benefit from COVID-19 as there is little doubt that with companies are obligated to implement WFH procedures, the requirement for a solid IT infrastructure and digital tools are all the more essential.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metrodata-electronic-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7184:1" rel="noopener">Metrodata Electronic (MTDL IJ)</a> has a long track record of sales and profits over the last few years and has also gradually improved margins at the same time. Being a distribution company, net margins remain relatively low at 2.5% but its move towards more consulting and solutions work will help to support and improve margins going forward. 
Valuations look attractive with the company trading on 8.7x FY21E PER, with forecast growth of +15% and +17% over FY21E and FY22E respectively, assuming flat net margins of 2.5%. Its international peers trade on an average of around 16x FY21 PER, which suggests <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metrodata-electronic-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7184:1" rel="noopener">Metrodata Electronic (MTDL IJ)</a> is undervalued, especially given a positive earnings outlook.


Metrodata Electronic (MTDL IJ) is a rare value play on Indonesia's digitalization. It benefits not only from offline companies continuing to digitalize processes and infrastructure but also from the rise in e-commerce, digital payments, fintech, and gaming. 

It is one of the leading Information and Communication Technology (ICT) distribution companies in Indonesia, with strategic alliances with world-class ICT companies, distributing for around 75% of global IT brands to consumer and commercial customers. 
The real driver for growth and profits for the company is coming from the company's solutions and consulting business, where it holds around 20% market share in Indonesia and this is a growing portion of sales and more importantly profits.
The company operates out of one distribution center but has a total of 20 warehouses across Indonesia, covering 150+ cities, with 4,000+ channel partners. 
With the boom in e-commerce, growing at an unprecedented rate globally, with younger and older generations now shopping and using other online services, there is an even greater need for the products that Metrodata Electronic (MTDL IJ) distributes.
E-commerce operators continue to drive strong demand for the company's products in order to support their own rapid growth, with increasing needs for IT infrastructure, as well as solutions and consulting services.
Offline companies are also increasingly adopting and embracing the concept of the digital transformation of Industry 4.0. This is a mixture of cloud computing, artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, and advanced analytics that are designed to improve management, business operations, and customer reach by making processes simpler and more accessible than before. 
The company has seen some benefit from COVID-19 as there is little doubt that with companies are obligated to implement WFH procedures, the requirement for a solid IT infrastructure and digital tools are all the more essential.
Metrodata Electronic (MTDL IJ) has a long track record of sales and profits over the last few years and has also gradually improved margins at the same time. Being a distribution company, net margins remain relatively low at 2.5% but its move towards more consulting and solutions work will help to support and improve margins going forward. 
Valuations look attractive with the company trading on 8.7x FY21E PER, with forecast growth of +15% and +17% over FY21E and FY22E respectively, assuming flat net margins of 2.5%. Its international peers trade on an average of around 16x FY21 PER, which suggests Metrodata Electronic (MTDL IJ) is undervalued, especially given a positive earnings outlook. 

Metrodata Electronic (MTDL IJ) - A Rare Value Play on Indonesia's Digitalization

Indonesia

Tokopedia PT provides e-commerce services. The Company owns and operates an online e-commerce platform that allows individuals and small-to-mid-sized business owners to start their online stores.

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Tokopedia PT (1087142D IJ)

Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) - Unifying with the Digital World

MAPI continues to be our preferred proxy for the Indonesian retail recovery in Indonesia for next year, having successfully harnessed its online...

Angus Mackintosh

Gojek and Grab Merger Wishful Thinking?

The talk that Grab and Gojek are in the advanced stage of merger talks seems to be a reiteration of the earlier chatter and some wishful thinking...

Angus Mackintosh

Emtek (EMTK IJ) - Arise a New Champion of Indonesia Tech?

Emtek recently announced its intention to seek approval for a stock split at its AGM in December. We see this as a precursor for further corporate...

Angus Mackintosh

Matahari Department Store (LPPF IJ) - Too Early to Be Early

Matahari Department Store has one of the most interesting retail franchises in Indonesia but has been impacted by COVID-19 whilst in the midst of a...

Angus Mackintosh

Metrodata Electronic (MTDL IJ) - A Rare Value Play on Indonesia's Digitalization

Metrodata Electronic (MTDL IJ) is a rare value play on the rapid digitalization in Indonesia, which has seen an acceleration driven by the growth...

Angus Mackintosh

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