Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

Pan Pacific International Holdings / Index Rebalance

Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

<ul>
<li>The March 2026 review for the Nikkei 225 is turning out to be a little more interesting than one might have expected a few months ago. </li>
<li>As of the end of August, the 3mo ADTV for Kioxia (285A) was ¥18bn despite expectations it would go into M _ _ _. The 1mo average today? ¥383bn.</li>
<li>That means it has rapidly climbed into the top echelons of 5yr trading history. Importantly, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> are not far behind.</li>
</ul>


The March 2026 review for the Nikkei 225 is turning out to be a little more interesting than one might have expected a few months ago. 
As of the end of August, the 3mo ADTV for Kioxia (285A) was ¥18bn despite expectations it would go into M _ _ _. The 1mo average today? ¥383bn.
That means it has rapidly climbed into the top echelons of 5yr trading history. Importantly, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) and Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) are not far behind.


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 - Kioxia (285A) On the Menu, Others Not Far Behind

<ul>
<li>Today we saw the culmination of the ridiculously wrong-way Nikkei 225 Sep25 rebalance. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> looked like a classic deletion, not addition.</li>
<li>93.3% of the observation period has now passed, which means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy.</li>
<li>It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review from the Consumer Goods sector, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. More below.</li>
</ul>


Today we saw the culmination of the ridiculously wrong-way Nikkei 225 Sep25 rebalance. Shift Inc (3697 JP) looked like a classic deletion, not addition.
93.3% of the observation period has now passed, which means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy.
It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review from the Consumer Goods sector, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. More below.


[Quiddity Index] Oct25 Leaderboard for Nikkei 225 Mar26 Review; One In One Out Likely

<ul>
<li>Today, the results of the Nikkei 225 Sep2025 Periodic Review were announced, discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-index-nikkei-225-sep25-review-shift-3697-in-citizen-watch-7762-out-kokusai-misses" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:200727" rel="noopener">[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Review: Shift (3697) In, Citizen Watch (7762) Out. Kokusai Misses</a>. </li>
<li>That means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy. </li>
<li>It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. As always, more below the fold!</li>
</ul>


Today, the results of the Nikkei 225 Sep2025 Periodic Review were announced, discussed in [Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Review: Shift (3697) In, Citizen Watch (7762) Out. Kokusai Misses. 
That means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy. 
It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. As always, more below the fold!


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 Leaderboards; Probably One IN, One OUT

<ul>
<li>Today, in the latest announcement in 17 years, the Nikkei Index Committee announced there would be only one change to the Nikkei 225 at the 30 Sep close. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> is IN. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citizen-watch-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8571:1" rel="noopener">Citizen Watch (7762 JP)</a> is OUT. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> is uplifted. Sony Financial Spin is out 29 Sep. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a>? MIA. </li>
<li>In dollar terms it is smallish. In ADV terms there are some big changes. And this puts Kokusai Electric back possibly years. </li>
</ul>


Today, in the latest announcement in 17 years, the Nikkei Index Committee announced there would be only one change to the Nikkei 225 at the 30 Sep close. 

Shift Inc (3697 JP) is IN. Citizen Watch (7762 JP) is OUT. BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) is uplifted. Sony Financial Spin is out 29 Sep. Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)? MIA. 
In dollar terms it is smallish. In ADV terms there are some big changes. And this puts Kokusai Electric back possibly years. 


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Review: Shift (3697) In, Citizen Watch (7762) Out. Kokusai Misses

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citizen-watch-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8571:1" rel="noopener">Citizen Watch (7762 JP)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> after the close of trading on 30 September.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting</a>'s PAF will double from 0.5 to 1 and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-financial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:564:1" rel="noopener">Sony Financial Holdings (8729 JP)</a> will be deleted from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">NKY INDEX</a> following the spin-off from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>The index committee has decided not to add <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric</a> to the index despite the stock ranking within the top 75. The deletion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/citizen-watch-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8571:1" rel="noopener">Citizen Watch</a> points to sector balance.</li>
</ul>



Shift Inc (3697 JP) will replace Citizen Watch (7762 JP) in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) after the close of trading on 30 September.

BayCurrent Consulting's PAF will double from 0.5 to 1 and Sony Financial Holdings (8729 JP) will be deleted from the NKY INDEX following the spin-off from Sony Corp (6758 JP). 
The index committee has decided not to add Kokusai Electric to the index despite the stock ranking within the top 75. The deletion of Citizen Watch points to sector balance.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Shift (3697) Replaces Citizen Watch (7762); Kokusai Electric (6525)👎

Japan

Tokuyama Corp produces inorganic and organic industrial chemicals, synthetic res ins, cement, and construction materials.  The Company's product lines include Portland cement, soda chemicals, and polycrystalline silicon.

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Tokuyama Corp (4043 JP)

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 - Kioxia (285A) On the Menu, Others Not Far Behind

The Nikkei 225 Mar-26 rebalance is shaping up to be something different than one might have predicted just a month ago. High volume has trumped the...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Oct25 Leaderboard for Nikkei 225 Mar26 Review; One In One Out Likely

The Sep 2025 Nikkei 225 Rebal was not a "right-way" event for the ADD (Shift (3697)). The March 2026 rebal looks also to be a 1 IN 1 OUT affair,...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 Leaderboards; Probably One IN, One OUT

The Sep25 Nikkei 225 Periodic Review is announced. That means the Mar26 review can be predicted with a fair bit of accuracy. I see one ADD one...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Review: Shift (3697) In, Citizen Watch (7762) Out. Kokusai Misses

The Nikkei Index Committee chose to just change one name. Again disappointing. Kokusai misses out as Shift is added, Citizen Watch removed. ADV...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Shift (3697) Replaces Citizen Watch (7762); Kokusai Electric (6525)👎

SHIFT will replace Citizen Watch in the NKY at the close on 30 Sep. Baycurrent's PAF increases from 0.5 to 1. Sony Financial will be sold on 29...

Brian Freitas

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