Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inpex-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20665:1" rel="noopener">Inpex Corp (1605 JP)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokuyama-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14781:1" rel="noopener">Tokuyama Corp (4043 JP)</a> price ratio has deviated more than three standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Going long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokuyama-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14781:1" rel="noopener">Tokuyama Corp (4043 JP)</a> and short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inpex-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20665:1" rel="noopener">Inpex Corp (1605 JP)</a> targets a 12% return.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The Inpex Corp (1605 JP) vs. Tokuyama Corp (4043 JP) price ratio has deviated more than three standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

Highlights: Going long Tokuyama Corp (4043 JP) and short Inpex Corp (1605 JP) targets a 12% return.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Tokuyama (4043 JP) Vs. Inpex Corp (1605 JP): Statistical Arbitrage Targeting 12%

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>News that mature-node foundry UMC will hike wafer prices is a positive sign for semi’s outside of the AI thematic.</li>
<li>Oil and gas infra companies Chiyoda, Toyo Engineering and JGC on the radar assuming a peace deal will eventually hold.</li>
<li>Kioxia -9.9% and Kokusai -7.2% on Friday likely heading further lower today.</li>
</ul>


News that mature-node foundry UMC will hike wafer prices is a positive sign for semi’s outside of the AI thematic.
Oil and gas infra companies Chiyoda, Toyo Engineering and JGC on the radar assuming a peace deal will eventually hold.
Kioxia -9.9% and Kokusai -7.2% on Friday likely heading further lower today.


Japan Morning Connection: Exuberance Fades Fast as Iran Closes Straits

<ul>
<li>Outperforming memory and NVDA takes a break while semi-cap and AMD related surge.</li>
<li>Wafer names continue to rise with Siltronic +9.2% taking gains to 85% since mid-Sep. Sumco, Shin Etsu and maybe even Tokuyama in focus.</li>
<li>EssilorLuxottica took its Nikon stake up to 10.8% yesterday, but now reports it has approval to take this to 20%. Can squeeze a lot more.</li>
</ul>


Outperforming memory and NVDA takes a break while semi-cap and AMD related surge.
Wafer names continue to rise with Siltronic +9.2% taking gains to 85% since mid-Sep. Sumco, Shin Etsu and maybe even Tokuyama in focus.
EssilorLuxottica took its Nikon stake up to 10.8% yesterday, but now reports it has approval to take this to 20%. Can squeeze a lot more.


Japan Morning Connection: AMD Deal News Sends AI Lurching Higher

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 rebal for September 2026 has three months of data collection left out of the 5-year data period. It's mostly done for now. </li>
<li>The Quiddity team see 2-3 ADDs and 2-3 DELETEs and see Advantest capped. Two Auto ADDs (for now) and one sector ADD but the third delete feels problematic.</li>
<li>Things are moving quickly. Short-term flow ideas not based on tech vs rest of market are mostly meaningless. </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 rebal for September 2026 has three months of data collection left out of the 5-year data period. It's mostly done for now. 
The Quiddity team see 2-3 ADDs and 2-3 DELETEs and see Advantest capped. Two Auto ADDs (for now) and one sector ADD but the third delete feels problematic.
Things are moving quickly. Short-term flow ideas not based on tech vs rest of market are mostly meaningless. 


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal - 2 Auto ADDs, 1 Cap, Probably a Sector ADD

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 Average Index Committee is in something of a weird spot. For the first time in a while there are two potential automatic ADDs. That needs two DELETEs.</li>
<li>But there is also a sector imbalance which is quite fierce. There are 3-4 good candidates going forward. One needs a stock split. There's one auto DELETE, but...</li>
<li>The other DELETEs should come from the Technology sector and they aren't close to the border. There are, however, two cappings in view helping the total towards US$6.9bn one-way flow.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 Average Index Committee is in something of a weird spot. For the first time in a while there are two potential automatic ADDs. That needs two DELETEs.
But there is also a sector imbalance which is quite fierce. There are 3-4 good candidates going forward. One needs a stock split. There's one auto DELETE, but...
The other DELETEs should come from the Technology sector and they aren't close to the border. There are, however, two cappings in view helping the total towards US$6.9bn one-way flow.


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal - 2 Auto ADDs, M-A-Y-B-E 1 Extra, 2 Caps

Japan

Tokuyama Corp produces inorganic and organic industrial chemicals, synthetic res ins, cement, and construction materials.  The Company's product lines include Portland cement, soda chemicals, and polycrystalline silicon.

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Tokuyama Corp (4043 JP)

Tokuyama (4043 JP) Vs. Inpex Corp (1605 JP): Statistical Arbitrage Targeting 12%

Pair trade with a 12% target-return amid significant dislocation of Inpex and Tokuyama. Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion...

Gaudenz Schneider

Japan Morning Connection: Exuberance Fades Fast as Iran Closes Straits

Friday's exuberance fades fast as Iran closes the Straits again. Japan's recent tech winners face more pain while power semis and wafer names start...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: AMD Deal News Sends AI Lurching Higher

AMD surging higher, keeping focus on AI related names. Continued strength for quantum computing names should push Japan's AI SPE names still higher.

Andrew Jackson

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal - 2 Auto ADDs, 1 Cap, Probably a Sector ADD

The Nikkei 225 data period is 95% complete. It looks like two auto ADDs and one auto DELETE. They could add Capcom as a sector add and the question...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal - 2 Auto ADDs, M-A-Y-B-E 1 Extra, 2 Caps

The Nikkei 225 Sep 2026 rebal continues to evolve. The two auto ADDs remain the same. The auto DELETE continues to climb the rankings. Now there is...

Travis Lundy

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