Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

Tokyo Energy & Systems / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Yesterday after the close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electric-power-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15457:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electric Power Co (9501 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-energy-systems-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1830:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Energy &amp; Systems (1945 JP)</a> announced TEPCO would offer up to 3.1mm shares (including greenshoe) in Enesys. </li>
<li>This is not enormous. It is about 9% of shares out. TEPCO will no longer treat it as an equity affiliate and it somewhat frees up the register.</li>
<li>This was better done as a tender offer buyback. Tokyo Enesys is cheap as a capital construct but its equity is tied up where it shouldn't be.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday after the close, Tokyo Electric Power Co (9501 JP) and Tokyo Energy &amp; Systems (1945 JP) announced TEPCO would offer up to 3.1mm shares (including greenshoe) in Enesys. 
This is not enormous. It is about 9% of shares out. TEPCO will no longer treat it as an equity affiliate and it somewhat frees up the register.
This was better done as a tender offer buyback. Tokyo Enesys is cheap as a capital construct but its equity is tied up where it shouldn't be.


[Japan ECM] TEPCO Selling Tokyo Enesys (1945 JP) Shares - Shouldn't Be Surprising

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Feb 6th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD23,298m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Nintendo, Shin-Etsu Chemical, Lasertec, Kioxia, NEC, Advantest, SoftBank, Fujikura, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Recruit, Nintendo, Shin-Etsu Chemical, Lasertec, Kioxia, Nec, Advantest.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Feb 6th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD23,298m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Nintendo, Shin-Etsu Chemical, Lasertec, Kioxia, NEC, Advantest, SoftBank, Fujikura, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, Recruit, Nintendo, Shin-Etsu Chemical, Lasertec, Kioxia, Nec, Advantest.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Feb 6th): Nintendo, Shin-Etsu Chemical, Lasertec, Kioxia, NEC, Advantest

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jan 30th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD24,095m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Advantest, Lasertec, Fujikura, Disco, Tokyo Electron, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Nichirei, SoftBank, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Kioxia, Advantest, Lasertec, Fujikura, Disco, Tokyo Electron.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jan 30th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD24,095m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, Advantest, Lasertec, Fujikura, Disco, Tokyo Electron, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Nichirei, SoftBank, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Kioxia, Advantest, Lasertec, Fujikura, Disco, Tokyo Electron.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jan 30th): Kioxia, Advantest, Lasertec, Fujikura, Disco, Tokyo Electron

David Blennerhassett

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Kalon is unlikely to overbid KKR for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8353:1" rel="noopener">Mandom (4917 JP)</a>. KKR is unlikely to walk despite the earnings guidance revision after the DD.  ¥3,100+ is a fine place to sell.</li>
<li>Panama’s Supreme Court dings <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison (1 HK)</a>'s port concessions. CKH/Beijing won't go down without a fight; and rejigging a deal for the remaining ports will (likely) be perennially delayed.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisamitsu-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17008:1" rel="noopener">Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP)</a>is trading through terms. The family Tender Offer is light, but it likely has enormous crossholder support. They could still claim majority of minority.</li>
</ul>


Kalon is unlikely to overbid KKR for Mandom (4917 JP). KKR is unlikely to walk despite the earnings guidance revision after the DD.  ¥3,100+ is a fine place to sell.
Panama’s Supreme Court dings CK Hutchison (1 HK)'s port concessions. CKH/Beijing won't go down without a fight; and rejigging a deal for the remaining ports will (likely) be perennially delayed.

Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP)is trading through terms. The family Tender Offer is light, but it likely has enormous crossholder support. They could still claim majority of minority.


Last Week In Event SPACE: CK Hutchison, Hisamitsu Pharma, JCNC, Mandom, Sunny Optical, Rio

<ul>
<li>Today during the day, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kandenko-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3726:1" rel="noopener">Kandenko Co Ltd (1942 JP)</a> announced a sharp upward revision to its full-year guidance. Revs+4.6%, OP+27%, NP +32%. It was good. The stock popped. </li>
<li>After the close, major owner (46%) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electric-power-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15457:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electric Power Co (9501 JP)</a> announced a selldown of 12.8% of shares out or 23x ADV. </li>
<li>There is a buyback to cover not quite a quarter of it, and index buying will help with another 10%, but the narrative may have changed here.</li>
</ul>


Today during the day, Kandenko Co Ltd (1942 JP) announced a sharp upward revision to its full-year guidance. Revs+4.6%, OP+27%, NP +32%. It was good. The stock popped. 
After the close, major owner (46%) Tokyo Electric Power Co (9501 JP) announced a selldown of 12.8% of shares out or 23x ADV. 
There is a buyback to cover not quite a quarter of it, and index buying will help with another 10%, but the narrative may have changed here.


[Japan ECM] TEPCO Selling Kandenko (1942) Shares - Earnings Surprised But Narrative Violation?

Japan

Tokyo Electric Power Company, Incorporated generates, transmits, and distributes electricity.  The Company uses hydroelectric, thermal, and nuclear power sources.  Tokyo Electric Power distributes electricity in the Kanto area, which includes the Tokyo metro area, Kanagawa, Chiba, and Saitama prefectures.

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Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO) (9501 JP)

[Japan ECM] TEPCO Selling Tokyo Enesys (1945 JP) Shares - Shouldn't Be Surprising

TEPCO is selling about 1/3 of its stake in Tokyo Enesys, a specialty utilities/infra construction company long tied to TEPCO. The big quasi...

Travis Lundy

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Feb 6th): Nintendo, Shin-Etsu Chemical, Lasertec, Kioxia, NEC, Advantest

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Nintendo (7974 JP), Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063 JP), Lasertec (6920...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jan 30th): Kioxia, Advantest, Lasertec, Fujikura, Disco, Tokyo Electron

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Kioxia (285A JP), Advantest (6857 JP), Lasertec (6920 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Last Week In Event SPACE: CK Hutchison, Hisamitsu Pharma, JCNC, Mandom, Sunny Optical, Rio

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

[Japan ECM] TEPCO Selling Kandenko (1942) Shares - Earnings Surprised But Narrative Violation?

Kandenko announced a salutary earnings guidance revision intraday and the stock spiked but post-close TEPCO announced a share sale. Narrative...

Travis Lundy

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