'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/693/original/2020-09-14_09-50-37.png?1600044664" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158693"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables except as stated: Japan Analytics</div>EQUITY-DRIVEN - Japan's aggregate Shareholders' Equity has appreciated by 45% since 2014 - an annual rate of 5.5% and has been one of the key achievements of the 'Abe era'. For the five years before 2012, Shareholders Equity was unchanged, buffeted by the 2008/9 financial crisis and the 3/11.  Although the equity market has responded well to the change in reserves, Japan's PBR has remained within a range of 1.05 to 1.38 over the last decade and is unchanged compared to 2010. In prior post-bubble 'lost' decades, the average PBR was 1.8 times. In other markets, the rise of intangible assets has called the use of Book/Price as a metric and the S&amp;P 500 PBR is now almost three times that of the Japan aggregate having bottomed at 1.78 in March 2009.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/694/original/File%202020-09-14%2010%2007%2037.jpeg?1600045681" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158694"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: multpl.com</div>BOOK VALUE PER SHARE - In this Insight, we shall look at Japan's larger-cap companies (current market value &gt;¥100 billion) through the 'lens' of book value per share. Our focus will be less on the 'winners' and 'losers' than on those companies that have seen the least change in 'BVPS' over the last seven years. Our share count excludes treasury shares which is to the benefit of companies such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (9432 JP)</a> which has seen a 20% reduction in Net Shares Outstanding, but only a 9% increase in Shareholders' Equity. A BVPS growth metric does, however, flatter serial issuers of equity with declining share prices, such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sosei-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:770:1" rel="noopener">Sosei (4565 JP)</a>.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/696/original/2020-09-14_10-26-48.png?1600046818" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158696"></figure>WINNERS - As many may ask and for the record, our 'winning' thirty companies contains many of Japan's best-performing businesses and 'priciest 'stocks, such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monotaro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15441:1" rel="noopener">Monotaro (3064 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 (2413 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-payment-gateway-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1492:1" rel="noopener">GMO Payment Gateway (3769 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kobe-bussan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4701:1" rel="noopener">Kobe Bussan (3038 JP)</a>. Some of the more surprising entries are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:602:1" rel="noopener">mixi (2121 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electric-power-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15457:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electric Power (9501 JP)</a>.  As an equally-weighted portfolio, this group has outperformed by 30% over one year and by 11% over the last three months.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/697/original/2020-09-14_10-33-13.png?1600047204" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158697"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/698/original/2020-09-14_10-33-41.png?1600047231" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158698"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/701/original/2020-09-14_10-47-56.png?1600048087" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158701"></figure>LOSERS - Our list of losers, who have collectively underperformed by 9% over one year, have many of Japan's weaker business models (shipping, oil &amp; gas, paper, copiers, gaming machines. The list also features some of the less-astute management 'teams' (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba (6502 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan (7201 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin (2503 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lixil-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:454:1" rel="noopener">Lixil (5938 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon (8267 JP)</a>).  Also among the latter are two medical-related business - the now remained <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/h-u-group-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16580:1" rel="noopener">H.U. Group (4544 JP)</a> (formerly Miraca) and recent Bain PE target <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nichii-gakkan-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6790:1" rel="noopener">Nichii Gakkan (9792 JP)</a>.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/706/original/2020-09-14_10-57-45.png?1600048692" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158706"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/707/original/2020-09-14_10-59-22.png?1600048774" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158707"></figure>In the DETAIL section below, we all review the large companies that have seen the least change in BVPS over the last seven years and those with the lowest BVPS volatility over the same period. Our lists contain quite a few surprises.

Source for all charts &amp; tables except as stated: Japan AnalyticsEQUITY-DRIVEN - Japan's aggregate Shareholders' Equity has appreciated by 45% since 2014 - an annual rate of 5.5% and has been one of the key achievements of the 'Abe era'. For the five years before 2012, Shareholders Equity was unchanged, buffeted by the 2008/9 financial crisis and the 3/11.  Although the equity market has responded well to the change in reserves, Japan's PBR has remained within a range of 1.05 to 1.38 over the last decade and is unchanged compared to 2010. In prior post-bubble 'lost' decades, the average PBR was 1.8 times. In other markets, the rise of intangible assets has called the use of Book/Price as a metric and the S&amp;P 500 PBR is now almost three times that of the Japan aggregate having bottomed at 1.78 in March 2009.Source: multpl.comBOOK VALUE PER SHARE - In this Insight, we shall look at Japan's larger-cap companies (current market value &gt;¥100 billion) through the 'lens' of book value per share. Our focus will be less on the 'winners' and 'losers' than on those companies that have seen the least change in 'BVPS' over the last seven years. Our share count excludes treasury shares which is to the benefit of companies such as NTT (9432 JP) which has seen a 20% reduction in Net Shares Outstanding, but only a 9% increase in Shareholders' Equity. A BVPS growth metric does, however, flatter serial issuers of equity with declining share prices, such as Sosei (4565 JP).WINNERS - As many may ask and for the record, our 'winning' thirty companies contains many of Japan's best-performing businesses and 'priciest 'stocks, such as Monotaro (3064 JP), M3 (2413 JP), GMO Payment Gateway (3769 JP), and Kobe Bussan (3038 JP). Some of the more surprising entries are mixi (2121 JP) and Tokyo Electric Power (9501 JP).  As an equally-weighted portfolio, this group has outperformed by 30% over one year and by 11% over the last three months.LOSERS - Our list of losers, who have collectively underperformed by 9% over one year, have many of Japan's weaker business models (shipping, oil &amp; gas, paper, copiers, gaming machines. The list also features some of the less-astute management 'teams' (Toshiba (6502 JP), Nissan (7201 JP), Kirin (2503 JP), Lixil (5938 JP), and Aeon (8267 JP)).  Also among the latter are two medical-related business - the now remained H.U. Group (4544 JP) (formerly Miraca) and recent Bain PE target Nichii Gakkan (9792 JP).In the DETAIL section below, we all review the large companies that have seen the least change in BVPS over the last seven years and those with the lowest BVPS volatility over the same period. Our lists contain quite a few surprises.

🇯🇵 Japan • Every Shareholder Left Behind - The Book Value Per Share Metric

FROM OPERATING TO FINANCING CASH FLOWS -  Having examined Operating Cash Flow in our previous <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-stress-tests-part-2-operating-cash-flow-accruals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40321" rel="noopener">Insight</a>, we shall look into the 'stressors' between Operating Cash Flow and Financing Cash Flow. In our reformulated Cash Flow Statements, cash flows relating to operating activities are divided into Operating Cash Flows and Investing Cash Flows, which comprise Fixed Asset and Inventory Cash Flows.  Free Cash Flow is the sum of Operating Cash Flow, Fixed Asset Cash Flow and Inventory Cash Flow. Inventories are not included in Operating Cash Flow as they are considered discretionary, are often related to Fixed asset Cash Flows, and can be highly seasonal.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/141/225/original/2020-06-21_08-34-07.png?1592698079" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="141225"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>JAPAN WAS FCF POSITIVE IN Q4.. - Despite the decline in Operating Cash Flow in the last quarter (the final quarter of the Fiscal Year for most Japanese companies), Investing Cash Flow was more positive than in any quarter since FY2016-Q4, which also coincided with the last business cycle low. As a result, the aggregate Free Cash Flow for the 3,639 listed non-financial companies (excluding<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener"> Rakuten (4755 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony (6758 JP)</a>) was an impressive ¥8.4 trillion or an annualised yield of 6.4%.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/141/223/original/2020-06-21_08-51-12.png?1592697088" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="141223"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>..AS CAPEX WAS PUT ON HOLD - Seasonally Japanese companies capital expenditures are higher in the second half of the fiscal year- in FY2019, ¥21trillion was added to Operating Assets. In contrast, FY2020 saw a 79% decline in capex to ¥4.4 trillion, all of which was spent in the third quarter. This decline is the most substantial second-half quarter-on-quarter contraction in fixed asset outflows since 2009.   In the DETAIL below, we shall highlight those 'outlier' large-cap companies which are either end of the capex, inventory and Free Cash Flow tables, and focus on those with the greatest intimations of business 'stress'. We have excluded the Real Estate Sector from this analysis due to the inherent volatility of fixed assets and inventory cash flows fo these companies.

FROM OPERATING TO FINANCING CASH FLOWS -  Having examined Operating Cash Flow in our previous Insight, we shall look into the 'stressors' between Operating Cash Flow and Financing Cash Flow. In our reformulated Cash Flow Statements, cash flows relating to operating activities are divided into Operating Cash Flows and Investing Cash Flows, which comprise Fixed Asset and Inventory Cash Flows.  Free Cash Flow is the sum of Operating Cash Flow, Fixed Asset Cash Flow and Inventory Cash Flow. Inventories are not included in Operating Cash Flow as they are considered discretionary, are often related to Fixed asset Cash Flows, and can be highly seasonal.Source: Japan AnalyticsJAPAN WAS FCF POSITIVE IN Q4.. - Despite the decline in Operating Cash Flow in the last quarter (the final quarter of the Fiscal Year for most Japanese companies), Investing Cash Flow was more positive than in any quarter since FY2016-Q4, which also coincided with the last business cycle low. As a result, the aggregate Free Cash Flow for the 3,639 listed non-financial companies (excluding Rakuten (4755 JP), Z Holdings (4689 JP), Japan Post (6178 JP), Softbank Group (9984 JP) and Sony (6758 JP)) was an impressive ¥8.4 trillion or an annualised yield of 6.4%.Source: Japan Analytics..AS CAPEX WAS PUT ON HOLD - Seasonally Japanese companies capital expenditures are higher in the second half of the fiscal year- in FY2019, ¥21trillion was added to Operating Assets. In contrast, FY2020 saw a 79% decline in capex to ¥4.4 trillion, all of which was spent in the third quarter. This decline is the most substantial second-half quarter-on-quarter contraction in fixed asset outflows since 2009.   In the DETAIL below, we shall highlight those 'outlier' large-cap companies which are either end of the capex, inventory and Free Cash Flow tables, and focus on those with the greatest intimations of business 'stress'. We have excluded the Real Estate Sector from this analysis due to the inherent volatility of fixed assets and inventory cash flows fo these companies.

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 3 - Inventory, Fixed Asset & Free Cash Flows

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/139/255/original/2020-06-11_08-36-54.png?1591832240" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="139255"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>STRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through the current euphoria and assess where business risk is concentrated among larger Japanese companies. According to Tokyo Shoko Research, 171 listed Japanese firms have raised nearly ¥10 trillion in new funds to weather COVID-19.ALTMAN Z-SCORES - The first Insight will update our earlier Who's<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-who-s-swimming-naked-part-2-altman-z-score" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37316" rel="noopener"> Swimming Naked?</a> Insight and focus on the Altman Z-Score as updated for the most recent quarterly results for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies.  In each category, ee will look at both the companies that are below Altman's 'distress' levels and those companies that have the most significant negative deviation from their seven-year average score. Only six of the bottom-thirty manufacturing and five of the bottom-thirty manufacturing companies have outperformed over one year. Many are already Oversold and offer potential value opportunities -as with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan Motor (7201 JP)</a> which is now as distressed as when Carlos Ghosn first arrived.  QUASI-FINANCIAL FIRMS - The Z-Score methodology does not work for financial firms. Accordingly, five non-financial companies which have significant financial subsidiaries -  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony (6758 JP)</a>- have been excluded from this analysis.

Source: Japan AnalyticsSTRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through the current euphoria and assess where business risk is concentrated among larger Japanese companies. According to Tokyo Shoko Research, 171 listed Japanese firms have raised nearly ¥10 trillion in new funds to weather COVID-19.ALTMAN Z-SCORES - The first Insight will update our earlier Who's Swimming Naked? Insight and focus on the Altman Z-Score as updated for the most recent quarterly results for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies.  In each category, ee will look at both the companies that are below Altman's 'distress' levels and those companies that have the most significant negative deviation from their seven-year average score. Only six of the bottom-thirty manufacturing and five of the bottom-thirty manufacturing companies have outperformed over one year. Many are already Oversold and offer potential value opportunities -as with Nissan Motor (7201 JP) which is now as distressed as when Carlos Ghosn first arrived.  QUASI-FINANCIAL FIRMS - The Z-Score methodology does not work for financial firms. Accordingly, five non-financial companies which have significant financial subsidiaries -  Rakuten (4755 JP), Z Holdings (4689 JP), Japan Post (6178 JP), Softbank Group (9984 JP) and Sony (6758 JP)- have been excluded from this analysis. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 1 - Altman Z-Scores

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/125/647/original/2020-03-31_04-53-29.png?1585598052" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="125647"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>MONDAY 30th MARCH - As the Government of Japan and the Governor of Tokyo toy with ending its Swedish-style limited containment protocol, eleven quarterly results and twenty-one companies released initial forecasts or revised previous forecasts. The already-loss-making <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/joyfull-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17505:1" rel="noopener">Joyfull (9942 JP)</a>restaurant chain withdrew its full-year forecasts and is undecided on any dividend payment for the year. In terms of our scoring system, the ratio of positive to negative 'scores' was 6:12, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-electric-power-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15457:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Electric Power (9501 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mochida-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3655:1" rel="noopener">Mochida Pharmaceutical (4534 JP)</a>being the largest negative-scoring companies by market cap.  A renewed bout of Yen strength is not helpful, although the collapse in oil prices helped the Utilities Sector; however, TEPCO's downgrade will likely curb that enthusiasm today. Turnover was light as the Value Trade Ratio dropped to 59 bps. As a result, the Bank of Japan's fourth ¥200b intervention represented 6.3% of TOPIX Value Traded, a new record.

Source • Japan AnalyticsMONDAY 30th MARCH - As the Government of Japan and the Governor of Tokyo toy with ending its Swedish-style limited containment protocol, eleven quarterly results and twenty-one companies released initial forecasts or revised previous forecasts. The already-loss-making Joyfull (9942 JP)restaurant chain withdrew its full-year forecasts and is undecided on any dividend payment for the year. In terms of our scoring system, the ratio of positive to negative 'scores' was 6:12, with Tokyo Electric Power (9501 JP) and Mochida Pharmaceutical (4534 JP)being the largest negative-scoring companies by market cap.  A renewed bout of Yen strength is not helpful, although the collapse in oil prices helped the Utilities Sector; however, TEPCO's downgrade will likely curb that enthusiasm today. Turnover was light as the Value Trade Ratio dropped to 59 bps. As a result, the Bank of Japan's fourth ¥200b intervention represented 6.3% of TOPIX Value Traded, a new record.      

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Update - 30th March

Quantitative Analysis

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/121/814/original/naakt-jpg.png?1583659197" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="121814"></figure>Source  • <a href="https://hollandbesthotels.wordpress.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://hollandbesthotels.wordpress.com/</a>
</div><blockquote><a href="http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/2001ar/2001letter.html" target="_blank" aria-describedby="external-disclaimer" rel="noopener">“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out. “</a>- Warren Buffett</blockquote>WHO'S SWIMMING NAKED? - This is the first part of three Insights that will in the spirit of Buffett's famous quip, attempt to highlight those Japanese companies that at the greatest risk from the 2020 Covid-19 recession. We will focus on three factors - the Audit Score, the Altman Z-Score and Cumulative Cash Flows - that individually, and in combination, can highlight those companies most at risk.<hr><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/121/877/original/2020-03-09_07-18-54.png?1583705968" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="121877"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>PART 1: AUDIT SCORE - This factor is 'hiding in plain sight'. Since 2003, the Auditors' Opinion has been available in a format that allows 'parsing' into a database format and the creation of an 'Audit Score'. Although often a coincident rather than a leading indicator, by cumulating the score from year to year, patterns can emerge that highlight unfolding risks as in the case of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/leopalace21-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8244:1" rel="noopener">Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP)</a> above.


Source  • https://hollandbesthotels.wordpress.com/
“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out. “- Warren BuffettWHO'S SWIMMING NAKED? - This is the first part of three Insights that will in the spirit of Buffett's famous quip, attempt to highlight those Japanese companies that at the greatest risk from the 2020 Covid-19 recession. We will focus on three factors - the Audit Score, the Altman Z-Score and Cumulative Cash Flows - that individually, and in combination, can highlight those companies most at risk.Source • Japan AnalyticsPART 1: AUDIT SCORE - This factor is 'hiding in plain sight'. Since 2003, the Auditors' Opinion has been available in a format that allows 'parsing' into a database format and the creation of an 'Audit Score'. Although often a coincident rather than a leading indicator, by cumulating the score from year to year, patterns can emerge that highlight unfolding risks as in the case of Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP) above.   

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Who's Swimming Naked? > Part 1: Audit Score

Japan

Tokyo Electric Power Company, Incorporated generates, transmits, and distributes electricity.  The Company uses hydroelectric, thermal, and nuclear power sources.  Tokyo Electric Power distributes electricity in the Kanto area, which includes the Tokyo metro area, Kanagawa, Chiba, and Saitama prefectures.

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Tokyo Electric Power Co (9501 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 3 - Inventory, Fixed Asset & Free Cash Flows

FROM OPERATING TO FINANCING CASH FLOWS - Having examined Operating Cash Flow in our previous Insight, we shall look into the 'stressors' between...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 1 - Altman Z-Scores

STRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Update - 30th March

MONDAY 30th MARCH - As the Government of Japan and the Governor of Tokyo toy with ending its Swedish-style limited containment protocol, eleven...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Who's Swimming Naked? > Part 1: Audit Score

“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out. “- Warren BuffettWHO'S SWIMMING NAKED? - This is the first part of three Insights...

Campbell Gunn

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🇯🇵 Japan • Every Shareholder Left Behind - The Book Value Per Share Metric

EQUITY-DRIVEN - Japans

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 3 - Inventory, Fixed Asset & Free Cash Flows

FROM OPERATING TO FINANCING CASH FLOWS - Having examined Operating Cash Flow in our previous Insight, we shall look into the 'stressors' between...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 1 - Altman Z-Scores

STRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Update - 30th March

MONDAY 30th MARCH - As the Government of Japan and the Governor of Tokyo toy with ending its Swedish-style limited containment protocol, eleven...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Who's Swimming Naked? > Part 1: Audit Score

“You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out. “- Warren BuffettWHO'S SWIMMING NAKED? - This is the first part of three Insights...

Campbell Gunn