Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Meta on a 20-day winning steak with humanoid robots into the mix.</li>
<li>Yakult's spike on Friday and subsequent drop may point to more upside given big shareholder returns.</li>
<li>Olympus facing a much harsher reality in China than management were initially suggesting.</li>
</ul>


Meta on a 20-day winning steak with humanoid robots into the mix.
Yakult's spike on Friday and subsequent drop may point to more upside given big shareholder returns.
Olympus facing a much harsher reality in China than management were initially suggesting.


Japan Morning Connection: AMAT Pricing in Friday Sets Soft Tone for JP SPE

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> as part of the March rebalance should be announced in just over 2 weeks. We expect 2-3 changes at the review.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have massively outperformed the forecast deletes and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei225 Index</a> over every time period going back 3 months with the largest outperformance in the last month.</li>
<li>Positioning appears to be stretched in one forecast add while there appears to be under positioning in a couple of the forecast deletes.</li>
</ul>


The changes to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) as part of the March rebalance should be announced in just over 2 weeks. We expect 2-3 changes at the review.
The forecast adds have massively outperformed the forecast deletes and the Nikkei225 Index over every time period going back 3 months with the largest outperformance in the last month.
Positioning appears to be stretched in one forecast add while there appears to be under positioning in a couple of the forecast deletes.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Sumco to stop silicon wafer production at Miyazaki plant by 2026, impacting supply chain for semiconductor industry.</li><li>MediaTek experiences revenue spike in January due to tariff uncertainty and Chinese subsidies, indicating potential market volatility.</li><li>Pegatron maintains consistent performance in January amid transition period, highlighting company stability.</li></ul>

Sumco to stop silicon wafer production at Miyazaki plant by 2026, impacting supply chain for semiconductor industry.MediaTek experiences revenue spike in January due to tariff uncertainty and Chinese subsidies, indicating potential market volatility.Pegatron maintains consistent performance in January amid transition period, highlighting company stability.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (12-Feb-2025): Sumco to cease Miyazaki plant's wafer production by 2026.

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan, Vantage Capital Markets Japan

François-Xavier Pustoc'h

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan

Independent Financial Broker

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

We provide world class financial solutions to our extensive institutional client base including rapidly growing corporations, leading investment banks, commercial banks, asset managers, private equity funds, family offices and hedge funds.

Our services include capital market offerings and placements, wholesale brokerage and execution of cash and derivative products (both listed and OTC) across a range of asset classes.

VCM has offices in London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Dubai from where we service our global client base. Our strength lies in the experience and quality of our teams, supported by excellent operations and infrastructure.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On January 31st, Nikkei released a note “<a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20250131E_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Regarding the Capping Ratio of Fast Retailing in Nikkei </a><a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/news/20250131E_1.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">225</a>” about the change in capping ratio of Fast Retailing (9983.T) in the Nikkei 225 index.</li>
<li>As per the <a href="https://indexes.nikkei.co.jp/nkave/archives/file/nikkei_stock_average_guidebook_en.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nikkei Stock Average Index Guidebook</a> (cf. below) the capping ratio will be changed from 0.9 to 0.8 from April 1st, 2025.</li>
<li>The change in the capping ratio is meant to change the weight of the shares from the current 11.18% to below the cap threshold of 10%. </li>
</ul>


On January 31st, Nikkei released a note “Regarding the Capping Ratio of Fast Retailing in Nikkei 225” about the change in capping ratio of Fast Retailing (9983.T) in the Nikkei 225 index.
As per the Nikkei Stock Average Index Guidebook (cf. below) the capping ratio will be changed from 0.9 to 0.8 from April 1st, 2025.
The change in the capping ratio is meant to change the weight of the shares from the current 11.18% to below the cap threshold of 10%. 


Capping Ratio of Fast Retailing in Nikkei 225

<ul>
<li>Coherent, SMCI, Entegris all posting solid gains, while Skyworks priced in its poor outlook for its Apple biz.</li>
<li>Monolithic as much as +19% post market setting a better tone for power/analog semi related. Renesas +12.6% yesterday also.</li>
<li>Tokyo Electron numbers mixed but positive overall and any weakness at the open a good chance for dip buying.</li>
</ul>


Coherent, SMCI, Entegris all posting solid gains, while Skyworks priced in its poor outlook for its Apple biz.
Monolithic as much as +19% post market setting a better tone for power/analog semi related. Renesas +12.6% yesterday also.
Tokyo Electron numbers mixed but positive overall and any weakness at the open a good chance for dip buying.


Japan Morning Connection: Mixed Read from the US but Direction Pointing Higher

Japan

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

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Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: AMAT Pricing in Friday Sets Soft Tone for JP SPE

Meta continues winning streak with announcment of AI humanoid robots, Yakult's might have room for upside, and Olympus faces a harsher reality in...

Andrew Jackson

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning

The forecast adds have strongly outperformed the forecast deletes over the last month. Positioning appears stretched in 1 add while there is under...

Brian Freitas

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (12-Feb-2025): Sumco to cease Miyazaki plant's wafer production by 2026.

Sumco to cease silicon wafer production in Miyazaki by 2026, MediaTek revenue up in January, Pegatron steady amid transition, Trump imposes steel...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Capping Ratio of Fast Retailing in Nikkei 225

On January 31st, Nikkei released a note “Regarding the Capping Ratio of Fast Retailing in Nikkei 225” about the change in capping ratio of Fast...

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

Japan Morning Connection: Mixed Read from the US but Direction Pointing Higher

Skyworks priced in poor outlook for its Apple business. Market sets a better tone for power/anolog semi related. Any weakness in Tokyo Electron a...

Andrew Jackson

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Japan Morning Connection: AMAT Pricing in Friday Sets Soft Tone for JP SPE

​Meta continues winning streak with announcment of AI humanoid robots, Yakult's might have room for upside, and Olympus faces a harsher reality in...

Andrew Jackson

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning

The forecast adds have strongly outperformed the forecast deletes over the last month. Positioning appears stretched in 1 add while there is under...

Brian Freitas

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (12-Feb-2025): Sumco to cease Miyazaki plant's wafer production by 2026.

Sumco to cease silicon wafer production in Miyazaki by 2026, MediaTek revenue up in January, Pegatron steady amid transition, Trump imposes steel...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Capping Ratio of Fast Retailing in Nikkei 225

On January 31st, Nikkei released a note “Regarding the Capping Ratio of Fast Retailing in Nikkei 225” about the change in capping ratio of Fast...

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

Japan Morning Connection: Mixed Read from the US but Direction Pointing Higher

Skyworks priced in poor outlook for its Apple business. Market sets a better tone for power/anolog semi related. Any weakness in Tokyo Electron a...

Andrew Jackson

Meta continues winning streak with announcment of AI humanoid robots, Yakult's might have room for upside, and Olympus faces a harsher reality in...