Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The Bank of Japan is caught between a rock and a hard place</li>
<li>The JPY's only hope is a US recession and lower US interest rates</li>
<li>Japan's inflation problem to resume as imported inflation bites into purchasing power once again</li>
</ul>


The Bank of Japan is caught between a rock and a hard place
The JPY's only hope is a US recession and lower US interest rates
Japan's inflation problem to resume as imported inflation bites into purchasing power once again


Executive Director, Metrical Inc

Aki Matsumoto

Executive Director

Independent Leading Corporate Governance Research

Metrical Inc

METRICAL INC. is an independent leading Corporate Governance research firm in Japan where Corporate Governance is increasingly recognized as an important element on corporate management in these days. Thus, CG research and solutions would become an essential component of global capital markets and play important to contribute to transparency of the markets and maximize shareholders’ value in Japan. 

METRICAL INC. provides Corporate Governance research and analysis including rating services, and  also offers investment research and IR services with solutions and customized profound research on CG and IR issues.

<ul>
<li>The pace of share repurchases in 2023 (+1.4%, YoY) is not sufficient compared to the increase in corporate profits, and there is much room for reconsideration of cash allocations.</li>
<li>In Japan, where many manufacturers keep CapEx within the depreciation, it's more important to verify whether shareholder return is appropriate on a cash basis rather than a net income basis.</li>
<li>Companies that fail to formulate measures to generate ROE that exceeds the cost of capital in accordance with TSE requests are not able to achieve an appropriate cash allocation.</li>
</ul>


The pace of share repurchases in 2023 (+1.4%, YoY) is not sufficient compared to the increase in corporate profits, and there is much room for reconsideration of cash allocations.
In Japan, where many manufacturers keep CapEx within the depreciation, it's more important to verify whether shareholder return is appropriate on a cash basis rather than a net income basis.
Companies that fail to formulate measures to generate ROE that exceeds the cost of capital in accordance with TSE requests are not able to achieve an appropriate cash allocation.


Shareholder Returns Should Be Examined on a Cash Basis, Not on a Net Profit Basis

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/disco-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15817:1" rel="noopener">DISCO (6146 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/socionext-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36351:1" rel="noopener">Socionext (6526 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO (3092 JP)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takara-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11074:1" rel="noopener">Takara Holdings (2531 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-osaka-cement-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20460:1" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Osaka Cement (5232 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-metals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3439:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Metals (5541 JP)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitori-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20386:1" rel="noopener">Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)</a>'s PAF will increase from 0.3 to 0.5, and surprisingly there is no PAF adjustment for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zozo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1" rel="noopener">ZOZO Inc (3092 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>Passive trackers need to buy between 1-18 days of ADV on the adds while selling between 2.7-28 days of ADV on the deletes. There is a big funding trade too.</li>
</ul>



DISCO (6146 JP), Socionext (6526 JP) and ZOZO (3092 JP) will replace Takara Holdings (2531 JP), Sumitomo Osaka Cement (5232 JP) and Pacific Metals (5541 JP) in the Nikkei 225.

Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)'s PAF will increase from 0.3 to 0.5, and surprisingly there is no PAF adjustment for ZOZO Inc (3092 JP). 
Passive trackers need to buy between 1-18 days of ADV on the adds while selling between 2.7-28 days of ADV on the deletes. There is a big funding trade too.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: DISCO, Socionext, ZOZO In; PacMetals, Sumitomo Osaka, Takara Holding Out

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For years I have tracked investor category flows in Japanese stocks because I find them quite informative. I write about them every so often in an insight series JAPAN FLOW.</li>
<li>The series, which I have written about for years, suggests foreign investors invest in Japan pro-cyclically and that correlates well to One (relatively) Simple Indicator.</li>
<li>Foreigners have a lot of ammunition left. But cross-holding unwinds are picking up, and buybacks are too, and dividend reinvestments are smaller than public pension selling. Which way next?</li>
</ul>


For years I have tracked investor category flows in Japanese stocks because I find them quite informative. I write about them every so often in an insight series JAPAN FLOW.
The series, which I have written about for years, suggests foreign investors invest in Japan pro-cyclically and that correlates well to One (relatively) Simple Indicator.
Foreigners have a lot of ammunition left. But cross-holding unwinds are picking up, and buybacks are too, and dividend reinvestments are smaller than public pension selling. Which way next?


JAPAN FLOW: Foreigners Vs Cross-Holding Unwinds Vs Buybacks Vs Pensions

<ul>
<li>Companies with the highest Disclosure in English scores have the highest ROE, Tobin's Q, Market Capitalization, and Foreign Shareholder Ratio, while companies with the lowest scores have the lowest values.</li>
<li>Companies with the highest Disclosure in English scores also show generally higher Board Practices and Key Actions. Both Disclosure in English and these practices are the result of engagement efforts.</li>
<li>If Disclosure in English and corporate governance efforts are advanced through engagement, it can be hypothesized that profitability will also increase through engagement with overseas investors.</li>
</ul>


Companies with the highest Disclosure in English scores have the highest ROE, Tobin's Q, Market Capitalization, and Foreign Shareholder Ratio, while companies with the lowest scores have the lowest values.
Companies with the highest Disclosure in English scores also show generally higher Board Practices and Key Actions. Both Disclosure in English and these practices are the result of engagement efforts.
If Disclosure in English and corporate governance efforts are advanced through engagement, it can be hypothesized that profitability will also increase through engagement with overseas investors.


First Step in Engagement in Term of Listening to Overseas Investors Is Seeking Disclosure in English

Japan

The TOPIX, also known as the Tokyo Stock Price Index, is a capitalization-weighted index of all companies listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The index is supplemented by the subindices of the 33 industry sectors. The index calculation excludes temporary issues and preferred stocks, and has a base value of 100 as of January 4, 1968.

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)

Whither the Yen?

The Bank of Japan is between a rock and a hard place as a servicing a high debt load takes preference over inflation and weak consumption. JPY...

Rikki Malik

Shareholder Returns Should Be Examined on a Cash Basis, Not on a Net Profit Basis

I would like to discuss the issues on the January 30 Nikkei article, "Share Buybacks to Top 9.6 Trillion Yen in 2023, Aggressive Shareholder...

Metrical Inc

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: DISCO, Socionext, ZOZO In; PacMetals, Sumitomo Osaka, Takara Holding Out

The adds are all up since announcement, led by Zozo. Nitori is up too even though the upweight was knows. Two of the three deletes are lower....

Brian Freitas

JAPAN FLOW: Foreigners Vs Cross-Holding Unwinds Vs Buybacks Vs Pensions

Moving forward in time, we have more foreign buying, and coming up this week, we have both a large net buying event for dividend reinvestment on...

Travis Lundy

First Step in Engagement in Term of Listening to Overseas Investors Is Seeking Disclosure in English

I would like to discuss the issues on the analysis the characteristics of companies in profitability, valuation and corporate governance practices...

Metrical Inc

Whither the Yen?

​The Bank of Japan is between a rock and a hard place as a servicing a high debt load takes preference over inflation and weak consumption. JPY...

Rikki Malik

Shareholder Returns Should Be Examined on a Cash Basis, Not on a Net Profit Basis

I would like to discuss the issues on the January 30 Nikkei article, "Share Buybacks to Top 9.6 Trillion Yen in 2023, Aggressive Shareholder...

Metrical Inc

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: DISCO, Socionext, ZOZO In; PacMetals, Sumitomo Osaka, Takara Holding Out

The adds are all up since announcement, led by Zozo. Nitori is up too even though the upweight was knows. Two of the three deletes are lower....

Brian Freitas

JAPAN FLOW: Foreigners Vs Cross-Holding Unwinds Vs Buybacks Vs Pensions

Moving forward in time, we have more foreign buying, and coming up this week, we have both a large net buying event for dividend reinvestment on...

Travis Lundy

First Step in Engagement in Term of Listening to Overseas Investors Is Seeking Disclosure in English

I would like to discuss the issues on the analysis the characteristics of companies in profitability, valuation and corporate governance practices...

Metrical Inc

The Bank of Japan is between a rock and a hard place as a servicing a high debt load takes preference over inflation and weak consumption. JPY...