External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We expect Tongcheng Travel (TC) to deliver solid 4Q23E results, with revenue +87% YoY and NPM at 17% (in line with prior estimates).</li><li>During the New Year’s Eve holiday, TC saw eye-catching growth, attributable to well-performed accommodation and in-line transportation.</li><li>The strong CNY momentum may continue for a longer period with strong return-home demand, in our view. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We expect Tongcheng Travel (TC) to deliver solid 4Q23E results, with revenue +87% YoY and NPM at 17% (in line with prior estimates).During the New Year’s Eve holiday, TC saw eye-catching growth, attributable to well-performed accommodation and in-line transportation.The strong CNY momentum may continue for a longer period with strong return-home demand, in our view. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) – Robust Travel Demand in FY24E

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)</a> is expected to replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32157:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (9698 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> at the March review.</li>
<li>Constituent changes and capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of 2.32% and that will result in a round-trip trade of US$628m.</li>
<li>Short interest on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)</a> is near its lows while there has been some recent short covering in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gds-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32157:1" rel="noopener">GDS Holdings (9698 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>



Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) is expected to replace GDS Holdings (9698 HK) in the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) at the March review.
Constituent changes and capping changes will result in a one-way turnover of 2.32% and that will result in a round-trip trade of US$628m.
Short interest on Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) is near its lows while there has been some recent short covering in GDS Holdings (9698 HK). 


HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) Could Replace GDS (9698 HK)

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>Chinese tourists are back, and the Thai government has launched a series of initiatives to woo them back.</li>
<li>Discounts to airlines offered by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airports-of-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:239:1" rel="noopener">Airports of Thailand (AOT TB)</a> will not hurt earnings much, although if extended for &gt;12 months,  AOT earnings could lag their peers.</li>
<li>Valuation is still expensive, although it is expected to normalize once earnings are back. Collapse the RV trade against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/malaysia-airports-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:117:1" rel="noopener">Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK)</a> and buy for the short term.</li>
</ul>


Chinese tourists are back, and the Thai government has launched a series of initiatives to woo them back.
Discounts to airlines offered by Airports of Thailand (AOT TB) will not hurt earnings much, although if extended for &gt;12 months,  AOT earnings could lag their peers.
Valuation is still expensive, although it is expected to normalize once earnings are back. Collapse the RV trade against Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK) and buy for the short term.


Airport of Thailand (AOT): Near Term Gain

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

<ul>
<li>"Pent-Up demand"? No signs of it anywhere in outbound or domestic metrics</li>
<li>Sluggish outbound demand, capacity trajectories continued to lag in November</li>
<li>YTD share performance weak, mirrors disappointing recovery in travel activity</li>
</ul>


"Pent-Up demand"? No signs of it anywhere in outbound or domestic metrics
Sluggish outbound demand, capacity trajectories continued to lag in November
YTD share performance weak, mirrors disappointing recovery in travel activity


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | No "Pent-Up Demand"! | Weak YTD Returns, Too | (December 2023)

<ul>
<li>It was a busy week with rebalance implementations at the close of trading on Thursday in Korea and then across the region on Friday.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a> changes should be announced this week and the Yuanta TW Div+ ETF will continue to implement the changes till Thursday.</li>
<li>There were inflows to China ETFs during the week while there were big outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> ETFs.</li>
</ul>


It was a busy week with rebalance implementations at the close of trading on Thursday in Korea and then across the region on Friday.
The SET 50 Index changes should be announced this week and the Yuanta TW Div+ ETF will continue to implement the changes till Thursday.
There were inflows to China ETFs during the week while there were big outflows from Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) ETFs.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSTECH, SIG/CWG, KQ150, REPT BATTERO

Hong Kong

Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited is an investment holding company providing travel-related services in the People's Republic of China. It offers accommodation reservation, transportation ticketing, online advertising, hotel management, tourist attraction tickets, and packaged tours through its online platforms, mobile apps, and websites. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Suzhou, the People's Republic of China.

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Tongcheng Travel (780 HK)