HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Tongcheng Travel Holdings  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The upcoming Chinese New Year travel rush is expected to see air passenger volume reach 80m, a 9.8% increase vs. 2019. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)</a> is a key beneficiary.</li>
<li>In addition to air ticket booking, Tongcheng can gain from demand for related services and products. The focus on lower-tier cities will make it better satisfy their demand. </li>
<li>Its FY24F PER of 15.2x is lower than sector average of 16.4x, yet 3-year EPS CAGR of 30.7% is higher. Its underperformance against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> can be reversed.</li>
</ul>


The upcoming Chinese New Year travel rush is expected to see air passenger volume reach 80m, a 9.8% increase vs. 2019. Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) is a key beneficiary.
In addition to air ticket booking, Tongcheng can gain from demand for related services and products. The focus on lower-tier cities will make it better satisfy their demand. 
Its FY24F PER of 15.2x is lower than sector average of 16.4x, yet 3-year EPS CAGR of 30.7% is higher. Its underperformance against Trip.com (TCOM US) can be reversed.


<ul>
<li>While adjusted net profit of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-elong-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings Ltd (780 HK)</a> plummeted in 4Q22, the positive momentum in 1Q23 as revealed supports a sharp recovery in FY23.</li>
<li>Its huge exposure to lower-tier cities will fuel outlook while increase in monetisation will support profitability rebound. Success at Blackwhale membership program is another growth engine.  </li>
<li>Management is confident that revenue growth and better efficiency will lead the return of FY23 margin to pre-pandemic levels. Net cash position (12% of share price) is an added strength. </li>
</ul>


While adjusted net profit of Tongcheng Travel Holdings Ltd (780 HK) plummeted in 4Q22, the positive momentum in 1Q23 as revealed supports a sharp recovery in FY23.
Its huge exposure to lower-tier cities will fuel outlook while increase in monetisation will support profitability rebound. Success at Blackwhale membership program is another growth engine.  
Management is confident that revenue growth and better efficiency will lead the return of FY23 margin to pre-pandemic levels. Net cash position (12% of share price) is an added strength. 


Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Best for Capturing Lower-Tier Cities' Growth

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>For 1Q25E, we expect Tongcheng Travel (TC) would record revenue of RMB4.35bn, up 12% YoY, and ink non-GAAP net profit of RMB737mn, up 32% YoY, both inline with Bloomberg consensus.</li><li>We reiterate our positive view on TC given its robust earnings growth outlook and we believe its business growth is mainly driven by domestic demand and is relatively immune to the impact of tariffs and geopolitical conflicts.</li><li>Our 25%/18% YoY growth forecast for core OTA OP/total non-GAAP NP in 2025E remains unchanged, and we see supporting factors coming from: 1) resilient travel demand for both domestic and outbound travel, and TC’s ability to achieve further operating efficiency improvement through refined marketing strategies and optimization in user subsidies provided; 2) international business turnaround from the loss-making stage and contribution of profits. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

For 1Q25E, we expect Tongcheng Travel (TC) would record revenue of RMB4.35bn, up 12% YoY, and ink non-GAAP net profit of RMB737mn, up 32% YoY, both inline with Bloomberg consensus.We reiterate our positive view on TC given its robust earnings growth outlook and we believe its business growth is mainly driven by domestic demand and is relatively immune to the impact of tariffs and geopolitical conflicts.Our 25%/18% YoY growth forecast for core OTA OP/total non-GAAP NP in 2025E remains unchanged, and we see supporting factors coming from: 1) resilient travel demand for both domestic and outbound travel, and TC’s ability to achieve further operating efficiency improvement through refined marketing strategies and optimization in user subsidies provided; 2) international business turnaround from the loss-making stage and contribution of profits. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) - Expecting Inline 1Q Results

<ul><li>Tongcheng Travel (TC) reported 4Q24 results: total revenue was RMB4.2bn, up 35% YoY (3Q24: 51% YoY), 5% better than Bloomberg consensus estimates, due to the beat in revenue of accommodation reservation and Tourism business; adjusted NP was RMB660mn, up 37% YoY, and was 7% better than consensus.</li><li>OPM of core OTA businesses improved to 28.4% in 4Q24 (4Q23: 23.6%), driven by optimization of marketing strategies.</li><li>For 2024, total revenue grew 46% YoY to RMB17.3bn, and non-GAAP net profit reached RMB2.8bn, up 27% YoY. Looking into 2025, although Tourism business likely faces some short-term headwinds, core OTA business could still deliver solid earnings growth, driven by: 1) resilient travel demand for both domestic and outbound travel, and TC’s ability to drive for further operating efficiency improvement through refined marketing strategies and optimization in user subsidy provided; 2) international business turnaround from loss-making stage and start to contribute profits. We are looking for 25%/18% YoY growth for core OTA OP/total non-GAAP NP. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tongcheng Travel (TC) reported 4Q24 results: total revenue was RMB4.2bn, up 35% YoY (3Q24: 51% YoY), 5% better than Bloomberg consensus estimates, due to the beat in revenue of accommodation reservation and Tourism business; adjusted NP was RMB660mn, up 37% YoY, and was 7% better than consensus.OPM of core OTA businesses improved to 28.4% in 4Q24 (4Q23: 23.6%), driven by optimization of marketing strategies.For 2024, total revenue grew 46% YoY to RMB17.3bn, and non-GAAP net profit reached RMB2.8bn, up 27% YoY. Looking into 2025, although Tourism business likely faces some short-term headwinds, core OTA business could still deliver solid earnings growth, driven by: 1) resilient travel demand for both domestic and outbound travel, and TC’s ability to drive for further operating efficiency improvement through refined marketing strategies and optimization in user subsidy provided; 2) international business turnaround from loss-making stage and start to contribute profits. We are looking for 25%/18% YoY growth for core OTA OP/total non-GAAP NP. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) - 4Q Earnings Beat

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Klook Technology Limited, travel and leisure booking platform company with leadership position in APAC intra-regional travel, aims to raise up to $500M in US IPO.</li>
<li>The company is expected to IPO in December. Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley are leading the offering and Klook will list its ADSs on the NYSE.</li>
<li>My IPO valuation analysis coalesces around initial valuation range between $2.5B and $3.5B for Klook Technology Limited upcoming offering.</li>
</ul>


Klook Technology Limited, travel and leisure booking platform company with leadership position in APAC intra-regional travel, aims to raise up to $500M in US IPO.
The company is expected to IPO in December. Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley are leading the offering and Klook will list its ADSs on the NYSE.
My IPO valuation analysis coalesces around initial valuation range between $2.5B and $3.5B for Klook Technology Limited upcoming offering.


Klook IPO (NYSE: KLK): Fair Valuation Would Be Significantly Above Last Reported Valuation

China

Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited operates as an online travel agency. The Company provides transportation ticketing, accommodation reservation, value added travel products sales, and other services. Tongcheng Travel Holdings provides its services throughout China.

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Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): We Are Back

CNY travel rush is expected to boost air passenger volume by 9.8% vs. 2019, benefiting Tongcheng. Its focus on lower-tier cities and strong EPS...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Best for Capturing Lower-Tier Cities' Growth

Positive business momentum in 1Q23 supports a sharp recovery in FY23. Huge exposure to lower-tier cities and increase in monetisation will support...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) - Expecting Inline 1Q Results

For 1Q25E, we expect Tongcheng Travel (TC) would record revenue of RMB4.35bn, up 12% YoY, and ink non-GAAP net profit of RMB737mn, up 32% YoY, both...

CMB International

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) - 4Q Earnings Beat

ongcheng Travel (TC) reported 4Q24 results: total revenue was RMB4.2bn, up 35% YoY (3Q24: 51% YoY), 5% better than Bloomberg consensus estimates

CMB International

Klook IPO (NYSE: KLK): Fair Valuation Would Be Significantly Above Last Reported Valuation

Travel booking platform Klook Technology Limited plans to raise up to $500M in upcoming US IPO. In my insight, I discuss IPO valuation scenarios,...

Andrei Zakharov

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Market Cap (USDm)

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Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): We Are Back

CNY travel rush is expected to boost air passenger volume by 9.8% vs. 2019, benefiting Tongcheng. Its focus on lower-tier cities and strong EPS...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Best for Capturing Lower-Tier Cities' Growth

Positive business momentum in 1Q23 supports a sharp recovery in FY23. Huge exposure to lower-tier cities and increase in monetisation will support...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) - Expecting Inline 1Q Results

For 1Q25E, we expect Tongcheng Travel (TC) would record revenue of RMB4.35bn, up 12% YoY, and ink non-GAAP net profit of RMB737mn, up 32% YoY, both...

CMB International

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) - 4Q Earnings Beat

ongcheng Travel (TC) reported 4Q24 results: total revenue was RMB4.2bn, up 35% YoY (3Q24: 51% YoY), 5% better than Bloomberg consensus estimates

CMB International

Klook IPO (NYSE: KLK): Fair Valuation Would Be Significantly Above Last Reported Valuation

​Travel booking platform Klook Technology Limited plans to raise up to $500M in upcoming US IPO. In my insight, I discuss IPO valuation scenarios,...

Andrei Zakharov

Travel booking platform Klook Technology Limited plans to raise up to $500M in upcoming US IPO. In my insight, I discuss IPO valuation scenarios,...