Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>China's outbound tourism recovery started much later than others in the region</li>
<li>In particular, Taiwan &amp; Korea began ramping outbound travel earlier (in Q222)</li>
<li>As destinations, Thailand &amp; Vietnam recovered early, but now lag HK's growth</li>
</ul>


China's outbound tourism recovery started much later than others in the region
In particular, Taiwan &amp; Korea began ramping outbound travel earlier (in Q222)
As destinations, Thailand &amp; Vietnam recovered early, but now lag HK's growth


China's Tourism Recovery Versus Other Major Tourist Sources in Asia: Delayed, Not Slower

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Of the seven US metrics we track, six showed a weaker pace of Y/Y change vs July data</li>
<li>Five of the seven border crossing metrics showed Y/Y declines in August (vs only two in July)</li>
<li>As a proxy for US leisure and travel activity, the August numbers paint a bleak picture</li>
</ul>


Of the seven US metrics we track, six showed a weaker pace of Y/Y change vs July data
Five of the seven border crossing metrics showed Y/Y declines in August (vs only two in July)
As a proxy for US leisure and travel activity, the August numbers paint a bleak picture


August US Customs & Border Protection Data Confirm Softening Travel Trend in Most Segments, Regions

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Tongcheng Travel (TC) reported (24 Mar) its 4Q25 results: total revenue was RMB4.8bn, up 14.2% YoY, and 2%/1% above our forecast and Bloomberg consensus estimates, respectively.</li><li>Adjusted net profit was RMB780mn, up 18% YoY, and 4% ahead of both our forecast and consensus.</li><li>Both revenue and OPM of the core OTA business (28.4%, flat YoY) came in line with our estimates. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tongcheng Travel (TC) reported (24 Mar) its 4Q25 results: total revenue was RMB4.8bn, up 14.2% YoY, and 2%/1% above our forecast and Bloomberg consensus estimates, respectively.Adjusted net profit was RMB780mn, up 18% YoY, and 4% ahead of both our forecast and consensus.Both revenue and OPM of the core OTA business (28.4%, flat YoY) came in line with our estimates. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) - Expecting Resilient Core Business Earnings Growth in 2026

<ul><li>Tongcheng Travel (TC) reported (25 Nov) 3Q25 results: total revenue was RMB5.5bn, up 10.4% YoY, and was 1% better than both our forecast and Bloomberg consensus estimates; adjusted NP was RMB1.06bn, up 16.5% YoY, and was 4/2% better than our forecast/consensus, driven by better-thanexpected operating leverage of core OTA business.</li><li>OPM of the core OTA business expanded to 31.2% in 3Q25 (3Q24: 31.1%), 0.1ppts ahead of our forecast.</li><li>We have lifted 2025E-2027E revenue forecast by 1-3% to factor in incremental revenue contribution from the consolidation of Wanda Hotel Management (WHM) since Oct 2025, and adjusted down non-GAAP NP by 1- 2% to factor in TC’s incremental marketing investment on user acquisition. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tongcheng Travel (TC) reported (25 Nov) 3Q25 results: total revenue was RMB5.5bn, up 10.4% YoY, and was 1% better than both our forecast and Bloomberg consensus estimates; adjusted NP was RMB1.06bn, up 16.5% YoY, and was 4/2% better than our forecast/consensus, driven by better-thanexpected operating leverage of core OTA business.OPM of the core OTA business expanded to 31.2% in 3Q25 (3Q24: 31.1%), 0.1ppts ahead of our forecast.We have lifted 2025E-2027E revenue forecast by 1-3% to factor in incremental revenue contribution from the consolidation of Wanda Hotel Management (WHM) since Oct 2025, and adjusted down non-GAAP NP by 1- 2% to factor in TC’s incremental marketing investment on user acquisition. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) - Solid 3Q25 Results with Healthy Earnings Growth

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.</li>
<li>The market consultation results have been announced. All proposed changes will be adopted in full with two additional requirements to avoid low-liquidity and low-revenue names.</li>
<li>We expect 20 ADDs and no DELs in December 2026. We estimate one-way flow of around US$4bn with 11 expected ADDs having more than 3x ADV to buy.</li>
</ul>


The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
The market consultation results have been announced. All proposed changes will be adopted in full with two additional requirements to avoid low-liquidity and low-revenue names.
We expect 20 ADDs and no DELs in December 2026. We estimate one-way flow of around US$4bn with 11 expected ADDs having more than 3x ADV to buy.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Dec26: New Rules Confirmed with Some Modifications; Latest Expectations

Hong Kong

Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited is an investment holding company providing travel-related services in the People's Republic of China. It offers accommodation reservation, transportation ticketing, online advertising, hotel management, tourist attraction tickets, and packaged tours through its online platforms, mobile apps, and websites. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Suzhou, the People's Republic of China.

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Tongcheng Travel (780 HK)

China's Tourism Recovery Versus Other Major Tourist Sources in Asia: Delayed, Not Slower

In this insight we compare China's progress toward restoring outbound tourism activity to the progress shown by other major tourist sources in the...

Tracking Traffic

August US Customs & Border Protection Data Confirm Softening Travel Trend in Most Segments, Regions

By almost every measure, August's US border crossing data look even weaker than the mediocre numbers from July. Clearly, US travel and leisure...

Tracking Traffic