Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 4 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50 Index (SSE50 INDEX)</a> and 18 changes for the SSE180 Index that will be implemented at the close on 13 June.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50 Index (SSE50 INDEX)</a> deletes were in line with forecasts, and the index committee has used some discretion while picking the index inclusions.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50 Index</a> adds have outperformed the deletes over the last few months and there could be a further move higher in the 'surprise' adds to the index.</li>
</ul>


There are 4 changes for the SSE50 Index (SSE50 INDEX) and 18 changes for the SSE180 Index that will be implemented at the close on 13 June.
The SSE50 Index (SSE50 INDEX) deletes were in line with forecasts, and the index committee has used some discretion while picking the index inclusions.
The SSE50 Index adds have outperformed the deletes over the last few months and there could be a further move higher in the 'surprise' adds to the index.


SSE50/SSE180 Index Rebalance: Some Surprises Among the Adds; Deletes as Expected

Dawning Information Industry C / Index Rebalance

Dawning Information Industry C (603019 CH)

<ul>
<li>With the review period complete, there are 2 non-constituents in direct inclusion zone and 4 current constituents in direct deletion zone.</li>
<li>4 changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.7%, leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 21.8bn (US$3bn). Index arb balances will increase the impact on the stocks.</li>
<li>After drifting in a range, the forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last month. There could be further outperformance as we near the announcement date.</li>
</ul>


With the review period complete, there are 2 non-constituents in direct inclusion zone and 4 current constituents in direct deletion zone.
4 changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.7%, leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 21.8bn (US$3bn). Index arb balances will increase the impact on the stocks.
After drifting in a range, the forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last month. There could be further outperformance as we near the announcement date.


SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: 4 Potential Changes in June

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 19th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$2,388.5 million, led by consumer discretionary, industrials, financials.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Midea (000333 CH), Zhongji Innolight (300308 CH), Mindray (300760 CH).</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 19th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$2,388.5 million, led by consumer discretionary, industrials, financials.
We highlight flows for Midea (000333 CH), Zhongji Innolight (300308 CH), Mindray (300760 CH).


Northbound Flows (Jul 19th): Midea, Zhongji Innolight, Mindray

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 3rd.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$448.8 million, led by consumer discretionary, information technology, consumer staples, and offset by industrials, utilities, communication services.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for CATL, Moutai. Note that the connect was closed for three days last week due to exchange holidays.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 3rd.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$448.8 million, led by consumer discretionary, information technology, consumer staples, and offset by industrials, utilities, communication services.
We highlight flows for CATL, Moutai. Note that the connect was closed for three days last week due to exchange holidays.


<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 8th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$376.5 million, led by information technology, consumer discretionary, and offset by industrials, utilities, financials.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for China Yangtze Power, CATL, Tongwei, Foxconn Industrial Internet.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of March 8th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$376.5 million, led by information technology, consumer discretionary, and offset by industrials, utilities, financials.
We highlight flows for China Yangtze Power, CATL, Tongwei, Foxconn Industrial Internet.


Northbound Flows (Mar 8th): China Yangtze Power, CATL, Tongwei, Foxconn Industrial Internet

China

Tongwei Co., Ltd. produces and markets aquatic and animal feeds. The Company also sells animal medicines.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Tongwei Co Ltd A (600438 CH)

SSE50/SSE180 Index Rebalance: Some Surprises Among the Adds; Deletes as Expected

There are 4 changes for the SSE50 and 18 for the SSE180. There are a couple of surprise adds for the SSE50. Basket performance has been consistent...

Brian Freitas

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: 4 Potential Changes in June

There could be up to 4 changes for the SSE50 in June. Estimated 1-way turnover is 5.7% leading to a round-trip trade of US$3bn. The forecast adds...

Brian Freitas

Northbound Flows (Jul 19th): Midea, Zhongji Innolight, Mindray

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Midea, Zhongji Innolight, Mindray.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows (Apr 3rd): CATL, Moutai

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for CATL, Moutai. Not e that connect scheme was closed...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows (Mar 8th): China Yangtze Power, CATL, Tongwei, Foxconn Industrial Internet

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for China Yangtze Power, CATL, Tongwei, Foxconn...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)