Deputy Chief Economist

Sharmila Whelan

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

We are overweight Japanese equities. It is one of our high conviction calls for 2018.Growth faltered in the first quarter, but that was an aberration or at worst a blip. The Japanese business cycle is firmly in the upswing phase. Corporate profits are rising strongly and on the back of it investment spending. As for exports - Japan like the EU is finding out that the US under Mr Trump’s leadership, is neither the loyal friend nor the reliable trading partner it was. Japan has been permanently…

We are overweight Japanese equities. It is one of our high conviction calls for 2018.Growth faltered in the first quarter, but that was an aberration or at worst a blip. The Japanese business cycle is firmly in the upswing phase. Corporate profits are rising strongly and on the back of it investment spending. As for exports - Japan like the EU is finding out that the US under Mr Trump’s leadership, is neither the loyal friend nor the reliable trading partner it was. Japan has been permanently…

Japan Wages & Consumption - Catching up Finally!

‘Modesty is a virtue’ is a value clearly Japanese companies believe in and one that my mother tried hard to inculcate in me albeit a slightly different version which went along the lines of ‘An Indian woman must always be modest’.  So it would appear Japanese companies and Indian mothers have much in common. In Japan’s case though its companies are being unduly modest. Things are good and getting better.The latest March 2018 Tankan Survey report sits at odds with the reality on the ground as…

‘Modesty is a virtue’ is a value clearly Japanese companies believe in and one that my mother tried hard to inculcate in me albeit a slightly different version which went along the lines of ‘An Indian woman must always be modest’.  So it would appear Japanese companies and Indian mothers have much in common. In Japan’s case though its companies are being unduly modest. Things are good and getting better.The latest March 2018 Tankan Survey report sits at odds with the reality on the ground as…

Japanese Capex - Of Japanese Firms and Indian Mothers

Japan Economist, Japan Macro Advisors

Takuji Okubo

Japan Economist

Concise and Insightful Analysis on Japan Economy

Japan Macro Advisors

Our mission is to provide a concise and timely analysis on the Japanese economy for the benefit of global audiences. Communication, especially in foreign languages, has always been a weakness for the Japanese, which was fine when Japan's economic might attracted foreign media and various other institutions to study and report on Japan - such days are long gone. In the last two decades, we saw foreign institutions reallocating their resources from Japan to other more exciting parts of the world. As a result, when we read reporting on Japan in foreign media, we sense a subtle but noticeable decline in the depth of understanding what is actually happening in Japan.

After 2 years of consistent growth, the Japanese economy contracted in the 2018 January-March quarter. While it is a disappointing result, we think it was a temporary dip and the growth is likely to return in the following quarters. The news should be a wake-up call for Japanese policymakers. Japan has made a progress in reflating the economy, but they should not take continued growth for granted. The BoJ needs to maintain, or better, strengthen its stimulus and clearly communicate its intention…

After 2 years of consistent growth, the Japanese economy contracted in the 2018 January-March quarter. While it is a disappointing result, we think it was a temporary dip and the growth is likely to return in the following quarters. The news should be a wake-up call for Japanese policymakers. Japan has made a progress in reflating the economy, but they should not take continued growth for granted. The BoJ needs to maintain, or better, strengthen its stimulus and clearly communicate its intention…

A Wake-Up Call for Japanese Policymakers.

China, Korea and Japan, met in Tokyo this week for a trilateral business summit, the first since 2015, to discuss regional trade and North Korea. Following the summit, China the new champion of global free trade, urged Japan and Korea to stand firmly together with it in resisting the rising wave of protectionism while deepening intra-regional trade by accelerating talks on a China-Japan-Korea free trade area and the completion of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Mr Trump…

China, Korea and Japan, met in Tokyo this week for a trilateral business summit, the first since 2015, to discuss regional trade and North Korea. Following the summit, China the new champion of global free trade, urged Japan and Korea to stand firmly together with it in resisting the rising wave of protectionism while deepening intra-regional trade by accelerating talks on a China-Japan-Korea free trade area and the completion of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Mr Trump…

China-Korea-Japan Trade: Thank You Mr Trump!

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nh-foods-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12235:1" rel="noopener">NH Foods (2282 JP)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-tobacco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13498:1" rel="noopener">Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)</a> price ratio has deviated more than four standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Going long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nh-foods-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12235:1" rel="noopener">NH Foods (2282 JP)</a> and short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-tobacco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13498:1" rel="noopener">Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)</a>  targets a 11% return.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The NH Foods (2282 JP) vs. Japan Tobacco (2914 JP) price ratio has deviated more than four standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

Highlight: Going long NH Foods (2282 JP) and short Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)  targets a 11% return.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


NH Foods (2282 JP) Vs. Japan Tobacco (2914 JP): Four-Sigma Tail Event Signals Pair Trade

Japan

TOPIX ETF is an Exchange-traded fund which holds a portfolio representing all stocks in the Tokyo Price Index (TOPIX).  The objective of the trust is to provide investment results that corresponds to the price and yield performance of the component securities of the Tokyo Price Index.

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Nomura ETF Topix (1306 JP)

Japan Wages & Consumption - Catching up Finally!

We are overweight Japanese equities. It is one of our high conviction calls for 2018.Growth faltered in the first quarter, but that was an...

Sharmila Whelan

Japanese Capex - Of Japanese Firms and Indian Mothers

‘Modesty is a virtue’ is a value clearly Japanese companies believe in and one that my mother tried hard to inculcate in me albeit a slightly...

Sharmila Whelan

A Wake-Up Call for Japanese Policymakers.

After 2 years of consistent growth, the Japanese economy contracted in the 2018 January-March quarter. While it is a disappointing result, we think...

Takuji Okubo

China-Korea-Japan Trade: Thank You Mr Trump!

China, Korea and Japan, met in Tokyo this week for a trilateral business summit, the first since 2015, to discuss regional trade and North Korea....

Sharmila Whelan

NH Foods (2282 JP) Vs. Japan Tobacco (2914 JP): Four-Sigma Tail Event Signals Pair Trade

11% target return in a potential pair trade as the price ratio reaches a rare four-sigma extreme, creating a statistical mean-reversion opportunity...

Gaudenz Schneider

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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