Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Currently 19 pair trade opportunities persist across four markets and eight sectors.
</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlights: Currently 19 pair trade opportunities persist across four markets and eight sectors.


Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (1 June 2026)

Deputy Chief Economist

Sharmila Whelan

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

Japan’s policymakers continue to fret about the lack of inflation but it is worth remembering the norm globally and historically is for the price of manufactured goods to decline over time. As companies grow, specialise and scale up the cost of production falls and with it final consumer goods prices. Falling retail prices which increase consumer real purchasing power is good news for Japanese households and for discretionary spending. Moreover with labour productivity growth outpacing wages costs by a wide margin, companies can absorb lower prices without sacrificing profitability. Stay overweight Japanese equities.

Japan’s policymakers continue to fret about the lack of inflation but it is worth remembering the norm globally and historically is for the price of manufactured goods to decline over time. As companies grow, specialise and scale up the cost of production falls and with it final consumer goods prices. Falling retail prices which increase consumer real purchasing power is good news for Japanese households and for discretionary spending. Moreover with labour productivity growth outpacing wages costs by a wide margin, companies can absorb lower prices without sacrificing profitability. Stay overweight Japanese equities.

Japanese Inflation - Much Ado About Nothing

Following 3Q’s contraction, economic activity rebounded in the final quarter of 2018 led  by investment spending. Global trade tensions and the planned increase in the consumption tax in 2019 are headwinds but we expect the Japanese economy to sail through. The investment upcycle remains intact underpinned by rising profits and consumption spending well supported by easy monetary and fiscal policy. We reiterate our overweight call on Japanese equities.

Following 3Q’s contraction, economic activity rebounded in the final quarter of 2018 led  by investment spending. Global trade tensions and the planned increase in the consumption tax in 2019 are headwinds but we expect the Japanese economy to sail through. The investment upcycle remains intact underpinned by rising profits and consumption spending well supported by easy monetary and fiscal policy. We reiterate our overweight call on Japanese equities. 

For now Asian export upcycle continues, underpinned by buoyant global demand. We suspect though the best maybe behind and that Asian overseas shipments are set to moderate. We would hasten to add we are not expect the export upcycle to go into reverse. Intra-regional trade remains strong. We also expect China to ease monetary and fiscal policy substantially in 2019 to stimulate domestic demand and ward off the negative effects of the US-China trade war. This will help buffer regional exporters

For now Asian export upcycle continues, underpinned by buoyant global demand. We suspect though the best maybe behind and that Asian overseas shipments are set to moderate. We would hasten to add we are not expect the export upcycle to go into reverse. Intra-regional trade remains strong. We also expect China to ease monetary and fiscal policy substantially in 2019 to stimulate domestic demand and ward off the negative effects of the US-China trade war. This will help buffer regional exporters

Asian Exports - Rising But Set To Moderate

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nisshin-seifun-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:640:1" rel="noopener">Nisshin Seifun Group (2002 JP)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a> price ratio has deviated more than three standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
 Highlight: Going long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nisshin-seifun-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:640:1" rel="noopener">Nisshin Seifun Group (2002 JP)</a> and short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a>  targets a 7% return.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The Nisshin Seifun Group (2002 JP) vs. Kirin Holdings (2503 JP) price ratio has deviated more than three standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

 Highlight: Going long Nisshin Seifun Group (2002 JP) and short Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)  targets a 7% return.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Nisshin Seifun (2002 JP) Vs Kirin (2503 JP): Flour Power in a Mean-Reversion Trade Targeting 7%

Japan

TOPIX ETF is an Exchange-traded fund which holds a portfolio representing all stocks in the Tokyo Price Index (TOPIX).  The objective of the trust is to provide investment results that corresponds to the price and yield performance of the component securities of the Tokyo Price Index.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Nomura ETF Topix (1306 JP)

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (1 June 2026)

Discover 19 pair trade opportunities across four markets and eight sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Japanese Inflation - Much Ado About Nothing

Japan’s policymakers continue to fret about the lack of inflation but it is worth remembering the norm globally and historically is for the price...

Sharmila Whelan

Japan: Upcycle Intact

Following 3Q’s contraction, economic activity rebounded in the final quarter of 2018 led by investment spending. Global trade tensions and the...

Sharmila Whelan

Asian Exports - Rising But Set To Moderate

For now Asian export upcycle continues, underpinned by buoyant global demand. We suspect though the best maybe behind and that Asian overseas...

Sharmila Whelan

Nisshin Seifun (2002 JP) Vs Kirin (2503 JP): Flour Power in a Mean-Reversion Trade Targeting 7%

7% target return as the consumer staples spread reaches a three-sigma extreme, creating a potential mean-reversion pair trade opportunity between...

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (1 June 2026)

​Discover 19 pair trade opportunities across four markets and eight sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.

Gaudenz Schneider

Japanese Inflation - Much Ado About Nothing

Japan’s policymakers continue to fret about the lack of inflation but it is worth remembering the norm globally and historically is for the price...

Sharmila Whelan

Japan: Upcycle Intact

Following 3Q’s contraction, economic activity rebounded in the final quarter of 2018 led by investment spending. Global trade tensions and the...

Sharmila Whelan

Asian Exports - Rising But Set To Moderate

For now Asian export upcycle continues, underpinned by buoyant global demand. We suspect though the best maybe behind and that Asian overseas...

Sharmila Whelan

Nisshin Seifun (2002 JP) Vs Kirin (2503 JP): Flour Power in a Mean-Reversion Trade Targeting 7%

7% target return as the consumer staples spread reaches a three-sigma extreme, creating a potential mean-reversion pair trade opportunity between...

Gaudenz Schneider

Discover 19 pair trade opportunities across four markets and eight sectors using statistical mean-reversion methodology for actionable insights.