Japan Economist, Japan Macro Advisors

Takuji Okubo

Japan Economist

Concise and Insightful Analysis on Japan Economy

Japan Macro Advisors

Our mission is to provide a concise and timely analysis on the Japanese economy for the benefit of global audiences. Communication, especially in foreign languages, has always been a weakness for the Japanese, which was fine when Japan's economic might attracted foreign media and various other institutions to study and report on Japan - such days are long gone. In the last two decades, we saw foreign institutions reallocating their resources from Japan to other more exciting parts of the world. As a result, when we read reporting on Japan in foreign media, we sense a subtle but noticeable decline in the depth of understanding what is actually happening in Japan.

Macroeconomics

Until recently, foreign workers were not of macroeconomic concern as the number was too small. As foreign workers now account for 2% of the total workforce and the number is growing nearly 20% per year, it could soon start to have a meaningful economic impact on Japan's labor market, consumption and most importantly, on the longer-term growth outlook for Japan.  The official stance of the Japanese government, especially that of the current Prime Minister Abe, is that Japan is not open to…

Until recently, foreign workers were not of macroeconomic concern as the number was too small. As foreign workers now account for 2% of the total workforce and the number is growing nearly 20% per year, it could soon start to have a meaningful economic impact on Japan's labor market, consumption and most importantly, on the longer-term growth outlook for Japan.   The official stance of the Japanese government, especially that of the current Prime Minister Abe, is that Japan is not open to…

What could the Bank of Japan do if it is to face a recession? This question is the foremost critical challenge for Mr. Kuroda in the next five years. It has already been ten years since the last global recession, and we should not be surprised to see another one around the corner. The BoJ may be able to start an exit process in a year or two, but if a recession is to happen within the next few years, we expect most of the current easing policies, such as the -0.1% short-term policy rate, to be…

What could the Bank of Japan do if it is to face a recession? This question is the foremost critical challenge for Mr. Kuroda in the next five years. It has already been ten years since the last global recession, and we should not be surprised to see another one around the corner. The BoJ may be able to start an exit process in a year or two, but if a recession is to happen within the next few years, we expect most of the current easing policies, such as the -0.1% short-term policy rate, to be…

Kuroda's Next 5 Years (Part 2): Prepare to Ease Again

On February 9, the Japanese government leaked their intention to reappoint the BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda when his current term expires on April 8. What are the key challenges for Mr. Kuroda in the next 5 years? On the upside, Mr. Kuroda may need to engineer an exit from the current stimulative monetary policy. On the downside, there is the seemingly impossible task of how to devise additional stimulus if the Japanese economy faces a downturn under his watch.  An exit from the current…

On February 9, the Japanese government leaked their intention to reappoint the BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda when his current term expires on April 8. What are the key challenges for Mr. Kuroda in the next 5 years? On the upside, Mr. Kuroda may need to engineer an exit from the current stimulative monetary policy. On the downside, there is the seemingly impossible task of how to devise additional stimulus if the Japanese economy faces a downturn under his watch.   An exit from the current…

Amareos

Ryan Shea

<h2>Summary</h2>Last September the BoJ announced a major change to its monetary policy operations. It introduced an explicit target for long-term Japanese government bond yields as a complement to its short-term interest rate target, a policy tool investors have become very familiar with given its widespread adoption over the past 30 or so years. As we argued at the time (see forked Insight), the significance of this policy change was lost on many investors. Incredibly, this remains so.  Many…

SummaryLast September the BoJ announced a major change to its monetary policy operations. It introduced an explicit target for long-term Japanese government bond yields as a complement to its short-term interest rate target, a policy tool investors have become very familiar with given its widespread adoption over the past 30 or so years. As we argued at the time (see forked Insight), the significance of this policy change was lost on many investors. Incredibly, this remains so.  Many…

The Market Sentimentalist - Monetary Delusions

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Summary</h2>Back in December we argued that the outlook for South Korea equities was constructive, even allowing for the increased risk of a flare-up in tensions over North Korea. With Kim Jong-un’s regime having just successfully launched its first intercontinental ballistic missile does this relatively sanguine assessment still hold? Global financial markets barely registering a ripple to the news, and even those in close proximity who stand to be most negatively impacted by increased geopolitical…

SummaryBack in December we argued that the outlook for South Korea equities was constructive, even allowing for the increased risk of a flare-up in tensions over North Korea. With Kim Jong-un’s regime having just successfully launched its first intercontinental ballistic missile does this relatively sanguine assessment still hold? Global financial markets barely registering a ripple to the news, and even those in close proximity who stand to be most negatively impacted by increased geopolitical…

The Market Sentimentalist - Strategic Impatience

Japan

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The Rise of Foreign Workers in Japan

Until recently, foreign workers were not of macroeconomic concern as the number was too small. As foreign workers now account for 2% of the total...

Takuji Okubo

Kuroda's Next 5 Years (Part 2): Prepare to Ease Again

What could the Bank of Japan do if it is to face a recession? This question is the foremost critical challenge for Mr. Kuroda in the next five...

Takuji Okubo

Kuroda's Next 5 Years

On February 9, the Japanese government leaked their intention to reappoint the BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda when his current term expires on April...

Takuji Okubo

The Market Sentimentalist - Monetary Delusions

SummaryLast September the BoJ announced a major change to its monetary policy operations. It introduced an explicit target for long-term Japanese...

Amareos

The Market Sentimentalist - Strategic Impatience

SummaryBack in December we argued that the outlook for South Korea equities was constructive, even allowing for the increased risk of a flare-up in...

Amareos

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