Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The completion of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a> - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> merger could cause an intra-review change next week.</li>
<li>There could be two more index changes in the regular review in June 2023.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the current rankings of potential ADDs and potential DELs and their recent price and volume performance. </li>
</ul>


The completion of the Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) - True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) merger could cause an intra-review change next week.
There could be two more index changes in the regular review in June 2023.
In this insight, we take a look at the current rankings of potential ADDs and potential DELs and their recent price and volume performance. 


Quiddity Leaderboard for SET Jun 23: DTAC-TRUE Intra-Review Changes

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srisawad-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9480:1" rel="noopener">Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB)</a> is likely to join the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> in early March following the DTAC/TRUE merger.</li>
<li>Then there should be one change in June with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34915:1" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jaymart-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12053:1" rel="noopener">Jaymart PCL (JMART TB)</a> in the index.</li>
<li>There is one stock close to failing the liquidity test and that could lead to another change with a few stocks vying for index inclusion.</li>
</ul>



Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB) is likely to join the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) in early March following the DTAC/TRUE merger.
Then there should be one change in June with Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) replacing Jaymart PCL (JMART TB) in the index.
There is one stock close to failing the liquidity test and that could lead to another change with a few stocks vying for index inclusion.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>ADVANC targets core service revenue growth at 3-5% YoY (+1.6% YoY in 2022) and mid-single-digit EBITDA growth (-1.8% YoY in 2022), driven by the economic recovery and its strategy to focus on profitable market share through quality and differentiated services, as well as the adoption of technology to optimize the cost of services.</li><li>The acquisition of TTTBB and JASIF will be completed in 2Q23E, i.e., delayed a quarter from the previous schedule.</li><li>The 4Q22 core profit missed the market consensus by 4%, falling 3% YoY to Bt6.7bn (Bt2.26/share) on higher tax expenses after the expiry of the tax benefit.</li></ul>

ADVANC targets core service revenue growth at 3-5% YoY (+1.6% YoY in 2022) and mid-single-digit EBITDA growth (-1.8% YoY in 2022), driven by the economic recovery and its strategy to focus on profitable market share through quality and differentiated services, as well as the adoption of technology to optimize the cost of services.The acquisition of TTTBB and JASIF will be completed in 2Q23E, i.e., delayed a quarter from the previous schedule.The 4Q22 core profit missed the market consensus by 4%, falling 3% YoY to Bt6.7bn (Bt2.26/share) on higher tax expenses after the expiry of the tax benefit.

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support at 1,670/1,665 points and the resistance at 1,690/1,700 points.</li><li>Tactically, investors may continue to speculate on earnings results, focusing on certain stocks with good 4Q22E earnings outlooks as well as those with specific catalysts, such as stocks in the construction services sector whose share prices have outperformed due to the progress on the new general election.</li><li>Our recommended stocks are VGI, STEC, and BA.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support at 1,670/1,665 points and the resistance at 1,690/1,700 points.Tactically, investors may continue to speculate on earnings results, focusing on certain stocks with good 4Q22E earnings outlooks as well as those with specific catalysts, such as stocks in the construction services sector whose share prices have outperformed due to the progress on the new general election.Our recommended stocks are VGI, STEC, and BA.

Recommendation: Buy on Weakness, Sell on Strength

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the SET50 index rebalance in June 2023.</li>
<li>Based on the latest available data, I expect 3 ADDs/DELs but there are multiple names lurking close to the border.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srisawad-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9480:1" rel="noopener">Srisawad (SAWAD TB)</a>  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sansiri-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12201:1" rel="noopener">Sansiri Public (SIRI TB)</a> are leading the SET50 and SET100 Reserve Lists respectively and could become intra-review ADDs if the DTAC-TRUE merger closes in 1H 2023.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the SET50 index rebalance in June 2023.
Based on the latest available data, I expect 3 ADDs/DELs but there are multiple names lurking close to the border.

Srisawad (SAWAD TB)  and Sansiri Public (SIRI TB) are leading the SET50 and SET100 Reserve Lists respectively and could become intra-review ADDs if the DTAC-TRUE merger closes in 1H 2023.


Quiddity Leaderboard for Thailand SET50 Jun 23:Ramkhamhaeng Hospital Is an Interesting Case

Thailand

Total Access Communication Public Company Limited, commonly known as DTAC, is a leading mobile telecommunications operator in Thailand. It provides a range of services including 5G, 4G, 3G, and 2G mobile phone services, mobile internet, voice, SMS/MMS, and other connectivity services, along with selling mobile handsets and starter kits. The company is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was founded on August 31, 1989.

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Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)

Quiddity Leaderboard for SET Jun 23: DTAC-TRUE Intra-Review Changes

There could be 8.2mn shares to buy in Srisawad which translates to an estimated impact of 0.8 days of volume and a flow size of US$13mn.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June

SAWAD could be added to the index in March. Then TLI should replace JMART in June. INTUCH is a close delete on liquidity and there are multiple...

Brian Freitas

ADVANCED INFO SERVICES (ADVANC)

ADVANC targets core service revenue growth at 3-5% YoY (+1.6% YoY in 2022) and mid-single-digit EBITDA growth (-1.8% YoY in 2022), driven by the...

Krungthai XSpring

Recommendation: Buy on Weakness, Sell on Strength

The SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support at 1,670/1,665 points and the resistance at 1,690/1,700 points. Tactically, investors...

Krungthai XSpring

Quiddity Leaderboard for Thailand SET50 Jun 23:Ramkhamhaeng Hospital Is an Interesting Case

There could be 15 days of volume to buy in Ramkhamhaeng Hospital (RAM TB) if the name achieves a 15% relative gain vs other names and becomes a...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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