Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the SET50 index rebalance in June 2023.</li>
<li>Based on the latest available data, I expect 2 ADDs/DELs but there are couple of names close to the border and final rankings could change with changes in share prices.</li>
<li>The three-month reference period used for the June 2023 rebalance will end on 31st May 2022.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the SET50 index rebalance in June 2023.
Based on the latest available data, I expect 2 ADDs/DELs but there are couple of names close to the border and final rankings could change with changes in share prices.
The three-month reference period used for the June 2023 rebalance will end on 31st May 2022.


Quiddity Leaderboard for SET50 Jun 23 Review: TLI ADD & JMART DEL Likely; BJC Is a Question Mark

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

PTT Exploration & Production / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support at 1,607/1,600 points and the resistance at 1,620/1,630 points.</li><li>Thai exports in March 2023 fell by 4.5% YoY, marking a bigger contraction than the expectation of -1.8% YoY but improving compared to December 2022 (-14.6% YoY).</li><li>Although we believe the fall provides an opportunity to accumulate shares, with the weak buying volume and no positive signals to boost the index, we recommend holding cash until there is a reversal signal.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support at 1,607/1,600 points and the resistance at 1,620/1,630 points.Thai exports in March 2023 fell by 4.5% YoY, marking a bigger contraction than the expectation of -1.8% YoY but improving compared to December 2022 (-14.6% YoY).Although we believe the fall provides an opportunity to accumulate shares, with the weak buying volume and no positive signals to boost the index, we recommend holding cash until there is a reversal signal.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srisawad-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9480:1" rel="noopener">Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB)</a> has been added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET50 INDEX</a> following the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB)</a> merger.</li>
<li>Passive <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET50 INDEX</a> trackers will need to buy 9.7m shares (THB 534m; 1x ADV) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srisawad-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9480:1" rel="noopener">Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB)</a> at the close of trading today.</li>
<li>There could be two more changes in June with relatively new listings, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34915:1" rel="noopener">Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/betagro-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36222:1" rel="noopener">Betagro (BTG TB)</a>, being added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET50 INDEX</a>.</li>
</ul>



Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB) has been added to the SET50 INDEX following the Total Access Communication (DTAC TB) / True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) merger.
Passive SET50 INDEX trackers will need to buy 9.7m shares (THB 534m; 1x ADV) of Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB) at the close of trading today.
There could be two more changes in June with relatively new listings, Thai Life Insurance (TLI TB) and Betagro (BTG TB), being added to the SET50 INDEX.


SET50 Index Rebalance: SAWAD Added; Buying at the Close Today

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There is no good reason to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a>'s dip until the offering. It's unlikely to earn the ROE to deserve the PBR it has versus peers.</li>
<li>Brookfield and EIG/MidOcean's revised NBIO will garner <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a> board support; however, the terms are weird and unfair to investors holding fewer than 100k shares. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sats-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19962:1" rel="noopener">SATS (SATS SP)</a> rights offer is not actually a surprise. Not at all. Passive funds will exercise. </li>
</ul>


There is no good reason to buy Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)'s dip until the offering. It's unlikely to earn the ROE to deserve the PBR it has versus peers.
Brookfield and EIG/MidOcean's revised NBIO will garner Origin Energy (ORG AU) board support; however, the terms are weird and unfair to investors holding fewer than 100k shares. 

SATS (SATS SP) rights offer is not actually a surprise. Not at all. Passive funds will exercise. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Origin Energy, SATS, China Renaissance, Sembcorp Marine

<ul>
<li>There are 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Three new deals was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-century-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16474:1" rel="noopener">New Century Resources (NCZ AU)</a>off-market Offer;<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aag-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:501:1" rel="noopener">AAG Energy Holdings' (2686 HK)</a> 's Scheme; and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangnan-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9828:1" rel="noopener">Jiangnan (1366 HK)</a>'s MBO.</li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nitro-software-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30943:1" rel="noopener">Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pushpay-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13737:1" rel="noopener">Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/boustead-projects-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26785:1" rel="noopener">Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Three new deals was discussed on Smartkarma this past week: New Century Resources (NCZ AU)off-market Offer;AAG Energy Holdings' (2686 HK) 's Scheme; and Jiangnan (1366 HK)'s MBO.
Key updates took place for: Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU), Origin Energy (ORG AU), Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ), Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP), and Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: New Century Resource; AAG Energy; Jiangnan, Nitro, Pushpay

Thailand

Total Access Communication Public Company Limited, commonly known as DTAC, is a leading mobile telecommunications operator in Thailand. It provides a range of services including 5G, 4G, 3G, and 2G mobile phone services, mobile internet, voice, SMS/MMS, and other connectivity services, along with selling mobile handsets and starter kits. The company is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand, and was founded on August 31, 1989.

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Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)

Quiddity Leaderboard for SET50 Jun 23 Review: TLI ADD & JMART DEL Likely; BJC Is a Question Mark

Currently, Thai Life Insurance and Berli Jucker are ADDs and Jaymart PCL and Ngern Tid Lor are DELs in June 2023. Potential ADD WHA Corp and...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Today's Dominant Ideas

The SET Index is expected to move sideways, with the support at 1,607/1,600 points and the resistance at 1,620/1,630 points. Thai exports in March...

Krungthai XSpring

SET50 Index Rebalance: SAWAD Added; Buying at the Close Today

SAWAD will be added to the SET50 index at the close today following the DTAC/TRUE merger. TLI and BTG could then replace JMART and TIDLOR in June,...

Brian Freitas

Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Origin Energy, SATS, China Renaissance, Sembcorp Marine

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: New Century Resource; AAG Energy; Jiangnan, Nitro, Pushpay

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

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