New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Tourism Holdings (THL) is negatively impacted by the Trump-led trade war, particularly affecting consumer confidence in North America.</li><li>THL is trading at a ~20% discount to net tangible assets and at a one-year forward PE of ~6x on revised estimates, with an OUTPERFORM rating.</li><li>Google Trends data shows a modest weakening of RV buyer interest in North America, while Australasia remains stable.</li></ul>

Tourism Holdings (THL) is negatively impacted by the Trump-led trade war, particularly affecting consumer confidence in North America.THL is trading at a ~20% discount to net tangible assets and at a one-year forward PE of ~6x on revised estimates, with an OUTPERFORM rating.Google Trends data shows a modest weakening of RV buyer interest in North America, while Australasia remains stable.

Tourism Holdings - A Rocky Road Eating Through the Rockies

<ul><li>Tourism Holdings (THL) reported a soft 1H25 result, characterised by robust rentals but weak vehicle sales market conditions.</li><li>Notwithstanding the disappointing result, THL's New Zealand operations are performing well and generating attractive returns.</li><li>In contrast, profitability has declined in all other regions. </li></ul>

Tourism Holdings (THL) reported a soft 1H25 result, characterised by robust rentals but weak vehicle sales market conditions.Notwithstanding the disappointing result, THL's New Zealand operations are performing well and generating attractive returns.In contrast, profitability has declined in all other regions. 

Tourism Holdings - 1H25—Fortune Favours the Brave

<ul><li>Tourism Holdings (THL) will report a subdued 1H25 result on 25 February 2025, reflective of depressed vehicle sales market conditions.</li><li>We forecast underlying NPAT of NZ$33m, down ~-16% on the prior year.  Rental performance is likely to be robust with a positive North American peak season.</li><li>In contrast, new and used vehicle sales market conditions remain challenging with both volumes and margins below the prior year. </li></ul>

Tourism Holdings (THL) will report a subdued 1H25 result on 25 February 2025, reflective of depressed vehicle sales market conditions.We forecast underlying NPAT of NZ$33m, down ~-16% on the prior year.  Rental performance is likely to be robust with a positive North American peak season.In contrast, new and used vehicle sales market conditions remain challenging with both volumes and margins below the prior year. 

Tourism Holdings - 1H25 Preview - Things Can Only Get Better

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Our analysis of Google Trends data as a proxy for consumer demand across Tourism Holdings' (THL) key vehicle sales markets suggests general market stability through its vehicle sales low season.</li><li>The data for November 2024 Google search interest shows little underlying change in consumer demand for RVs relative to recent months.</li><li>Critically, the RV sales market hasn't deteriorated further since 2Q24, but similarly has yet to see any meaningful up-tick. </li></ul></div></div></div></div>

Our analysis of Google Trends data as a proxy for consumer demand across Tourism Holdings' (THL) key vehicle sales markets suggests general market stability through its vehicle sales low season.The data for November 2024 Google search interest shows little underlying change in consumer demand for RVs relative to recent months.Critically, the RV sales market hasn't deteriorated further since 2Q24, but similarly has yet to see any meaningful up-tick. 

Tourism Holdings - Google Trenz: Stable Through Low Season

<ul><li>Tourism Holdings' (THL) exposure to the vehicle sales market has significantly impacted both earnings and its share price over the past 12 months; this creates an attractive opportunity as the cycle turns.</li><li>We believe vehicle sales markets in each of THL's jurisdictions are at, or close to, an inflection point.</li><li>Real time Google trends data, a strong proxy for vehicle sales demand, suggests seasonally adjusted sales volumes have not got any worse over the past six months. </li></ul>

Tourism Holdings' (THL) exposure to the vehicle sales market has significantly impacted both earnings and its share price over the past 12 months; this creates an attractive opportunity as the cycle turns.We believe vehicle sales markets in each of THL's jurisdictions are at, or close to, an inflection point.Real time Google trends data, a strong proxy for vehicle sales demand, suggests seasonally adjusted sales volumes have not got any worse over the past six months. 

Tourism Holdings - Google Trenz Inflection Point

New Zealand

Tourism Holdings Limited provides tourist services in New Zealand and Australia. The Company's services include campervan and motor homes, car rentals and coach services.  The Company also offers sightseeing tours, Antarctic tourist centers, boating tours and cave expeditions.

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Tourism Holdings (THL NZ)

Tourism Holdings - A Rocky Road Eating Through the Rockies

Tourism Holdings (THL) is negatively impacted by the Trump-led trade war, particularly affecting consumer confidence in North America.

Forsyth Barr

Tourism Holdings - 1H25—Fortune Favours the Brave

Tourism Holdings (THL) reported a soft 1H25 result, characterised by robust rentals but weak vehicle sales market conditions.

Forsyth Barr

Tourism Holdings - 1H25 Preview - Things Can Only Get Better

Tourism Holdings (THL) will report a subdued 1H25 result on 25 February 2025, reflective of depressed vehicle sales market conditions.

Forsyth Barr

Tourism Holdings - Google Trenz: Stable Through Low Season

Our analysis of Google Trends data as a proxy for consumer demand across Tourism Holdings' (THL) key vehicle sales markets suggests general market...

Forsyth Barr

Tourism Holdings - Google Trenz Inflection Point

Tourism Holdings' (THL) exposure to the vehicle sales market has significantly impacted both earnings and its share price over the past 12 months

Forsyth Barr

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