Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/screen-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5563:1" rel="noopener">SCREEN Holdings (7735 JP)</a> could be added to a global index at the end of the month and there will be a lot of buying in the stock.</li>
<li>There is a fair bit of positioning for the potential passive buying and there will be supply in the stock.</li>
<li>However, the stock trades cheaper than its peers and a correction could provide an opportunity for long-term investors to enter the stock.</li>
</ul>



SCREEN Holdings (7735 JP) could be added to a global index at the end of the month and there will be a lot of buying in the stock.
There is a fair bit of positioning for the potential passive buying and there will be supply in the stock.
However, the stock trades cheaper than its peers and a correction could provide an opportunity for long-term investors to enter the stock.


Screen Holdings (7735 JP): Positioning & Potential Passive Buying

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-10/chip-equipment-maker-asmpt-is-said-to-draw-takeover-interest" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg reported</a> that PAG and other parties have expressed interest in taking <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asm-pacific-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15061:1" rel="noopener">ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK)</a> private. PAG also sounded out several lenders.</li>
<li>ASMPT has three substantial shareholders (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asm-international-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21096:1" rel="noopener">Asm International Nv (ASM NA)</a>, FIL Limited and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/schroders-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22134:1" rel="noopener">Schroders PLC (SDR LN)</a>) which suggests a requirement for a reasonable takeover premium.</li>
<li>ASMPT previously denied a privatisation rumour in 2020. Nevertheless, peers and historical multiples imply a fair price range of HK$82-97 per share, 11-31% premium to the last close.  </li>
</ul>



Bloomberg reported that PAG and other parties have expressed interest in taking ASM Pacific Technology (522 HK) private. PAG also sounded out several lenders.
ASMPT has three substantial shareholders (Asm International Nv (ASM NA), FIL Limited and Schroders PLC (SDR LN)) which suggests a requirement for a reasonable takeover premium.
ASMPT previously denied a privatisation rumour in 2020. Nevertheless, peers and historical multiples imply a fair price range of HK$82-97 per share, 11-31% premium to the last close.  


ASMPT (522 HK): PAG Potential Privatisation?

Independent Insight Provider, Japanese equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Independent Insight Provider, Japanese equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Management is guiding for single-digit sales and profit growth in FY Mar-23, but new orders fell 39% from Q2 to Q4 of last fiscal year.</li>
<li>The Book-to-Bill Ratio fell from 1.66 in Q2 to 1.01 in 4Q, but quarterly orders and sales both remained far above the levels recorded in the three years to Sep-21.</li>
<li>Even if the company does not drop into the red as it did in previous cycles, the downside risk to profits could be 50%. </li>
</ul>


Management is guiding for single-digit sales and profit growth in FY Mar-23, but new orders fell 39% from Q2 to Q4 of last fiscal year.
The Book-to-Bill Ratio fell from 1.66 in Q2 to 1.01 in 4Q, but quarterly orders and sales both remained far above the levels recorded in the three years to Sep-21.
Even if the company does not drop into the red as it did in previous cycles, the downside risk to profits could be 50%. 


TOWA (6315): Watch the Order Flow for an Entry Point

Japan

TOWA CORPORATION produces semiconductor manufacturing equipment including mold packaging, IC inspection units, precision molds and dies, and plastic molds. The Company also provides technical consultation.

Towa Corp (6315 JP)

Screen Holdings (7735 JP): Positioning & Potential Passive Buying

The increased market cap could lead to Screen Holdings being added to passive portfolios at the end of Feb. Positioning in the stock is larger than...

Brian Freitas

ASMPT (522 HK): PAG Potential Privatisation?

Bloomberg reported that PAG and other parties have expressed interest in taking ASMPT private. Peers and historical multiples imply a fair price...

Arun George

TOWA (6315): Watch the Order Flow for an Entry Point

Management guiding for single-digit sales and profit growth in FY Mar-23, but that looks over-optimistic. Orders have dropped sharply and the Book...

Scott Foster