Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A lesser-known Japanese semiconductor equipment maker for both HBM and the AI GPU stack</li>
<li>Recent results may provide an opportunity to get in before new customers and products start shipping in scale</li>
<li>The recent breakout to a new 52-week high allows for meaningful  upside potential</li>
</ul>


A lesser-known Japanese semiconductor equipment maker for both HBM and the AI GPU stack
Recent results may provide an opportunity to get in before new customers and products start shipping in scale
The recent breakout to a new 52-week high allows for meaningful  upside potential


Tactical Trading – Hidden, Japanese AI Capex Beneficiaries

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Supply shocks are  a symptom of a lack of investment</li>
<li>Risk for a correction within an ongoing bullish trend is high</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Supply shocks are  a symptom of a lack of investment
Risk for a correction within an ongoing bullish trend is high


Overview #60 - Supply Shocks All the Way Down

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>After nearly two years of decline, TOWA's new orders appear to have hit bottom this quarter and should start to recover in the three months to September.</li>
<li>Sales and profits should follow a similar trajectory with management expecting nearly 60% of FY Mar-26 sales and more than 80% of operating profit to be recorded in 2H.</li>
<li>Rising demand for AI-related high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and GPU packaging should drive growth for the next 2-3 years, bringing the projected P/E ratio for FY Mar-28 down to 12X.</li>
</ul>


After nearly two years of decline, TOWA's new orders appear to have hit bottom this quarter and should start to recover in the three months to September.
Sales and profits should follow a similar trajectory with management expecting nearly 60% of FY Mar-26 sales and more than 80% of operating profit to be recorded in 2H.
Rising demand for AI-related high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and GPU packaging should drive growth for the next 2-3 years, bringing the projected P/E ratio for FY Mar-28 down to 12X.


Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>SMCI strong after showcasing its latest server products, while BESI drops -7.5% with its earnings beat not big enough.</li>
<li>AI plays in unlikely places: Oji Paper and Toto emerging from the bathroom to the cleanroom.</li>
<li>JSW +9.2% yesterday on US infrastructure potential, but likely we see more upside for Heavies as further conflict in the Middle East looms.</li>
</ul>


SMCI strong after showcasing its latest server products, while BESI drops -7.5% with its earnings beat not big enough.
AI plays in unlikely places: Oji Paper and Toto emerging from the bathroom to the cleanroom.
JSW +9.2% yesterday on US infrastructure potential, but likely we see more upside for Heavies as further conflict in the Middle East looms.


Japan Morning Connection: Markets Spooked by the Specter of Attacks on Iran

<ul>
<li>Micron up AH as numbers beat handily, but not on what you maybe thought. TP's for Sandisk and Kioxia get doubled but expect more on the follow.</li>
<li>Defense will be in focus after loosing their shine to AI on Trump's Ukraine comments and big Boeing deals in the wings.</li>
<li>Quantum names continue higher and Socionext's 7.5% move Monday should have more to run.</li>
</ul>


Micron up AH as numbers beat handily, but not on what you maybe thought. TP's for Sandisk and Kioxia get doubled but expect more on the follow.
Defense will be in focus after loosing their shine to AI on Trump's Ukraine comments and big Boeing deals in the wings.
Quantum names continue higher and Socionext's 7.5% move Monday should have more to run.


Japan Morning Connection: The US Expands Its Tech Reach, Looking to Aquire 10% of Lithium Americas

Japan

TOWA CORPORATION produces semiconductor manufacturing equipment including mold packaging, IC inspection units, precision molds and dies, and plastic molds. The Company also provides technical consultation.

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Towa Corp (6315 JP)

Tactical Trading – Hidden, Japanese AI Capex Beneficiaries

Japanese semiconductor equipment maker poised for growth with new customers and products, recent breakout signals potential upside.

Rikki Malik

Overview #60 - Supply Shocks All the Way Down

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at recent supply shocks in the commodity space

Rikki Malik

Towa (6315): Buy for Orders Rebound

Sales and profits should rebound in 2H of FY Mar-26. Rising demand for high-bandwidth memory and GPU packaging equipment should bring the projected...

Scott Foster

Japan Morning Connection: Markets Spooked by the Specter of Attacks on Iran

Markets spooked by the specter of attacks on Iran as Trump looks for ways to force a deal. Power and industrial semi’s underperformed while Tech...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: The US Expands Its Tech Reach, Looking to Aquire 10% of Lithium Americas

Quantum names continue to do well which may send Socionext even higher. Micron's numbers after hours will add upside to Ibiden. Any pullback in...

Andrew Jackson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tactical Trading – Hidden, Japanese AI Capex Beneficiaries

​Japanese semiconductor equipment maker poised for growth with new customers and products, recent breakout signals potential upside.

Rikki Malik

Overview #60 - Supply Shocks All the Way Down

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at recent supply shocks in the commodity space

Rikki Malik

Towa (6315): Buy for Orders Rebound

Sales and profits should rebound in 2H of FY Mar-26. Rising demand for high-bandwidth memory and GPU packaging equipment should bring the projected...

Scott Foster

Japan Morning Connection: Markets Spooked by the Specter of Attacks on Iran

Markets spooked by the specter of attacks on Iran as Trump looks for ways to force a deal. Power and industrial semi’s underperformed while Tech...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: The US Expands Its Tech Reach, Looking to Aquire 10% of Lithium Americas

Quantum names continue to do well which may send Socionext even higher. Micron's numbers after hours will add upside to Ibiden. Any pullback in...

Andrew Jackson

Japanese semiconductor equipment maker poised for growth with new customers and products, recent breakout signals potential upside.