Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuki-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:732:1" rel="noopener">Suzuki Motor (7269 JP)</a> price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Going long Suzuki and short Toyota targets a 9% return.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The Toyota Motor (7203 JP) vs. Suzuki Motor (7269 JP) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

Highlights: Going long Suzuki and short Toyota targets a 9% return.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Long Toyota (7203 JP) Vs. Short Suzuki (7269 JP): Statistical Arbitrage, 9% Mean-Reversion Upside

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: After three consecutive up weeks, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota (7203 JP)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp-spon-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8245:1" rel="noopener">Toyota ADR (TM US)</a> now screens as overbought, with quantitative models signaling a high probability of a trend reversal.</li>
<li>
Trade Idea: Elevated implied volatility (82–83rd percentile) makes short call strategies attractive. Selling near-term calls captures rich premium while aligning with downside risk.</li>
<li>
Why Read: This Insight highlights a timely opportunity where technical overbought signals and historically rich IV converge — ideal for investors seeking a tactical setup.</li>
</ul>



Context: After three consecutive up weeks, Toyota (7203 JP) / Toyota ADR (TM US) now screens as overbought, with quantitative models signaling a high probability of a trend reversal.

Trade Idea: Elevated implied volatility (82–83rd percentile) makes short call strategies attractive. Selling near-term calls captures rich premium while aligning with downside risk.

Why Read: This Insight highlights a timely opportunity where technical overbought signals and historically rich IV converge — ideal for investors seeking a tactical setup.


Toyota (7203 JP // TM US) Hits Overbought: Rich Options for Tactical Shorts

<ul>
<li>
Context: The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota (7203 JP)</a> vs. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-heavy-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5439:1" rel="noopener">Subaru (7270 JP)</a> price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Both companies in this highly correlated pair reported results on 7 August 2025, opening up a rare opportunity.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.</li>
</ul>



Context: The Toyota (7203 JP) vs. Subaru (7270 JP) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.

Highlight: Both companies in this highly correlated pair reported results on 7 August 2025, opening up a rare opportunity.

Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.


Toyota (7203 JP) Vs. Subaru (7270 JP): Rare Mean-Reversion Setup After Earnings

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Currently nine pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors persist.</li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlight: Currently nine pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors persist.

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (11 Aug)

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a> on Thursday announced it expected a profit hit of nearly $10 billion from US tariffs on cars imported into the USA.</li>
<li>Toyota cut its full-year profit forecast by 16%, citing rising US tariffs on cars, parts, steel, aluminum, uncertainty in market outlook and supplier impacts.</li>
<li>Our model does not see an overbought state at the moment and the stock was rallying on Friday, the forecast is: higher prices next week.
</li>
</ul>



Toyota Motor (7203 JP) on Thursday announced it expected a profit hit of nearly $10 billion from US tariffs on cars imported into the USA.
Toyota cut its full-year profit forecast by 16%, citing rising US tariffs on cars, parts, steel, aluminum, uncertainty in market outlook and supplier impacts.
Our model does not see an overbought state at the moment and the stock was rallying on Friday, the forecast is: higher prices next week.



Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Tactical Outlook After $10B Profit Cut on Tariff Impact

Japan

Toyota Motor Corporation manufactures, sells, leases, and repairs passenger cars, trucks, buses, and their related parts worldwide. The Company also operates financing services through their subsidiaries. Toyota Motor builds homes, produces pleasure boats, and develops intelligent transportation systems including radar cruise control and electronic toll collection systems.

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Toyota Motor Corp Spon Adr (TM US)

Long Toyota (7203 JP) Vs. Short Suzuki (7269 JP): Statistical Arbitrage, 9% Mean-Reversion Upside

This pair trade goes long Toyota (7203 JP) and short Suzuki (7269 JP), aiming for a 9% mean-reversion return as the price ratio normalizes.

Gaudenz Schneider

Toyota (7203 JP // TM US) Hits Overbought: Rich Options for Tactical Shorts

Rich options and an overbought signal converge, with models pointing to a probable reversal. Short call strategies allow investors to monetize...

Gaudenz Schneider

Toyota (7203 JP) Vs. Subaru (7270 JP): Rare Mean-Reversion Setup After Earnings

The pair long Toyota (7203 JP) vs. short Subaru (7270 JP) has generated a trade close signal as of 18 Aug. The price ratio mean-reverted with...

Gaudenz Schneider

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (11 Aug)

Statistical methodology identifies nine pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors, offering unique insights into relative value.

Gaudenz Schneider

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Tactical Outlook After $10B Profit Cut on Tariff Impact

Toyota Motor expects a nearly $10 billion profit hit from US tariffs on imported cars and cuts full-year forecast. The stock rallied closed higher...

Nico Rosti

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Long Toyota (7203 JP) Vs. Short Suzuki (7269 JP): Statistical Arbitrage, 9% Mean-Reversion Upside

This pair trade goes long Toyota (7203 JP) and short Suzuki (7269 JP), aiming for a 9% mean-reversion return as the price ratio normalizes.

Gaudenz Schneider

Toyota (7203 JP // TM US) Hits Overbought: Rich Options for Tactical Shorts

Rich options and an overbought signal converge, with models pointing to a probable reversal. Short call strategies allow investors to monetize...

Gaudenz Schneider

Toyota (7203 JP) Vs. Subaru (7270 JP): Rare Mean-Reversion Setup After Earnings

The pair long Toyota (7203 JP) vs. short Subaru (7270 JP) has generated a trade close signal as of 18 Aug. The price ratio mean-reverted with...

Gaudenz Schneider

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (11 Aug)

​Statistical methodology identifies nine pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors, offering unique insights into relative value.

Gaudenz Schneider

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Tactical Outlook After $10B Profit Cut on Tariff Impact

​Toyota Motor expects a nearly $10 billion profit hit from US tariffs on imported cars and cuts full-year forecast. The stock rallied closed higher...

Nico Rosti

Statistical methodology identifies nine pair trade opportunities across three markets and five sectors, offering unique insights into relative value.

Toyota Motor expects a nearly $10 billion profit hit from US tariffs on imported cars and cuts full-year forecast. The stock rallied closed higher...