HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Following Trump's threats on tariffs and pull-out of meeting with Xi, the 5% collapse in the HSI futures implies a heavy sell-off in HK when the market reopens.</li>
<li>The stocks with the best YTD performance and significant strengths in the last month are the prime candidates most vulnerable to the initial collapse. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hua-hong-semiconductor-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7201:1" rel="noopener">Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK)</a> are badly exposed.</li>
</ul>


Following Trump's threats on tariffs and pull-out of meeting with Xi, the 5% collapse in the HSI futures implies a heavy sell-off in HK when the market reopens.
The stocks with the best YTD performance and significant strengths in the last month are the prime candidates most vulnerable to the initial collapse. 

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), Alibaba (9988 HK), and Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK) are badly exposed.


Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>CSPC Pharmaceutical’s NDA for Anbenitamab injection has been accepted in China. Phase 2 trial of Lead candidate of TransThera Sciences, Tinengotinib in combination with Fulvestrant for breast cancer got approval.</li>
<li>Samsung Biologics signed CMO contract worth $1.3B with a U.S.-based pharmaceutical company. Daiichi Sankyo reported positive clinical trial result for ifinatamab deruxtecan in SCLC.</li>
<li>Sun Pharmaceutical’s Halol facility is under import alert, resulting in the refusal of shipments from the facility into the U.S. Biocon inaugurates its first U.S. manufacturing facility in New Jersey.</li>
</ul>


CSPC Pharmaceutical’s NDA for Anbenitamab injection has been accepted in China. Phase 2 trial of Lead candidate of TransThera Sciences, Tinengotinib in combination with Fulvestrant for breast cancer got approval.
Samsung Biologics signed CMO contract worth $1.3B with a U.S.-based pharmaceutical company. Daiichi Sankyo reported positive clinical trial result for ifinatamab deruxtecan in SCLC.
Sun Pharmaceutical’s Halol facility is under import alert, resulting in the refusal of shipments from the facility into the U.S. Biocon inaugurates its first U.S. manufacturing facility in New Jersey.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (September 14)–CSPC Pharm, TransThera, Samsung Bio, Daiichi Sankyo, Sun Pharm

<ul>
<li>Eisai Initiated rolling submission of sBLA to the FDA for Leqembi subcutaneous autoinjector as a weekly starting dose. Hansoh Pharmaceutical’s innovative drug Xinyue got additional indication approval in China.</li>
<li>Jiangsu Hengrui received marketing approval of its self-developed Class 1 innovative drug, Zeprumetostat in China. Celltrion got approval in Europe to start Phase 3 trial of its Darzalex biosimilar.</li>
<li>SK Bioscience applied for Phase 3 clinical trial of SKYVaricella in South Korea to add the 2-dose indication. Lupin received FDA approval for risperidone extended-release injectable suspension.</li>
</ul>


Eisai Initiated rolling submission of sBLA to the FDA for Leqembi subcutaneous autoinjector as a weekly starting dose. Hansoh Pharmaceutical’s innovative drug Xinyue got additional indication approval in China.
Jiangsu Hengrui received marketing approval of its self-developed Class 1 innovative drug, Zeprumetostat in China. Celltrion got approval in Europe to start Phase 3 trial of its Darzalex biosimilar.
SK Bioscience applied for Phase 3 clinical trial of SKYVaricella in South Korea to add the 2-dose indication. Lupin received FDA approval for risperidone extended-release injectable suspension.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (September 7) – Eisai, Hansoh, Hengrui, Celltrion, SK Bioscience, Lupin

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
China (Shanghai Composite) has been a major focus ever since our July 3 report titled "China and Japan Breaking Out," and it's pulling back toward 10-year base support at 3675-3725;buy.
Japan's TOPIX and TOPIX Small indexes remain bullish (BUY), but RS remains below multi-month resistances; we would upgrade Japan to overweight on RS breakouts.


Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

<ul>
<li>While the 1H25 IPOs have gained an average of 38% YTD, their average share price change has been only 6.3% MTD.</li>
<li>"Rising Suns" stocks are interesting: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hainan-drinda-new-energy-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45252:1" rel="noopener">Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology (2865 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pegbio-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40924:1" rel="noopener">PegBio (2565 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/caocao-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:42803:1" rel="noopener">CaoCao (2643 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-conch-material-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45012:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Conch Material Technology (2560 HK)</a>.  </li>
<li>"Real Treasures" stocks are safe bets: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/duality-biotherapeutics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43878:1" rel="noopener">Duality Biotherapeutics (9606 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unisound-ai-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36800:1" rel="noopener">Unisound AI Tech. (9678 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-pharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44224:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui (1276 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nanshan-aluminium-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43976:1" rel="noopener">Nanshan Aluminium (2610 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


While the 1H25 IPOs have gained an average of 38% YTD, their average share price change has been only 6.3% MTD.
"Rising Suns" stocks are interesting: Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology (2865 HK), PegBio (2565 HK), CaoCao (2643 HK), and Anhui Conch Material Technology (2560 HK).  
"Real Treasures" stocks are safe bets: Duality Biotherapeutics (9606 HK), Unisound AI Tech. (9678 HK), CATL (3750 HK), Jiangsu Hengrui (1276 HK), and Nanshan Aluminium (2610 HK). 


HK Strategy: Finding the Gems in 1H25 HK IPOs

China

TransThera Sciences (Nanjing) Inc. is a China-based biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering and developing innovative small molecule therapies for oncology, inflammatory, and cardiometabolic diseases. Its core product, Tinengotinib (TT-00420), is a multi-targeted kinase (MTK) inhibitor in clinical stages for treating relapsed or refractory, drug-resistant solid tumors. The company is headquartered in Nanjing, China, and was founded in 2014.

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TransThera Sciences (Nanjing) (2617 HK)

HK Strategy: Who Will Suffer the Most?

Trump's tariff threats and market uncertainty lead to a potential heavy sell-off in HK, with top-performing stocks like SMIC, Kuaishou, Alibaba,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

APAC Healthcare Weekly (September 14)–CSPC Pharm, TransThera, Samsung Bio, Daiichi Sankyo, Sun Pharm

CSPC Pharma’s NDA for Anbenitamab injection has been accepted in China. TransThera got trial approval for lead candidate. Samsung Bio signed $1.3B...

Tina Banerjee

APAC Healthcare Weekly (September 7) – Eisai, Hansoh, Hengrui, Celltrion, SK Bioscience, Lupin

Eisai initiated FDA submission of Leqembi subcutaneous injection as starting dose. Hansoh and Hengrui got approvals for new drugs. Celltrion got...

Tina Banerjee

Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Buys in Japan and Europe; China's Shanghai Composite Pulling Back to 10-year Base Support -- Buy; MSCI $ACWI Uptrend Intact. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

HK Strategy: Finding the Gems in 1H25 HK IPOs

1H25 IPOs have seen a YTD average gain of 38%, but only 6.3% MTD. "Rising Suns" like Hainan Drinda New Energy, PegBio, CaoCao Inc., and Anhui...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK Strategy: Who Will Suffer the Most?

​Trump's tariff threats and market uncertainty lead to a potential heavy sell-off in HK, with top-performing stocks like SMIC, Kuaishou, Alibaba,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

APAC Healthcare Weekly (September 14)–CSPC Pharm, TransThera, Samsung Bio, Daiichi Sankyo, Sun Pharm

CSPC Pharma’s NDA for Anbenitamab injection has been accepted in China. TransThera got trial approval for lead candidate. Samsung Bio signed $1.3B...

Tina Banerjee

APAC Healthcare Weekly (September 7) – Eisai, Hansoh, Hengrui, Celltrion, SK Bioscience, Lupin

Eisai initiated FDA submission of Leqembi subcutaneous injection as starting dose. Hansoh and Hengrui got approvals for new drugs. Celltrion got...

Tina Banerjee

Buys in Japan and Europe; China Pulling Back -- Buy; MSCI ACWI Uptrend Intact

Buys in Japan and Europe; China's Shanghai Composite Pulling Back to 10-year Base Support -- Buy; MSCI $ACWI Uptrend Intact. Actionable Themes:...

Vermilion Research

HK Strategy: Finding the Gems in 1H25 HK IPOs

​1H25 IPOs have seen a YTD average gain of 38%, but only 6.3% MTD. "Rising Suns" like Hainan Drinda New Energy, PegBio, CaoCao Inc., and Anhui...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Trump's tariff threats and market uncertainty lead to a potential heavy sell-off in HK, with top-performing stocks like SMIC, Kuaishou, Alibaba,...

1H25 IPOs have seen a YTD average gain of 38%, but only 6.3% MTD. "Rising Suns" like Hainan Drinda New Energy, PegBio, CaoCao Inc., and Anhui...