Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The S&amp;P500 moved sharply lower overnight, shedding 3% apparently on continued concerns about China's future growth prospects.&nbsp; Despite the correction in recent months, the stock market still doesn't look particularly cheap, with the prospective PE on the S&amp;P500 still higher than historical norms. &nbsp;The headwinds facing US stock investors stem from the stagnation in expected profitability over the past 12 months.&nbsp;</li><li>For Australia, the market&rsquo;s prospective PE of 14.5x suggests that the market is neither cheap or expensive at current levels.&nbsp; Like the US, the key headwind facing corporate Australia is the stagnation of future growth prospects, which has now dragged on for five years now due to the terms of trade shock.&nbsp;</li><li>As far as reporting season goes, the market continues to punish even small misses from high growth stocks.&nbsp; I discuss the market pricing for Seek.com and other market darlings that have confronted growth stalls in the past year.</li></ul>

The S&amp;P500 moved sharply lower overnight, shedding 3% apparently on continued concerns about China's future growth prospects.&nbsp; Despite the correction in recent months, the stock market still doesn't look particularly cheap, with the prospective PE on the S&amp;P500 still higher than historical norms. &nbsp;The headwinds facing US stock investors stem from the stagnation in expected profitability over the past 12 months.&nbsp;For Australia, the market&rsquo;s prospective PE of 14.5x suggests that the market is neither cheap or expensive at current levels.&nbsp; Like the US, the key headwind facing corporate Australia is the stagnation of future growth prospects, which has now dragged on for five years now due to the terms of trade shock.&nbsp;As far as reporting season goes, the market continues to punish even small misses from high growth stocks.&nbsp; I discuss the market pricing for Seek.com and other market darlings that have confronted growth stalls in the past year.

<ul><li>Most active funds tout their ability to discriminate between good and poor quality management, and accordingly weight their portfolios towards businesses that they consider to be well managed.&nbsp; In the past decade, portfolio managers have also boasted of their ability to identify and invest in companies that score strongly across environment, governance and social (ESG) dimensions.</li></ul><ul><li>In the second instalment of Evidente's Dissecting Quality series, I show that management quality and corporate governance matter more for complex companies, where shareholders face high monitoring costs. To that end, I develop a systematic model of complexity and agency costs for the ASX200 based on eight company specific factors.</li><li>Some of the industrials that make up the top 20 complex stocks include: Qantas, Amcor, Computershare, Seek and Brambles. Investors can use the model to integrate their assessments of company management and corporate governance. In particular, investors should avoid complex stocks that score poorly across management quality and governance practices.</li></ul>

Most active funds tout their ability to discriminate between good and poor quality management, and accordingly weight their portfolios towards businesses that they consider to be well managed.&nbsp; In the past decade, portfolio managers have also boasted of their ability to identify and invest in companies that score strongly across environment, governance and social (ESG) dimensions.In the second instalment of Evidente's Dissecting Quality series, I show that management quality and corporate governance matter more for complex companies, where shareholders face high monitoring costs. To that end, I develop a systematic model of complexity and agency costs for the ASX200 based on eight company specific factors.Some of the industrials that make up the top 20 complex stocks include: Qantas, Amcor, Computershare, Seek and Brambles. Investors can use the model to integrate their assessments of company management and corporate governance. In particular, investors should avoid complex stocks that score poorly across management quality and governance practices.

Dissecting Quality: When Does Management Quality and Corporate Governance Matter Most?

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Mar 13th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD37.9bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Insurance Australia, CSL, Transurban, James Hardie Industries, Evolution Mining.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Mar 13th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD37.9bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Insurance Australia, CSL, Transurban, James Hardie Industries, Evolution Mining.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 13th): Insurance Australia, CSL, Transurban, James Hardie Industries

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Commonwealth Bank of Australia / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 9nd March, published ~9AM on the 13th March.</li>
<li>The largest industry net increase in the past week was into "Diversified Banks"; the largest industry net decrease was out of "Diversified Metals/Mining". Net shorts decreased A$1.5bn WoW.</li>
<li>Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commonwealth-bank-of-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14:1" rel="noopener">Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcmillan-shakespeare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3023:1" rel="noopener">Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silex-systems-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20181:1" rel="noopener">Silex Systems (SLX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health (RHC AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/news-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26926:1" rel="noopener">News (NWS AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 9nd March, published ~9AM on the 13th March.
The largest industry net increase in the past week was into "Diversified Banks"; the largest industry net decrease was out of "Diversified Metals/Mining". Net shorts decreased A$1.5bn WoW.
Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU), Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS AU), Silex Systems (SLX AU), Ramsay Health (RHC AU), and News (NWS AU).


Aussie Shorts (9th Mar 2026): CBA, Mcmillan Shakespeare, Silex Systems, Ramsay Health, News

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Australia in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Santos, Westpac, ANZ, National Australia Bank, Transurban, Origin Energy, Commonwealth Bank Of Australia.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Australia in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Santos, Westpac, ANZ, National Australia Bank, Transurban, Origin Energy, Commonwealth Bank Of Australia.


MS-Australia Index Earning Revision (Feb): Santos, Westpac, ANZ, National Australia Bank, Transurban

Australia

Transurban Group owns and operates urban toll road networks. The Company has core capabilities in network planning and forecasting, operations and customer management, project development and delivery, technology application, and community engagement. Transurban operates in Australia and North America.

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Transurban Group (TCL AU)

Weekly Impressions

The S&P500 moved sharply lower overnight, shedding 3% apparently on continued concerns about China's future growth prospects. Despite the...

Sam Ferraro

Dissecting Quality: When Does Management Quality and Corporate Governance Matter Most?

Most active funds tout their ability to discriminate between good and poor quality management, and accordingly weight their portfolios towards...

Sam Ferraro

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 13th): Insurance Australia, CSL, Transurban, James Hardie Industries

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Insurance Australia, CSL, Transurban, James Hardie...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Aussie Shorts (9th Mar 2026): CBA, Mcmillan Shakespeare, Silex Systems, Ramsay Health, News

Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU), Mcmillan Shakespeare (MMS AU), Silex Systems...

David Blennerhassett

MS-Australia Index Earning Revision (Feb): Santos, Westpac, ANZ, National Australia Bank, Transurban

We analyzed MS-Australia's consensus for Feb 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Santos, Westpac, ANZ, National Australia Bank, Transurban,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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