Global Mobility/Transport, Equity Long-Short

Mohshin Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

Travelsky Technology Ltd H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/travelsky-technology-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19829:1" rel="noopener">Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK)</a> (TravelSky) issued its 2023 operating statistics and a profit warning that is far below market expectations, the share price has plunged by 36% </li>
<li>Our analysis suggests that staff cost, commission, and systems costs have soared. This will be contained when traffic accelerates and absorbs these fixed cost items </li>
<li>Our target price of HKD9.92 (+21% UPSIDE) is based on 2024 PE 14.8x (1SD below mean). Keep an eye, worthwhile trade, due for a bounce    </li>
</ul>



Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK) (TravelSky) issued its 2023 operating statistics and a profit warning that is far below market expectations, the share price has plunged by 36% 
Our analysis suggests that staff cost, commission, and systems costs have soared. This will be contained when traffic accelerates and absorbs these fixed cost items 
Our target price of HKD9.92 (+21% UPSIDE) is based on 2024 PE 14.8x (1SD below mean). Keep an eye, worthwhile trade, due for a bounce    


Travelsky (696 HK | BUY | TP:HKD9.92): Forget 2023, Think of 2024-25 Which Will Be Much Better

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/travelsky-technology-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19829:1" rel="noopener">Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK)</a> Jan-Feb operational data strong, volume processed by domestic +45% YoY and international by +52% YoY; much higher than the consensus 2024 forecast of 15%  </li>
<li>Traffic among the Big 3 Chinese airlines was up 46% YoY (-9% MoM) in March to +8% vs 2019. Domestic traffic rose 19% YoY (-11% MoM) to +24% vs 2019</li>
<li>TP of HKD9.92 (+8% UPSIDE) is based on 2024 PE 14.8x (1SD below mean). The upside is uncompelling, but we advocate a HOLD as traffic growth is stronger than consensus   </li>
</ul>



Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK) Jan-Feb operational data strong, volume processed by domestic +45% YoY and international by +52% YoY; much higher than the consensus 2024 forecast of 15%  
Traffic among the Big 3 Chinese airlines was up 46% YoY (-9% MoM) in March to +8% vs 2019. Domestic traffic rose 19% YoY (-11% MoM) to +24% vs 2019
TP of HKD9.92 (+8% UPSIDE) is based on 2024 PE 14.8x (1SD below mean). The upside is uncompelling, but we advocate a HOLD as traffic growth is stronger than consensus   


Travelsky (696 HK | HOLD | TP:HKD9.92): Domestic Travel Will Support Growth

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/travelsky-technology-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19829:1" rel="noopener">Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK)</a> share price has recovered by 25% since January 2024 sell off</li>
<li>CNY travel data indicates a huge potential of revenue increase for Travelsky.</li>
<li>At 18x PER, Travelsky has become a bargain in the travel sector that is clearly rebounding. </li>
</ul>



Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK) share price has recovered by 25% since January 2024 sell off
CNY travel data indicates a huge potential of revenue increase for Travelsky.
At 18x PER, Travelsky has become a bargain in the travel sector that is clearly rebounding. 


Travelsky (696 HK): Big Jan and Feb so Far

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/travelsky-technology-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19829:1" rel="noopener">Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK)</a> share price was unjustly sold off due to flows rather than operational performance.</li>
<li>The key business is processing flights for domestic tourism, with a lesser correlation to geopolitical issues.</li>
<li>Due to the strong earnings growth, PER is adjusted from 60x to 25x. </li>
</ul>



Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK) share price was unjustly sold off due to flows rather than operational performance.
The key business is processing flights for domestic tourism, with a lesser correlation to geopolitical issues.
Due to the strong earnings growth, PER is adjusted from 60x to 25x. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/travelsky-technology-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19829:1" rel="noopener">Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK)</a> has been the predictable play for a rebound in domestic tourism in China.</li>
<li>1H23 result did not show anything that should alert investors to the changes in business practices.</li>
<li>The recent profit warning disclosure has alerted investors that there is something else beyond the usual.</li>
</ul>



Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK) has been the predictable play for a rebound in domestic tourism in China.
1H23 result did not show anything that should alert investors to the changes in business practices.
The recent profit warning disclosure has alerted investors that there is something else beyond the usual.


China

Travelsky Technology Limited provides information technology solutions for China's air travel and tourism industries.  The Company provides electronic travel distribution systems, or ETD, in China, develops airport passenger processing and air cargo systems, owns and operates real-time network for China's civil aviation industry, and operates Internet-based travel platform.

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Travelsky Technology Ltd H (696 HK)

Travelsky (696 HK | BUY | TP:HKD9.92): Forget 2023, Think of 2024-25 Which Will Be Much Better

Travelsky issued a profit warning, causing a 36% drop in its share price. Our analysis suggests costs will eventually be in control when traffic...

Mohshin Aziz

Travelsky (696 HK | HOLD | TP:HKD9.92): Domestic Travel Will Support Growth

Strong operational data in 1Q24, especially for domestic traffic growth (+19% YoY) which surpasses consensus expectations of 15% growth for full...

Mohshin Aziz

Travelsky (696 HK): Big Jan and Feb so Far

At 18x PER, Travelsky clearly is trading at undemanding valuation. The large growth of tourists coming during CNY also indicates that the potential...

Henry Soediarko

Travelsky (696): Cheaper Now

Travelsky share price is cheaper now due to the strong earnings growth. With a focus on domestic tourism, it is set to further benefit from this...

Henry Soediarko

Travelsky (696): Stay Away for Now

Usually Travelsky is reliable name for a play in rebound in domestic tourism with a relatively predictable earnings but the recent disclosure...

Henry Soediarko

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Travelsky (696 HK | BUY | TP:HKD9.92): Forget 2023, Think of 2024-25 Which Will Be Much Better

​Travelsky issued a profit warning, causing a 36% drop in its share price. Our analysis suggests costs will eventually be in control when traffic...

Mohshin Aziz

Travelsky (696 HK | HOLD | TP:HKD9.92): Domestic Travel Will Support Growth

​Strong operational data in 1Q24, especially for domestic traffic growth (+19% YoY) which surpasses consensus expectations of 15% growth for full...

Mohshin Aziz

Travelsky (696 HK): Big Jan and Feb so Far

At 18x PER, Travelsky clearly is trading at undemanding valuation. The large growth of tourists coming during CNY also indicates that the potential...

Henry Soediarko

Travelsky (696): Cheaper Now

Travelsky share price is cheaper now due to the strong earnings growth. With a focus on domestic tourism, it is set to further benefit from this...

Henry Soediarko

Travelsky (696): Stay Away for Now

Usually Travelsky is reliable name for a play in rebound in domestic tourism with a relatively predictable earnings but the recent disclosure...

Henry Soediarko

Travelsky issued a profit warning, causing a 36% drop in its share price. Our analysis suggests costs will eventually be in control when traffic...

Strong operational data in 1Q24, especially for domestic traffic growth (+19% YoY) which surpasses consensus expectations of 15% growth for full...