Research from Asian Century Stocks, Asian Century Stocks

Michael Fritzell

Research from Asian Century Stocks

Providing financial journalism in the Asia-Pacific

Asian Century Stocks

Asian Century Stocks is a newsletter providing financial journalism for companies and stocks in the Asia-Pacific. 
The Asian Century Stocks logotype “百” stands for “one hundred” or a “century”. The economic centre of gravity is moving towards Asia. Yet most global investors are missing out.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TWE.AX/?ref=asiancenturystocks.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Treasury Wine Estates</a> (TWE AU — US$3.0 billion) is one of the world's largest wine producers globally. And it's one of the very few large companies in Australia trading at a reasonable valuation multiple.
</li>
<li>
It started as the wine division of brewery giant Forster's Group. From the 1990s onwards, Foster's acquired vineyards and brands such as Penfolds, Lindeman's and Beringer.
</li>
<li>
But throughout the 2000s, this wine division underperformed, draining cash from Foster's highly profitable beer business. So in 2011, it was eventually spun off into a separately listed entity called Treasury Wine Estates (TWE).
</li>
</ul>



Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AU — US$3.0 billion) is one of the world's largest wine producers globally. And it's one of the very few large companies in Australia trading at a reasonable valuation multiple.


It started as the wine division of brewery giant Forster's Group. From the 1990s onwards, Foster's acquired vineyards and brands such as Penfolds, Lindeman's and Beringer.


But throughout the 2000s, this wine division underperformed, draining cash from Foster's highly profitable beer business. So in 2011, it was eventually spun off into a separately listed entity called Treasury Wine Estates (TWE).



Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AU): Penfolds Owner at 11x P/E and 7% Dividend Yield

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Given its portfolio mix, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/treasury-wine-estates-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:710:1" rel="noopener">Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AU)</a> does not expect a material impact on its business from the blanket 10% tariff on all goods imported from Australia/New Zealand.</li>
<li>However, there is a high probability that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/treasury-wine-estates-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:710:1" rel="noopener">Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AU)</a> will be deleted from a global index in May and that will lead to large selling from passives.</li>
<li>There has been an increase in short interest and an increase in other positioning. Trading will be volatile but there could be a downward bias over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>


Given its portfolio mix, Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AU) does not expect a material impact on its business from the blanket 10% tariff on all goods imported from Australia/New Zealand.
However, there is a high probability that Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AU) will be deleted from a global index in May and that will lead to large selling from passives.
There has been an increase in short interest and an increase in other positioning. Trading will be volatile but there could be a downward bias over the next few weeks.


Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AU): Passive Selling Adds to Tariff Woes

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.</li>
<li>We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.</li>
<li>The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.</li>
</ul>


With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.


Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 10th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD28.1bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Woolworths, ANZ, Qbe Insurance, Qantas Airways, Cleanaway Waste Management.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Oct 10th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD28.1bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Woolworths, ANZ, Qbe Insurance, Qantas Airways, Cleanaway Waste Management.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 10th): Woolworths, ANZ, Qbe Insurance, Qantas Airways

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The ADDs/DELs for the ASX index family for the September 2025 index rebal event were announced after market close on Friday 5th September 2025. We got 44/47 predictions correct.</li>
<li>There are 25 ADDs and 30 DELs collectively for ASX 50, ASX 100, ASX 200, and ASX 300.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations for each of these confirmed index changes.</li>
</ul>


The ADDs/DELs for the ASX index family for the September 2025 index rebal event were announced after market close on Friday 5th September 2025. We got 44/47 predictions correct.
There are 25 ADDs and 30 DELs collectively for ASX 50, ASX 100, ASX 200, and ASX 300.
In this insight, we take a look at our final flow expectations for each of these confirmed index changes.


Quiddity ASX Sep25 Results: ADDs Up Vs DELs Post-Announcement; Positioning Might Be Significant

Australia

Treasury Wine Estates Ltd was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Southbank, Victoria, Australia. The Company's line of business includes vineyard operations and international marketing and distribution of wine.

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Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AU)