Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Semi-Cap names outperforming an otherwise dreary tape after TSMC announces no Chinese equipment in its 2nm lines for fear of US reprisals </li>
<li>Yields rose on concerns it's going to be a 'one and done' situation after September cuts </li>
<li>Trend Micro looking interesting after rebounding off the lows yesterday - with OTC prints possibly pointing to a seller getting cleaned up after 2-months of woeful price action </li>
</ul>


Semi-Cap names outperforming an otherwise dreary tape after TSMC announces no Chinese equipment in its 2nm lines for fear of US reprisals 
Yields rose on concerns it's going to be a 'one and done' situation after September cuts 
Trend Micro looking interesting after rebounding off the lows yesterday - with OTC prints possibly pointing to a seller getting cleaned up after 2-months of woeful price action 


Intel Announces the Potential for Further Dilution by the US Govt Unless It Keeps Fabs

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>DeepSeek app revolutionizes smart vehicles with advanced technology for a seamless driving experience and enhanced safety features.</li><li>Primarius enhances EDA consolidation in China through the acquisition of Actt, accelerating innovation and growth in the semiconductor industry.</li><li>SMIC experiences record revenue growth in 2024, but sees a 23% decline in profit, highlighting the challenges faced by the company in a competitive market. Trend Micro warns of AI security risks and 'grandma prompt' threat at the AI Expo 2025. Uni-President Group strengthens e-commerce presence through strategic acquisitions and investments in Yahoo Taiwan and PChome Online.</li></ul>

DeepSeek app revolutionizes smart vehicles with advanced technology for a seamless driving experience and enhanced safety features.Primarius enhances EDA consolidation in China through the acquisition of Actt, accelerating innovation and growth in the semiconductor industry.SMIC experiences record revenue growth in 2024, but sees a 23% decline in profit, highlighting the challenges faced by the company in a competitive market. Trend Micro warns of AI security risks and 'grandma prompt' threat at the AI Expo 2025. Uni-President Group strengthens e-commerce presence through strategic acquisitions and investments in Yahoo Taiwan and PChome Online.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (29-Mar-2025): Smart cars use DeepSeek apps.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In a big surprise, there is only one change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> in March with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-logistics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11909:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP)</a>. </li>
<li>The non-inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> is a big surprise given that the stock was ranked among the top 75 stocks by liquidity. There could be selling near-term.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> has been added at a 0.5 PAF and that will increase to 1 in September. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> could be capped yet again in September.</li>
</ul>


In a big surprise, there is only one change for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) in March with BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) replacing Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP). 
The non-inclusion of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) is a big surprise given that the stock was ranked among the top 75 stocks by liquidity. There could be selling near-term.

BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) has been added at a 0.5 PAF and that will increase to 1 in September. Fast Retailing (9983 JP) could be capped yet again in September.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Baycurrent (6532) Replaces Mitsubishi Logistics (9301); Kokusai Elec👎

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technolog" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH)</a> filed for an H Share listing to raise US$5 billion, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hexaware-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7882:1" rel="noopener">Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN)</a> seeks to raise US$1 billion.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trend-micro-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13172:1" rel="noopener">Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kaonavi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29703:1" rel="noopener">Kaonavi Inc (4435 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zenhoren-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40227:1" rel="noopener">Zenhoren (5845 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paragon-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5994:1" rel="noopener">Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)</a>. 
</li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) filed for an H Share listing to raise US$5 billion, and Hexaware Technologies (HEXW IN) seeks to raise US$1 billion.
Event-Driven developments: Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP), Kaonavi Inc (4435 JP), Zenhoren (5845 JP), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Fosun Tourism (1992 HK), Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP). 



Weekly Deals Digest (16 Feb) - Trend Micro, Zenhoren, HKBN, Fosun Tourism, Paragon REIT, CATL

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Reportedly buyout firms are "vying for" <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trend-micro-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13172:1" rel="noopener">Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP)</a>. The stock went limit up today. Again. The stock is now getting to the expensive side.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/furukawa-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19521:1" rel="noopener">Furukawa (5715 JP)</a> has changed their capital allocation policy for the third time. The company is a cyclical, and will likely always suffer the indignity of a cyclical multiple.</li>
<li>While it often pays to follows where the family invests when assessing holdco structures, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco International (200 HK)</a>'s NAV discount is simply too narrow for a simple holding company structure.</li>
</ul>


Reportedly buyout firms are "vying for" Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP). The stock went limit up today. Again. The stock is now getting to the expensive side.

Furukawa (5715 JP) has changed their capital allocation policy for the third time. The company is a cyclical, and will likely always suffer the indignity of a cyclical multiple.
While it often pays to follows where the family invests when assessing holdco structures, Melco International (200 HK)'s NAV discount is simply too narrow for a simple holding company structure.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Trend Micro, Furukawa, Melco, Ingenia/Lifestyle

Japan

Trend Micro Incorporated develops and markets anti-virus computer software and internet security software.  The Company also sells its products in the United States, Europe, and Asia.

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Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP)

Intel Announces the Potential for Further Dilution by the US Govt Unless It Keeps Fabs

Semi-Cap stocks outperforming due to TSMC's decision, Yields rising on concerns of one-time cuts, Trend Micro showing potential after rebound.

Andrew Jackson

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (29-Mar-2025): Smart cars use DeepSeek apps.

DeepSeek app enhances smart vehicle capabilities. Primarius accelerates EDA consolidation with Actt acquisition in China while SMIC's profit...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Baycurrent (6532) Replaces Mitsubishi Logistics (9301); Kokusai Elec👎

Baycurrent replaces Mitsubishi Logistics in the NKY at the close 31 March. Kokusai Electric misses out and Fast Retailing is capped. One-way...

Brian Freitas

Weekly Deals Digest (16 Feb) - Trend Micro, Zenhoren, HKBN, Fosun Tourism, Paragon REIT, CATL

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Trend Micro, Kaonavi, Zenhoren, Get Nice Fin, HKBN, Fosun Tourism, Paragon REIT) and ECM...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Trend Micro, Furukawa, Melco, Ingenia/Lifestyle

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

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P/E

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Intel Announces the Potential for Further Dilution by the US Govt Unless It Keeps Fabs

​Semi-Cap stocks outperforming due to TSMC's decision, Yields rising on concerns of one-time cuts, Trend Micro showing potential after rebound.

Andrew Jackson

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (29-Mar-2025): Smart cars use DeepSeek apps.

DeepSeek app enhances smart vehicle capabilities. Primarius accelerates EDA consolidation with Actt acquisition in China while SMIC's profit...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Baycurrent (6532) Replaces Mitsubishi Logistics (9301); Kokusai Elec👎

Baycurrent replaces Mitsubishi Logistics in the NKY at the close 31 March. Kokusai Electric misses out and Fast Retailing is capped. One-way...

Brian Freitas

Weekly Deals Digest (16 Feb) - Trend Micro, Zenhoren, HKBN, Fosun Tourism, Paragon REIT, CATL

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Trend Micro, Kaonavi, Zenhoren, Get Nice Fin, HKBN, Fosun Tourism, Paragon REIT) and ECM...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Trend Micro, Furukawa, Melco, Ingenia/Lifestyle

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Semi-Cap stocks outperforming due to TSMC's decision, Yields rising on concerns of one-time cuts, Trend Micro showing potential after rebound.