India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>India’s GST 2.0 reform slashes tax rates on essentials, durables, autos, and healthcare while exempting insurance and education.</li>
<li>The move could accelerate consumption, especially in rural India, but risks straining government revenues and widening fiscal deficits.</li>
<li>If implemented smoothly, GST 2.0 may drive a multi-sector consumption upcycle, though revenue trade-offs and uneven pass-through pose risks.</li>
</ul>


India’s GST 2.0 reform slashes tax rates on essentials, durables, autos, and healthcare while exempting insurance and education.
The move could accelerate consumption, especially in rural India, but risks straining government revenues and widening fiscal deficits.
If implemented smoothly, GST 2.0 may drive a multi-sector consumption upcycle, though revenue trade-offs and uneven pass-through pose risks.


Thematic Report on GST 2.0 Regime: Who Gains, Who Loses as India Bets on Demand Revival.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Mixed trends: Discretionary demand stayed uneven, with footwear mass and mid-market segments under pressure due to early monsoon, geopolitics, and rising unorganised competition, while QSR recovery held steady and value retailers like V-Mart/D-Mart outperformed.</li><li>Premium vs. Value segment: While the premium, luxury, and value segments remain strong, some pockets of urban consumption and footwear continue to face pressure.</li><li>Store expansion continues: Despite the muted environment, most companies in our coverage have maintained or even increased their store opening guidance as they expand into smaller towns, supported by strong long-term growth levers.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mixed trends: Discretionary demand stayed uneven, with footwear mass and mid-market segments under pressure due to early monsoon, geopolitics, and rising unorganised competition, while QSR recovery held steady and value retailers like V-Mart/D-Mart outperformed.Premium vs. Value segment: While the premium, luxury, and value segments remain strong, some pockets of urban consumption and footwear continue to face pressure.Store expansion continues: Despite the muted environment, most companies in our coverage have maintained or even increased their store opening guidance as they expand into smaller towns, supported by strong long-term growth levers.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Bajaj Auto: The company continues to face headwinds in its key export market, Nigeria</li><li>While currency tailwinds should aid the rest of the exports, we believe that it is a double-edged sword, which is likely to cause higher currency inflation in Nigeria, leading to lower purchasing power</li><li>The heavy rare earth magnet shortage has compelled the company to look at alternatives, which could lead to a temporary fix post Q2, though it would take 6-9 months to completely de-risk from the supply risk</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bajaj Auto: The company continues to face headwinds in its key export market, NigeriaWhile currency tailwinds should aid the rest of the exports, we believe that it is a double-edged sword, which is likely to cause higher currency inflation in Nigeria, leading to lower purchasing powerThe heavy rare earth magnet shortage has compelled the company to look at alternatives, which could lead to a temporary fix post Q2, though it would take 6-9 months to completely de-risk from the supply riskContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Bajaj Auto, Trent, Lupin, Prestige Estates, Berger Paints...

<ul><li>Our discretionary universe is set for a mixed performance in Q1FY26, with overall revenue projected to grow by ~18% YoY in Q1FY26, driven by a few outliers, both positive and negative</li><li>Excluding the strong growth from new age businesses (~49% growth YoY) and headwinds faced by paint companies (~2% growth YoY, negative), our universe is still likely to grow at ~17%</li><li>We anticipate continued margin pressure as SSSGs remain weak, ranging from negative to lower single-digits for most</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our discretionary universe is set for a mixed performance in Q1FY26, with overall revenue projected to grow by ~18% YoY in Q1FY26, driven by a few outliers, both positive and negativeExcluding the strong growth from new age businesses (~49% growth YoY) and headwinds faced by paint companies (~2% growth YoY, negative), our universe is still likely to grow at ~17%We anticipate continued margin pressure as SSSGs remain weak, ranging from negative to lower single-digits for mostContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Discretionary (Q1FY26 Results Preview): Q1FY26–a mixed bag

<ul><li>Consumer demand remains tepid: Discretionary demand remains subdued, with a more pronounced impact on footwear.</li><li>While QSR saw some signs of recovery in SSSG. Value retailers like V-Mart/ D-Mart performed relatively better and remain optimistic about future growth.</li><li>Premium vs. value segment: While the premium, luxury, and value segments remain strong, some pockets of urban consumption and footwear continue to face pressure.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer demand remains tepid: Discretionary demand remains subdued, with a more pronounced impact on footwear.While QSR saw some signs of recovery in SSSG. Value retailers like V-Mart/ D-Mart performed relatively better and remain optimistic about future growth.Premium vs. value segment: While the premium, luxury, and value segments remain strong, some pockets of urban consumption and footwear continue to face pressure.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Top Conviction Ideas - “Retail” - Discretionary Witnessed Mixed Bag Performance

India

Trent Limited is an Indian retail company and a part of the Tata Group, primarily engaged in the retailing of apparel, footwear, accessories, beauty products, and home decor. It operates various retail formats, including Westside for fashion and lifestyle, Zudio for value fashion, Utsa for Indian ethnic wear, and Star Bazaar for groceries. The company is headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra, India, and was originally incorporated in 1952 as Lakme Limited before being renamed Trent Limited in 1998.

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Trent (TRENT IN)

Thematic Report on GST 2.0 Regime: Who Gains, Who Loses as India Bets on Demand Revival.

India's GST 2.0 reform cuts tax rates on essentials, durables, autos, and healthcare, potentially boosting consumption but risking fiscal deficits.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Top Conviction Ideas - “Retail”

Premium vs. Value segment: While the premium, luxury, and value segments remain strong, some pockets of urban consumption and footwear continue to...

Axis Direct

HSIE Results Daily: Bajaj Auto, Trent, Lupin, Prestige Estates, Berger Paints...

Bajaj Auto: The company continues to face headwinds in its key export market, NigeriaWhile currency tailwinds should aid the rest of the exports,...

HDFC Securities

Consumer Discretionary (Q1FY26 Results Preview): Q1FY26–a mixed bag

Our discretionary universe is set for a mixed performance in Q1FY26, with overall revenue projected to grow by ~18% YoY in Q1FY26, driven by a few...

HDFC Securities

Top Conviction Ideas - “Retail” - Discretionary Witnessed Mixed Bag Performance

Premium vs. value segment: While the premium, luxury, and value segments remain strong, some pockets of urban consumption and footwear continue to...

Axis Direct

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Thematic Report on GST 2.0 Regime: Who Gains, Who Loses as India Bets on Demand Revival.

​India's GST 2.0 reform cuts tax rates on essentials, durables, autos, and healthcare, potentially boosting consumption but risking fiscal deficits.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Top Conviction Ideas - “Retail”

Premium vs. Value segment: While the premium, luxury, and value segments remain strong, some pockets of urban consumption and footwear continue to...

Axis Direct

HSIE Results Daily: Bajaj Auto, Trent, Lupin, Prestige Estates, Berger Paints...

Bajaj Auto: The company continues to face headwinds in its key export market, NigeriaWhile currency tailwinds should aid the rest of the exports,...

HDFC Securities

Consumer Discretionary (Q1FY26 Results Preview): Q1FY26–a mixed bag

Our discretionary universe is set for a mixed performance in Q1FY26, with overall revenue projected to grow by ~18% YoY in Q1FY26, driven by a few...

HDFC Securities

Top Conviction Ideas - “Retail” - Discretionary Witnessed Mixed Bag Performance

Premium vs. value segment: While the premium, luxury, and value segments remain strong, some pockets of urban consumption and footwear continue to...

Axis Direct

India's GST 2.0 reform cuts tax rates on essentials, durables, autos, and healthcare, potentially boosting consumption but risking fiscal deficits.