Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We had <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International (9992 HK)</a> at the cusp of index inclusion. An increase in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/postal-savings-bank-of-china-c-2a9047eb-af5e-4621-85c4-3cac677a1d13" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22848:1" rel="noopener">Postal Savings Bank of China (1658 HK)</a>'s FAF led to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart</a> missing out.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 3.18% leading to a round-trip trade of HK$3.8bn (US$489m).</li>
<li>There are large inflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/netease-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29030:1" rel="noopener">NetEase (9999 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (9888 HK)</a> due to a FAF methodology change for Secondary Listings.</li>
</ul>


We had Pop Mart International (9992 HK) at the cusp of index inclusion. An increase in Postal Savings Bank of China (1658 HK)'s FAF led to Pop Mart missing out.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 3.18% leading to a round-trip trade of HK$3.8bn (US$489m).
There are large inflows for NetEase (9999 HK), Trip.com Group (9961 HK) and Baidu (9888 HK) due to a FAF methodology change for Secondary Listings.


HSCEI Index Rebalance: Why Did Pop Mart (9992 HK) Miss?

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>The official index changes and indicative weights for the June 2025 index rebal event will be announced on Friday 16th May 2025.</li>
<li>We continue to expect zero index changes for June 2025 but we estimate there to be capping flows of US$396mn one-way.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
The official index changes and indicative weights for the June 2025 index rebal event will be announced on Friday 16th May 2025.
We continue to expect zero index changes for June 2025 but we estimate there to be capping flows of US$396mn one-way.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Jun25: US$396mn One-Way; Announcement Tomorrow

<ul>
<li>The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.</li>
<li>The official index changes and indicative weights for the June 2025 index rebal event will be announced after the close on Friday 16th May 2025.</li>
<li>We continue to expect zero index changes for June 2025 but we estimate there to be capping flows of US$1.85bn one-way.</li>
</ul>


The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
The official index changes and indicative weights for the June 2025 index rebal event will be announced after the close on Friday 16th May 2025.
We continue to expect zero index changes for June 2025 but we estimate there to be capping flows of US$1.85bn one-way.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Jun25: US$1.85bn One-Way; Announcement Soon

Pop Mart International Group L / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> that will be implemented at the close on 6 June.</li>
<li>With no constituent changes, one-way turnover will be 1.9% with 3 stocks being capped and FAF changes for a few stocks due to a methodology change for Secondary Listings. </li>
<li>We highlight 7 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. Everything depends on the index committee, and we would not be surprised by zero changes.</li>
</ul>


Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 6 June.
With no constituent changes, one-way turnover will be 1.9% with 3 stocks being capped and FAF changes for a few stocks due to a methodology change for Secondary Listings. 
We highlight 7 stocks that have a higher probability of being added to the index. Everything depends on the index committee, and we would not be surprised by zero changes.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for June25

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 2nd.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Baba (9988 HK), CCB (939 HK), Jd (9618 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 2nd.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Baba (9988 HK), CCB (939 HK), Jd (9618 HK).


China

Trip.com Group Limited provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services. Trip.com Group provides services worldwide.

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Trip.com Group (9961 HK)

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Why Did Pop Mart (9992 HK) Miss?

Pop Mart misses inclusion due to a float increase for a different stock. Estimated turnover is 3.18% and trade is HK$3.8bn. NetEase, Trip.com,...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard HSCEI Jun25: US$396mn One-Way; Announcement Tomorrow

NetEase (9999 HK), Baidu (9888 HK), and Trip.com Group (9961 HK) are likely to see their free float-adjusted factors get revised upwards and...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Jun25: US$1.85bn One-Way; Announcement Soon

We estimate one-way flows of US$1.85bn which translates to a turnover of 8.4%. Some names are expected to see large index inflows due to upward...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for June25

We highlight 7 potential inclusions for the HSI in June, though the index committee could make no changes as we have seen in the past. Pop Mart...

Brian Freitas

HK Short Interest Weekly: Baba, CCB, Jd

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of May 2nd and highlight short interest changes in Baba, CCB, Jd.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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