Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The changes to the Hang Seng family of indices were announced post market close on Friday - final capping will use closing prices from 2 June.</li>
<li>There are 3 adds for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, 2 changes each for the<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener"> HSCEI</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a>, 1 change for the HSBIO Index and 7 adds for the HSCI Index.</li>
<li>There will be positioning in most stocks but there could be continued positioning in the names that will be added to Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
</ul>


The changes to the Hang Seng family of indices were announced post market close on Friday - final capping will use closing prices from 2 June.
There are 3 adds for the HSI, 2 changes each for the HSCEI and HSTECH, 1 change for the HSBIO Index and 7 adds for the HSCI Index.
There will be positioning in most stocks but there could be continued positioning in the names that will be added to Southbound Stock Connect.


Hang Seng Indexes: Changes Lead to US$6.6bn Trade; Plus Stock Connect & Global Index Inclusions

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:656:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)</a> is among the stocks that will be subject to significant passive selling flows at the end of May, according to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/brian-freitas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:4091" rel="noopener">Brian Freitas.</a>
</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:656:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)</a>'s pullback last week is trivially small relative to the expected selling pressure. Our model's down-path analogues suggest the real move hasn't started yet.</li>
<li>Our model's path analogues point to a probable landing zone of HK$4.97–4.88 over the next 3 weeks, with tail risk toward HK$4.6 if forced selling clusters around the rebalance date.</li>
</ul>



Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK) is among the stocks that will be subject to significant passive selling flows at the end of May, according to Brian Freitas.


Bank Of China Ltd (H) (3988 HK)'s pullback last week is trivially small relative to the expected selling pressure. Our model's down-path analogues suggest the real move hasn't started yet.
Our model's path analogues point to a probable landing zone of HK$4.97–4.88 over the next 3 weeks, with tail risk toward HK$4.6 if forced selling clusters around the rebalance date.


Bank Of China (3988 HK) Tactical Outlook: Passive Selling Still Early Ahead of May Rebalance

<ul>
<li>A global index provider will be moving to a new float methodology from the upcoming rebalance in May. That will lead to lower floats for a lot of HK-listed stocks.</li>
<li>Lower float will result in passive selling of over US$5bn across HK-listed stocks. The top 15 sells by notional make up over 75% of the total sell flow.</li>
<li>The largest passive selling is expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:656:1" rel="noopener">Bank Of China</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-hung-kai-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:111:1" rel="noopener">Sun Hung Kai Properties</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc-a55ca720-5968-48f0-8194-ac94390d065c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32212:1" rel="noopener">Baidu</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nongfu-spring-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28955:1" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring</a>. </li>
</ul>


A global index provider will be moving to a new float methodology from the upcoming rebalance in May. That will lead to lower floats for a lot of HK-listed stocks.
Lower float will result in passive selling of over US$5bn across HK-listed stocks. The top 15 sells by notional make up over 75% of the total sell flow.
The largest passive selling is expected in Tencent, China Construction Bank, Bank Of China, Sun Hung Kai Properties, Trip.com Group, BeiGene, Baidu and Nongfu Spring. 


Global Index Float Methodology Change: HK Stocks with Big Passive Sells

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Equity Bottom-Up

Contemporary Amperex Technology / Equity Bottom-Up

Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK)

<ul>
<li>Since inception on 15th May 2025, our Asia-ex-Japan Model Portfolio is up 33.6%, against MXASJ's 30.9% appreciation. Topmost return generators are from Korean and Taiwanese tech, Korean defense and industrials.</li>
<li>The US-Iran negotiations failed, likely supporting the surge in energy prices. Green energy and EVs seem strongly supported. AI losers and companies vulnerable to disorderly competition could continue to underperform.</li>
<li>We exclude Tencent Music and Xiaomi, include CNOOC, CATL, Anta Sports. We are overweight HK/China, Korea and Singapore. We are neutral India and underweight Taiwan, through significantly overweight Taiwan tech.</li>
</ul>


Since inception on 15th May 2025, our Asia-ex-Japan Model Portfolio is up 33.6%, against MXASJ's 30.9% appreciation. Topmost return generators are from Korean and Taiwanese tech, Korean defense and industrials.
The US-Iran negotiations failed, likely supporting the surge in energy prices. Green energy and EVs seem strongly supported. AI losers and companies vulnerable to disorderly competition could continue to underperform.
We exclude Tencent Music and Xiaomi, include CNOOC, CATL, Anta Sports. We are overweight HK/China, Korea and Singapore. We are neutral India and underweight Taiwan, through significantly overweight Taiwan tech.


Asia Equities: Model Portfolio Changes - More to Chinese EV Supply Chain, Less to AI Losers

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-China in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on ALIBABA, TENCENT, PDD, JIANGSU EASTERN SHENGHONG, TRINA SOLAR, GDS, China Life, PING AN INSURANCE.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-China in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on ALIBABA, TENCENT, PDD, JIANGSU EASTERN SHENGHONG, TRINA SOLAR, GDS, China Life, PING AN INSURANCE.


MS-China Index Earning Revision (Feb): ALIBABA, TENCENT, PDD

Singapore

Trip.com Group is a leading global one-stop travel platform offering accommodation reservations, transportation ticketing, packaged tours, and corporate travel management services. It operates a portfolio of brands including Trip.com, Ctrip, Skyscanner, and Qunar. The company was founded in June 1999 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Trip.com Group (9961 HK)

Hang Seng Indexes: Changes Lead to US$6.6bn Trade; Plus Stock Connect & Global Index Inclusions

There are a number of constituent, float and capping changes for the Hang Seng family, leading to a US$6.6bn trade. Stock Connect additions, lock...

Brian Freitas

Bank Of China (3988 HK) Tactical Outlook: Passive Selling Still Early Ahead of May Rebalance

Bank Of China (3988 HK) faces forced passive selling due to a global index provider rebalance in May. Our model shows the real move hasn't started...

Nico Rosti

Global Index Float Methodology Change: HK Stocks with Big Passive Sells

A lot of the stocks with expected passive outflows have underperformed the indices over the last couple of weeks. We would look to unwind trades in...

Brian Freitas

Asia Equities: Model Portfolio Changes - More to Chinese EV Supply Chain, Less to AI Losers

Our AxJ Model Portfolio outperformed MXASJ, driven by KR & TW tech, KR defense, industrials. We now exclude Tencent Music, Xiaomi, add CNOOC,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

MS-China Index Earning Revision (Feb): ALIBABA, TENCENT, PDD

We analyzed MS-China's consensus for Feb 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in ALIBABA (9988 HK), TENCENT (700 HK), PDD Holdings (PDD US).

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Hang Seng Indexes: Changes Lead to US$6.6bn Trade; Plus Stock Connect & Global Index Inclusions

There are a number of constituent, float and capping changes for the Hang Seng family, leading to a US$6.6bn trade. Stock Connect additions, lock...

Brian Freitas

Bank Of China (3988 HK) Tactical Outlook: Passive Selling Still Early Ahead of May Rebalance

Bank Of China (3988 HK) faces forced passive selling due to a global index provider rebalance in May. Our model shows the real move hasn't started...

Nico Rosti

Global Index Float Methodology Change: HK Stocks with Big Passive Sells

A lot of the stocks with expected passive outflows have underperformed the indices over the last couple of weeks. We would look to unwind trades in...

Brian Freitas

Asia Equities: Model Portfolio Changes - More to Chinese EV Supply Chain, Less to AI Losers

​Our AxJ Model Portfolio outperformed MXASJ, driven by KR & TW tech, KR defense, industrials. We now exclude Tencent Music, Xiaomi, add CNOOC,...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

MS-China Index Earning Revision (Feb): ALIBABA, TENCENT, PDD

We analyzed MS-China's consensus for Feb 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in ALIBABA (9988 HK), TENCENT (700 HK), PDD Holdings (PDD US).

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Our AxJ Model Portfolio outperformed MXASJ, driven by KR & TW tech, KR defense, industrials. We now exclude Tencent Music, Xiaomi, add CNOOC,...