Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The pace of Trip.com's Net Revenue growth picked up in Q425, to just under 21% Y/Y</li>
<li>But OpInc and Adjusted EBITDA margins continued to decline in the period</li>
<li>Poor cost control, weight of ongoing investigation prompt us to AVOID the shares</li>
</ul>


The pace of Trip.com's Net Revenue growth picked up in Q425, to just under 21% Y/Y
But OpInc and Adjusted EBITDA margins continued to decline in the period
Poor cost control, weight of ongoing investigation prompt us to AVOID the shares


Trip.com Q425 Results | Strong Top-Line Growth, But Margin Compression Continues | AVOID

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>'s FY25 profit warning indicated its overall loss and loss for the Core Local Commerce segment have narrowed sequentially in 4Q25.   </li>
<li>While it will remain in the red in 1Q26, the government's anti-involution benefits will filter through in the next few quarters, underpinning a return to profit. </li>
<li>Its FY27 PER of 14.1x is inexpensive relative to bigger peers. With a projected ROE of 18.5%, its P/B multiple of 3.2x is also not expensive. </li>
</ul>



Meituan (3690 HK)'s FY25 profit warning indicated its overall loss and loss for the Core Local Commerce segment have narrowed sequentially in 4Q25.   
While it will remain in the red in 1Q26, the government's anti-involution benefits will filter through in the next few quarters, underpinning a return to profit. 
Its FY27 PER of 14.1x is inexpensive relative to bigger peers. With a projected ROE of 18.5%, its P/B multiple of 3.2x is also not expensive. 


2026 High Conviction Update: Meituan (3690 HK) - Clearer Skies

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Feb 6th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Zto Express, HSBC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Techtronic.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Feb 6th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Zto Express, HSBC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Techtronic.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Zto Express, HSBC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Techtronic

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>As expected, there are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> in March. However, there are float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.6% leading to a round-trip trade of HK$18.15bn (US$2.3bn). Most stocks will have same-way flows from passive trackers of other indices in the Hang Seng family.</li>
<li>Short interest is elevated in some of the stocks with large flows and shorts could be active in the stocks over the next couple of weeks.</li>
</ul>


As expected, there are no constituent changes for the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in March. However, there are float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.6% leading to a round-trip trade of HK$18.15bn (US$2.3bn). Most stocks will have same-way flows from passive trackers of other indices in the Hang Seng family.
Short interest is elevated in some of the stocks with large flows and shorts could be active in the stocks over the next couple of weeks.


HSTECH Index Rebalance: No Constituent Changes; Float/Capping Changes Lead to US$2.3bn Trade

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 30th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.</li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Alibaba (9988 HK), AIA (2318 HK), Sinopec (386 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 30th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
We highlight short changes in Alibaba (9988 HK), AIA (2318 HK), Sinopec (386 HK).


HK Short Interest Weekly: Alibaba, AIA, Sinopec, CATL

Singapore

Trip.com Group is a leading global one-stop travel platform offering accommodation reservations, transportation ticketing, packaged tours, and corporate travel management services. It operates a portfolio of brands including Trip.com, Ctrip, Skyscanner, and Qunar. The company was founded in June 1999 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Trip.com Group (9961 HK)

Trip.com Q425 Results | Strong Top-Line Growth, But Margin Compression Continues | AVOID

Top-line growth accelerated in Q425, but margin compression persisted. Management's poor cost control is frustrating, and an ongoing investigation...

Tracking Traffic

2026 High Conviction Update: Meituan (3690 HK) - Clearer Skies

Meituan's profit warning shows narrowing overall and Core Local Commerce losses in 4Q25, with potential return to profit in FY26 due to government...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Short Interest Weekly: Zto Express, HSBC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Techtronic

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Feb 6th and highlight short interest changes in Zto Express, HSBC, Hua Hong...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSTECH Index Rebalance: No Constituent Changes; Float/Capping Changes Lead to US$2.3bn Trade

There are no constituent changes but float and capping changes result in one-way turnover of 2.6% and a round-trip trade of US$2.3bn. Shorts are...

Brian Freitas

HK Short Interest Weekly: Alibaba, AIA, Sinopec, CATL

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 30th and highlight short interest changes in Alibaba, AIA, Sinopec, CATL.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Trip.com Q425 Results | Strong Top-Line Growth, But Margin Compression Continues | AVOID

Top-line growth accelerated in Q425, but margin compression persisted. Management's poor cost control is frustrating, and an ongoing investigation...

Tracking Traffic

2026 High Conviction Update: Meituan (3690 HK) - Clearer Skies

​Meituan's profit warning shows narrowing overall and Core Local Commerce losses in 4Q25, with potential return to profit in FY26 due to government...

Osbert Tang, CFA

HK Short Interest Weekly: Zto Express, HSBC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Techtronic

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Feb 6th and highlight short interest changes in Zto Express, HSBC, Hua Hong...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HSTECH Index Rebalance: No Constituent Changes; Float/Capping Changes Lead to US$2.3bn Trade

There are no constituent changes but float and capping changes result in one-way turnover of 2.6% and a round-trip trade of US$2.3bn. Shorts are...

Brian Freitas

HK Short Interest Weekly: Alibaba, AIA, Sinopec, CATL

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 30th and highlight short interest changes in Alibaba, AIA, Sinopec, CATL.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Meituan's profit warning shows narrowing overall and Core Local Commerce losses in 4Q25, with potential return to profit in FY26 due to government...