Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Combined January-February activity indicates demand growth continues to slow down</li>
<li>Similarly, capacity restoration &amp; load factors on outbound flights appear to have stagnated </li>
<li>We expect shares of Chinese airlines to continue to outperform travel platform Trip.com</li>
</ul>


Combined January-February activity indicates demand growth continues to slow down
Similarly, capacity restoration &amp; load factors on outbound flights appear to have stagnated 
We expect shares of Chinese airlines to continue to outperform travel platform Trip.com


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Growth of Travel Demand Slowed in January-February (March 2025)

<ul>
<li>Late January timing of LNY holiday boosted last month's travel and tourism statistics</li>
<li>Chinese airlines are filling outbound flights, which should lift pricing &amp; margins (eventually)</li>
<li>Numbers suggest Chinese consumers eager to travel, but spending remains muted</li>
</ul>


Late January timing of LNY holiday boosted last month's travel and tourism statistics
Chinese airlines are filling outbound flights, which should lift pricing &amp; margins (eventually)
Numbers suggest Chinese consumers eager to travel, but spending remains muted


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | LNY Numbers Just OK | Airlines Filling Up | (February 2025)

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Most Western media viewed Xi's weekend handshake with Ma in the meeting with business leaders over the weekend as historical reconciliation. We believe it dangerously missed the mark; </li>
<li>Watch Jiang Fan...His next move to revitalize Taobao/Tmall could mean headwinds to Pinduoduo and JD.com. Taobao/Tmall performed well during CNY;</li>
<li>Alibaba's Apple grab shows its unique ecosystem position in the US-China macrocosm. JD's entry to O2O showed it needed a new growth driver post 2025. </li>
</ul>


Most Western media viewed Xi's weekend handshake with Ma in the meeting with business leaders over the weekend as historical reconciliation. We believe it dangerously missed the mark; 
Watch Jiang Fan...His next move to revitalize Taobao/Tmall could mean headwinds to Pinduoduo and JD.com. Taobao/Tmall performed well during CNY;
Alibaba's Apple grab shows its unique ecosystem position in the US-China macrocosm. JD's entry to O2O showed it needed a new growth driver post 2025. 


[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 7/52]: Xi's Meeting with Ma Went Way Beyond Just Reconciliation

Andy Fu

<ul>
<li>2025's Chinese New Year (CNY)  closed with a bang. Home appliances, mobile phones and general merchandises were robust.  Catering saw steady growth and box office hit a record high;</li>
<li>Domestic travel was vibrant. So was inbound overseas travel. But outbound overseas travel was in the doldrums on several unfavorable incidents involving kidnapping in Thailand and flu in Japan; </li>
<li>We predict a 65% chance of a housing resurrection post CNY.  We observe an improvement in consumer sentiment as life gradually returning to normal. </li>
</ul>


2025's Chinese New Year (CNY)  closed with a bang. Home appliances, mobile phones and general merchandises were robust.  Catering saw steady growth and box office hit a record high;
Domestic travel was vibrant. So was inbound overseas travel. But outbound overseas travel was in the doldrums on several unfavorable incidents involving kidnapping in Thailand and flu in Japan; 
We predict a 65% chance of a housing resurrection post CNY.  We observe an improvement in consumer sentiment as life gradually returning to normal. 


2025's Chinese New Year Consumption Tiltering Towards the Positive

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>India Real Estate, South Korea Financials and Turkey Financials see big increases in ownership in 2024.</li>
<li>South Korea Materials, China Technology and China Health Care saw investment levels decline.</li>
<li>Sk Hynix saw the largest increase in fund ownership, but which stocks saw large decreases, and which look set for a promising 2025?</li>
</ul>


India Real Estate, South Korea Financials and Turkey Financials see big increases in ownership in 2024.
South Korea Materials, China Technology and China Health Care saw investment levels decline.
Sk Hynix saw the largest increase in fund ownership, but which stocks saw large decreases, and which look set for a promising 2025?


GEM Fund Positioning: The Big Rotations in 2024.

China

Trip.com Group Ltd. provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
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Trip.com (TCOM US)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Growth of Travel Demand Slowed in January-February (March 2025)

The growth of Chinese travel demand appeared to slow in the first two months of 2025. We believe the Chinese airlines can continue to outperform...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | LNY Numbers Just OK | Airlines Filling Up | (February 2025)

January and Lunar New Year travel activity data seem OK, but not spectacular. Chinese tourists seem eager to travel, but there are few signs they...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 7/52]: Xi's Meeting with Ma Went Way Beyond Just Reconciliation

Western media praised Xi's handshake with Ma as historic, but missed the mark. Alibaba's moves could impact Pinduoduo and JD.com, highlighting its...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

2025's Chinese New Year Consumption Tiltering Towards the Positive

China's spring festival goods consumption sees solid growth and domestic tourism service thrives. Consumer sentiment increases slightly but income...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

GEM Fund Positioning: The Big Rotations in 2024.

India Real Estate, South Korea and Turkey Financials were the winners in 2024, but which sectors led the declines, and which stocks saw the...

Steven Holden

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Growth of Travel Demand Slowed in January-February (March 2025)

The growth of Chinese travel demand appeared to slow in the first two months of 2025. We believe the Chinese airlines can continue to outperform...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | LNY Numbers Just OK | Airlines Filling Up | (February 2025)

January and Lunar New Year travel activity data seem OK, but not spectacular. Chinese tourists seem eager to travel, but there are few signs they...

Tracking Traffic

[Blue Lotus Non-US Internet Weekly, 7/52]: Xi's Meeting with Ma Went Way Beyond Just Reconciliation

​Western media praised Xi's handshake with Ma as historic, but missed the mark. Alibaba's moves could impact Pinduoduo and JD.com, highlighting its...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

2025's Chinese New Year Consumption Tiltering Towards the Positive

​China's spring festival goods consumption sees solid growth and domestic tourism service thrives. Consumer sentiment increases slightly but income...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

GEM Fund Positioning: The Big Rotations in 2024.

​India Real Estate, South Korea and Turkey Financials were the winners in 2024, but which sectors led the declines, and which stocks saw the...

Steven Holden

Western media praised Xi's handshake with Ma as historic, but missed the mark. Alibaba's moves could impact Pinduoduo and JD.com, highlighting its...

China's spring festival goods consumption sees solid growth and domestic tourism service thrives. Consumer sentiment increases slightly but income...

India Real Estate, South Korea and Turkey Financials were the winners in 2024, but which sectors led the declines, and which stocks saw the...