Founder, Riedel Research

David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

Riedel Research

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

A surprisingly poor employment report in the US became the central focus among investors across the globe on Friday. In May the US added just 38,000 jobs, well under the expected 156,000.A poor jobs report has triggered widespread concerns that a weak external environment is starting to feed through to infect the US economy. These concerns reflect the risk of what we define as a ‘bad de-polarization’ playing out in the global economy.Currently the global economy is extremely polarized (there is a large divergence between the health of the worlds strongest and weakest economies). As the global economy de-polarizes the health of the weakest economies will rise to converge with that of the strongest economies (a good de-polarization) or vice versa.

A surprisingly poor employment report in the US became the central focus among investors across the globe on Friday. In May the US added just 38,000 jobs, well under the expected 156,000.A poor jobs report has triggered widespread concerns that a weak external environment is starting to feed through to infect the US economy. These concerns reflect the risk of what we define as a ‘bad de-polarization’ playing out in the global economy.Currently the global economy is extremely polarized (there is a large divergence between the health of the worlds strongest and weakest economies). As the global economy de-polarizes the health of the weakest economies will rise to converge with that of the strongest economies (a good de-polarization) or vice versa.

Bad Jobs Report Good For Some EMs, Great For Others

CSI Deteriorates in May On Policy Uncertainty <ul>
<li>In May the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a level of 114.2, below the key threshold of 116 separating rationally pessimistic consumers from panicking consumers. </li>
<li>
Deterioration in the CSI during May stems from growing uncertainty over the future path of China’s monetary policy. As the urgent need for deleveraging has become apparent a mysterious article published by an anonymous 'authoritative figure' in the People's Daily…</li>
</ul>

CSI Deteriorates in May On Policy Uncertainty 
In May the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a level of 114.2, below the key threshold of 116 separating rationally pessimistic consumers from panicking consumers. 

Deterioration in the CSI during May stems from growing uncertainty over the future path of China’s monetary policy. As the urgent need for deleveraging has become apparent a mysterious article published by an anonymous 'authoritative figure' in the People's Daily…


China Consumer Sentiment Snapshot - Urgent Need for Deleveraging Becomes Apparent

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Equity Bottom-Up

Over the last several years, strong travel demand from China’s urban middle class and the rapid adoption of mobile broadband have led to impressive revenue growth for China’s online travel agencies (OTAs) and other Internet-based travel intermediaries.This growth has in turn attracted a disproportionate share of the capital flowing into China’s travel and tourism segment, and the listed OTAs have handily outperformed actual providers of travel services, such as airlines and hotels.However, the growth of OTAs in China is set to slow due to intensifying competition and rising marketing costs.With jet fuel costs moderating, and aggressive efforts underway to squeeze travel intermediaries, Chinese airlines are now better proxies for Chinese travel demand. BUY <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8239" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239">Air China Ltd H</a> , SHORT <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/180" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180">Ctrip.Com International Adr</a> .

Over the last several years, strong travel demand from China’s urban middle class and the rapid adoption of mobile broadband have led to impressive revenue growth for China’s online travel agencies (OTAs) and other Internet-based travel intermediaries.This growth has in turn attracted a disproportionate share of the capital flowing into China’s travel and tourism segment, and the listed OTAs have handily outperformed actual providers of travel services, such as airlines and hotels.However, the growth of OTAs in China is set to slow due to intensifying competition and rising marketing costs.With jet fuel costs moderating, and aggressive efforts underway to squeeze travel intermediaries, Chinese airlines are now better proxies for Chinese travel demand. BUY Air China Ltd H , SHORT Ctrip.Com International Adr .

Ctrip.com Vulnerable as Travel Service Providers Increasingly Go Direct

Co-founder & Managing Director, Marketnomix 

Rajan Govil

Co-founder & Managing Director

Marketnomix 

Macroeconomics

Progressively weaker data from China is likely to increase expectations of further depreciation of the RMB, while a continued decline in FX reserves and resulting lower liquidity in the system will add to further stress in the economy.China’s data releases of late have broadly continued to trend lower, with slower growth not just seen in industrial production, but also in loan growth as well as fixed asset investment. It is the renewed slowdown in these two data releases after a period of…

Progressively weaker data from China is likely to increase expectations of further depreciation of the RMB, while a continued decline in FX reserves and resulting lower liquidity in the system will add to further stress in the economy.China’s data releases of late have broadly continued to trend lower, with slower growth not just seen in industrial production, but also in loan growth as well as fixed asset investment. It is the renewed slowdown in these two data releases after a period of…

China: Renewed Concerns About Extent of Slowdown

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Despite the promise of online retailing and its rapid growth, there are worrying signs that point to either a coming slowdown, data discrepancies, or unsustainable shifts in consumer behavior.  Though it is too soon to say for sure, what is happening, the warning signs are there.

Despite the promise of online retailing and its rapid growth, there are worrying signs that point to either a coming slowdown, data discrepancies, or unsustainable shifts in consumer behavior.  Though it is too soon to say for sure, what is happening, the warning signs are there.

China

Trip.com Group Ltd. provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services.

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Trip.com (TCOM US)

Bad Jobs Report Good For Some EMs, Great For Others

A surprisingly poor employment report in the US became the central focus among investors across the globe on Friday. In May the US added just...

David Riedel

China Consumer Sentiment Snapshot - Urgent Need for Deleveraging Becomes Apparent

CSI Deteriorates in May On Policy Uncertainty In May the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a level of 114.2, below the key...

David Riedel

Ctrip.com Vulnerable as Travel Service Providers Increasingly Go Direct

Over the last several years, strong travel demand from China’s urban middle class and the rapid adoption of mobile broadband have led to impressive...

Daniel Hellberg

China: Renewed Concerns About Extent of Slowdown

Progressively weaker data from China is likely to increase expectations of further depreciation of the RMB, while a continued decline in FX...

Rajan Govil

The State of Online Retailing in China

Despite the promise of online retailing and its rapid growth, there are worrying signs that point to either a coming slowdown, data discrepancies,...

Christopher Balding

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