A Value Investing Journal, Acid Investments

Acid Investments

A Value Investing Journal

I love stonks and I love rambling. Sometimes, I feel it unfair to subject those around me with the inundation of my thoughts, so I tweet and I spill ink on here. Jokes aside, I love investing and edgy ideas; I hope to become a better investor and this is my journal to that end. I will be sharing value/special situations I come across organically or through other blogs/13F and I hope to provide a variant analytical view to said situations. I hope to receive constructive feedback and let’s grab some of dem benjamins together!

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>This will be another quick idea flag and different from the typical cheapish-catalyst type situations I have often written about.</li><li>This is a superb business that I’ve been monitoring for awhile that just saw some nasty correction.</li><li>I’ve been tweeting incessantly about this business, and shares finally collapsed yesterday despite a relatively good earnings report.</li></ul>

This will be another quick idea flag and different from the typical cheapish-catalyst type situations I have often written about.This is a superb business that I’ve been monitoring for awhile that just saw some nasty correction.I’ve been tweeting incessantly about this business, and shares finally collapsed yesterday despite a relatively good earnings report.

Trip.com (TCOM) - Worth a Little More than EXPE or Much More?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Trip.com Group (TCOM) announced (21 Nov) 3Q23 results: net revenue was RMB13.7bn, up 99% YoY, in line with both our forecast and Bloomberg consensus expectation, and was 31% higher than 3Q19 level.</li><li>Non-GAAP operating income (OP) was RMB4.4bn, 6% better than our forecast, thanks to a better-than-expected GPM driven by better-than-expected operating leverage, and more efficient-than-expected sales and marketing spend.</li><li>Recovery of outbound travel business on QTD basis in 4Q23 is slightly slower than our previous expectation owing to the slower-than-expected recovery in international flights in the short term, while TCOM’s outbound travel business is on track to see full recovery in 2024 given that consumer demand remains healthy. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Trip.com Group (TCOM) announced (21 Nov) 3Q23 results: net revenue was RMB13.7bn, up 99% YoY, in line with both our forecast and Bloomberg consensus expectation, and was 31% higher than 3Q19 level.Non-GAAP operating income (OP) was RMB4.4bn, 6% better than our forecast, thanks to a better-than-expected GPM driven by better-than-expected operating leverage, and more efficient-than-expected sales and marketing spend.Recovery of outbound travel business on QTD basis in 4Q23 is slightly slower than our previous expectation owing to the slower-than-expected recovery in international flights in the short term, while TCOM’s outbound travel business is on track to see full recovery in 2024 given that consumer demand remains healthy. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Trip.com (TCOM US) – Release of Pent-Up Demand as Expected

<ul><li>Trip.com Group (TCOM) announced (8 June) 1Q23 results: net revenue was RMB9.2bn, up 124% YoY, 14% ahead of both our forecast and Bloomberg consensus estimates, and was 13% higher than 1Q19 level.</li><li>Non-GAAP net income was RMB2.1bn, better than our forecast/consensus estimate of RMB1.2/1.3bn, thanks to stronger-than-expected revenue growth and cost saving initiatives.</li><li>Management noted stronger and more sustainable than expected release of pent-up demand, and expected the robust recovery to sustain in 2Q-3Q23, aided by: 1) arrival of summer peak season; 2) recovery in supply of international flights; 3) its loyal middle to high income user base, as well as enhanced supply chain capabilities and partner relationship. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Trip.com Group (TCOM) announced (8 June) 1Q23 results: net revenue was RMB9.2bn, up 124% YoY, 14% ahead of both our forecast and Bloomberg consensus estimates, and was 13% higher than 1Q19 level.Non-GAAP net income was RMB2.1bn, better than our forecast/consensus estimate of RMB1.2/1.3bn, thanks to stronger-than-expected revenue growth and cost saving initiatives.Management noted stronger and more sustainable than expected release of pent-up demand, and expected the robust recovery to sustain in 2Q-3Q23, aided by: 1) arrival of summer peak season; 2) recovery in supply of international flights; 3) its loyal middle to high income user base, as well as enhanced supply chain capabilities and partner relationship. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Trip.com (TCOM US) – Strong Recovery to Sustain in 2Q23

<ul><li>Trip.com Group (TCOM) announced 4Q22 results on 7 Mar: net revenue was RMB5.0bn, up 7% YoY, 3/4% ahead of our/Bloomberg consensus estimates, and was 60% of the 4Q19 level.</li><li>Non-GAAP net income was RMB498mn, better than our forecast/consensus estimate of loss at RMB140/152mn, thanks to betterthan-expected cost saving.</li><li>Recovery in both domestic and outbound travel in 1Q23 was better than our expectation, aided by the release of pent-up demand, especially for business travel. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Trip.com Group (TCOM) announced 4Q22 results on 7 Mar: net revenue was RMB5.0bn, up 7% YoY, 3/4% ahead of our/Bloomberg consensus estimates, and was 60% of the 4Q19 level.Non-GAAP net income was RMB498mn, better than our forecast/consensus estimate of loss at RMB140/152mn, thanks to betterthan-expected cost saving.Recovery in both domestic and outbound travel in 1Q23 was better than our expectation, aided by the release of pent-up demand, especially for business travel. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Trip.com (TCOM US) – Pent-up demand boosts revenue recovery

<ul><li>Trip.com Group (TCOM) announced (15 Dec) 3Q22 results: net revenue was RMB6.9bn, up 29.0% YoY, 5/6% ahead of our/Bloomberg consensus estimates, and was 66% of the 3Q19 level.</li><li>Non-GAAP net income was RMB1.0bn, better than our forecast/consensus estimate at RMB742/ 830mn, owning to betterthan-expected revenue recovery in domestic market.</li><li>Although pandemic resurgence brought disruption to TCOM’s business recovery in 4Q22, overall business recovery from 2023 onward has greater visibility as pandemic prevention policy has been relaxing.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Trip.com Group (TCOM) announced (15 Dec) 3Q22 results: net revenue was RMB6.9bn, up 29.0% YoY, 5/6% ahead of our/Bloomberg consensus estimates, and was 66% of the 3Q19 level.Non-GAAP net income was RMB1.0bn, better than our forecast/consensus estimate at RMB742/ 830mn, owning to betterthan-expected revenue recovery in domestic market.Although pandemic resurgence brought disruption to TCOM’s business recovery in 4Q22, overall business recovery from 2023 onward has greater visibility as pandemic prevention policy has been relaxing.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Trip.com (TCOM US) – Business recovery has greater visibility

China

Trip.com Group Ltd. provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services.

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Trip.com (TCOM US)

Trip.com (TCOM) - Worth a Little More than EXPE or Much More?

This will be another quick idea flag and different from the typical cheapish-catalyst type situations I have often written about.

Acid Investments

Trip.com (TCOM US) – Release of Pent-Up Demand as Expected

Trip.com Group (TCOM) announced (21 Nov) 3Q23 results: net revenue was RMB13.7bn, up 99% YoY, in line with both our forecast and Bloomberg...

CMB International

Trip.com (TCOM US) – Strong Recovery to Sustain in 2Q23

Non-GAAP net income was RMB2.1bn, better than our forecast/consensus estimate of RMB1.2/1.3bn, thanks to stronger-than-expected revenue growth and...

CMB International

Trip.com (TCOM US) – Pent-up demand boosts revenue recovery

Trip.com Group (TCOM) announced 4Q22 results on 7 Mar: net revenue was RMB5.0bn, up 7% YoY, 3/4% ahead of our/Bloomberg consensus estimates, and...

CMB International

Trip.com (TCOM US) – Business recovery has greater visibility

Trip.com Group (TCOM) announced (15 Dec) 3Q22 results: net revenue was RMB6.9bn, up 29.0% YoY, 5/6% ahead of our/Bloomberg consensus estimates, and...

CMB International

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