Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Revenue growth in Q3 (+15.5% Y/Y) held up reasonably well for Trip.com</li>
<li>But core margins continue to deteriorate: Adjusted EBITDA margin down -120 bps Y/Y</li>
<li>We still feel TCOM shares are pricey, and that earnings growth is unimpressive</li>
</ul>


Revenue growth in Q3 (+15.5% Y/Y) held up reasonably well for Trip.com
But core margins continue to deteriorate: Adjusted EBITDA margin down -120 bps Y/Y
We still feel TCOM shares are pricey, and that earnings growth is unimpressive


Trip.com Q325 Results | Revenue Growth OK | Core Margins Still Falling | Avoid

<ul>
<li>Growth rates of outbound and domestic air travel slowed again in September</li>
<li>Initial read on Golden Week demand: weak activity growth, weaker spending</li>
<li>In our view, it's increasingly difficult to retain an upbeat view of the sector</li>
</ul>


Growth rates of outbound and domestic air travel slowed again in September
Initial read on Golden Week demand: weak activity growth, weaker spending
In our view, it's increasingly difficult to retain an upbeat view of the sector


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Pace of Growth Slowed, Again | Golden Week? | October 2025

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>China is again finding favour among investors but investment in Chinese equities has to be nuanced and calibrated. Even high growth and policy beneficiary sectors have underperformed lately.</li>
<li>Avoiding the victims of involution, selecting market leaders who can protect their margins and companies with overseas manufacturing bases who can protect their foreign margins seem a viable strategy.</li>
<li>Latest consumption trends indicate strength in communication equipment, gold and silver jewelry, beverages and cosmetics. Precautionary buying of precious metals indicates that high dividend yield stocks could do well too.</li>
</ul>


China is again finding favour among investors but investment in Chinese equities has to be nuanced and calibrated. Even high growth and policy beneficiary sectors have underperformed lately.
Avoiding the victims of involution, selecting market leaders who can protect their margins and companies with overseas manufacturing bases who can protect their foreign margins seem a viable strategy.
Latest consumption trends indicate strength in communication equipment, gold and silver jewelry, beverages and cosmetics. Precautionary buying of precious metals indicates that high dividend yield stocks could do well too.


Asian Equities: Investing in China Necessitates a Careful and Calibrated Approach

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

<ul><li>TOP STORIES In Depth: China Looks to ‘Experience Economy’ for a Consumption Lift Chinese travelers are no longer content to simply admire scenic views — they want an experience.</li><li>The shift was evident during the Lunar New Year holiday in February.</li><li>Keyword searches for “intangible cultural heritage” and “folk customs” on e-commerce platform Meituan jumped 34% and 30% year-on-year.</li></ul>

TOP STORIES In Depth: China Looks to ‘Experience Economy’ for a Consumption Lift Chinese travelers are no longer content to simply admire scenic views — they want an experience.The shift was evident during the Lunar New Year holiday in February.Keyword searches for “intangible cultural heritage” and “folk customs” on e-commerce platform Meituan jumped 34% and 30% year-on-year.

CX Daily: China Looks to ‘Experience Economy’ for a Consumption Lift 

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

<ul>
<li>The materials, healthcare, and tech sectors are leading the Hong Kong market out of its consolidation pattern, with January shaping up to be one of the best in years.</li>
<li>China and Hong Kong ETF flows were the strongest in Asia during 2025 posting significant inflows throughout the year although Korea had the most significant increase at 600%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a> share price plunged after it announced an investigation into its monopolistic business practices. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK)</a> shares jumped after the founder returned as CEO.
</li>
</ul>


The materials, healthcare, and tech sectors are leading the Hong Kong market out of its consolidation pattern, with January shaping up to be one of the best in years.
China and Hong Kong ETF flows were the strongest in Asia during 2025 posting significant inflows throughout the year although Korea had the most significant increase at 600%.

Trip.com Group (9961 HK) share price plunged after it announced an investigation into its monopolistic business practices. Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK) shares jumped after the founder returned as CEO.



The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (January 14)

China

Trip.com Group Ltd. provides online travel agency services. The Company offers mobile applications, hotel reservations, flight ticketing, package tours, corporate travel management, and train ticketing services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Trip.com (TCOM US)

Trip.com Q325 Results | Revenue Growth OK | Core Margins Still Falling | Avoid

Trip.com reported Q3 results on Monday after the US close. Revenue growth was fine, but core margins continue to fall. We view the shares as...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Pace of Growth Slowed, Again | Golden Week? | October 2025

Chinese travel activity in September slowed, and a first look at Golden Week activity also suggests weak growth in travel and spending. We see few...

Tracking Traffic

Asian Equities: Investing in China Necessitates a Careful and Calibrated Approach

Investing in CN equity needs a nuanced approach, focusing on market leaders who can protect margins during "involution" & companies with foreign...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

CX Daily: China Looks to ‘Experience Economy’ for a Consumption Lift

TOP STORIES In Depth: China Looks to ‘Experience Economy’ for a Consumption Lift Chinese travelers are no longer content to simply admire scenic...

Caixin Global

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (January 14)

Trip.com Group (9961 HK) price plunged after it announced an investigation into its monopolistic business practices. Haidilao International Holding...

David Mudd

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Trip.com Q325 Results | Revenue Growth OK | Core Margins Still Falling | Avoid

Trip.com reported Q3 results on Monday after the US close. Revenue growth was fine, but core margins continue to fall. We view the shares as...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Pace of Growth Slowed, Again | Golden Week? | October 2025

Chinese travel activity in September slowed, and a first look at Golden Week activity also suggests weak growth in travel and spending. We see few...

Tracking Traffic

Asian Equities: Investing in China Necessitates a Careful and Calibrated Approach

​Investing in CN equity needs a nuanced approach, focusing on market leaders who can protect margins during "involution" & companies with foreign...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

CX Daily: China Looks to ‘Experience Economy’ for a Consumption Lift

TOP STORIES In Depth: China Looks to ‘Experience Economy’ for a Consumption Lift Chinese travelers are no longer content to simply admire scenic...

Caixin Global

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (January 14)

Trip.com Group (9961 HK) price plunged after it announced an investigation into its monopolistic business practices. Haidilao International Holding...

David Mudd

Investing in CN equity needs a nuanced approach, focusing on market leaders who can protect margins during "involution" & companies with foreign...