Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>FIIs sold US$23.5bn Asian equity in September and US$9.4bn till 8th October. September's selling was primarily in Korea (US$16.9bn), India (US$3.75bn), Taiwan (US$1.3bn). Thailand (US$793m), Indonesia (US$577m), Philippines (US$135m) too.</li>
<li>In early October there's an acceleration in FII exodus from India (sold US$4.6bn). The pace of selling in Korea remains unaltered (sold US$4.7bn). Taiwan was bought in small measure (US$28m).</li>
<li>Among North Asian tech titans, FIIs clearly prefer Taiwan over Korea. If US yields spike further, we'd be cautious about India, Indonesia, Philippines. Korea could continue to get sold too.</li>
</ul>


FIIs sold US$23.5bn Asian equity in September and US$9.4bn till 8th October. September's selling was primarily in Korea (US$16.9bn), India (US$3.75bn), Taiwan (US$1.3bn). Thailand (US$793m), Indonesia (US$577m), Philippines (US$135m) too.
In early October there's an acceleration in FII exodus from India (sold US$4.6bn). The pace of selling in Korea remains unaltered (sold US$4.7bn). Taiwan was bought in small measure (US$28m).
Among North Asian tech titans, FIIs clearly prefer Taiwan over Korea. If US yields spike further, we'd be cautious about India, Indonesia, Philippines. Korea could continue to get sold too.


Asian Equities: Ferocious Foreign Selling in September and Early October; Only Taiwan Seems Immune

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Anthropic launched Claude Haiku 5.5 at up to 90% lower prices, Reflection AI unveiled its Beam open-weight model, and OpenAI's annualized revenue was below recent estimates.</li>
<li>OpenAI rolled GPT-6 out across ChatGPT, AWS added Zhipu's GLM-5.3 to Bedrock, TSMC's third-quarter revenue rose 50.9% YoY and Samsung guided record operating profit.</li>
<li>DeepSeek neared USD 12bn of new funding, Moonshot closed at about USD 50bn, Firmus withdrew its ASX IPO and SpaceX sought about USD 40bn of debt for Nvidia chips.</li>
</ul>


Anthropic launched Claude Haiku 5.5 at up to 90% lower prices, Reflection AI unveiled its Beam open-weight model, and OpenAI's annualized revenue was below recent estimates.
OpenAI rolled GPT-6 out across ChatGPT, AWS added Zhipu's GLM-5.3 to Bedrock, TSMC's third-quarter revenue rose 50.9% YoY and Samsung guided record operating profit.
DeepSeek neared USD 12bn of new funding, Moonshot closed at about USD 50bn, Firmus withdrew its ASX IPO and SpaceX sought about USD 40bn of debt for Nvidia chips.


This Week in AI (Oct 4-10): Haiku 5.5's Throat-Cutting Prices; OpenAI Revenue Trails Expectation

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Derivatives

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT)</a> closed the week up at 2,475. The stock has been flattening in the last few weeks, since the end of June, capped below 2,500.</li>
<li>Recent news indicates TSMC is raising advanced process node prices by up to 6% due to constrained foundry capacity extending through 2030. Scheduled to take effect starting January 1, 2027.</li>
<li>Sentiment remains highly bullish, driven by persistent AI demand, 1-year price analysts targets sit at ~TWD 3,175-3,224 (implying significant upside), with top-end estimates up to TWD 4,200. </li>
</ul>



TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (2330 TT) closed the week up at 2,475. The stock has been flattening in the last few weeks, since the end of June, capped below 2,500.
Recent news indicates TSMC is raising advanced process node prices by up to 6% due to constrained foundry capacity extending through 2030. Scheduled to take effect starting January 1, 2027.
Sentiment remains highly bullish, driven by persistent AI demand, 1-year price analysts targets sit at ~TWD 3,175-3,224 (implying significant upside), with top-end estimates up to TWD 4,200. 


TSMC (2330 TT) Tactical Outlook After 6% Foundry Wafer Price Increase Announcement

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nvidia reports/guides a better than expected 3Q/4Q23 sales, margin, and EPS on stronger AI GPU sales growth of nearly 3x.</li>
<li>Nvidia reports a healthy 3.04 MOI, down 5% q/q and down 37% y/y and contributes nicely to account for 9% of TSMC sales.</li>
<li>In spite of concerns on good news priced in, seasonal weaker 1Q24, and MI300X/ASIC alternative AI solutions, we expect more raise to come in 2024-2025E.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia reports/guides a better than expected 3Q/4Q23 sales, margin, and EPS on stronger AI GPU sales growth of nearly 3x.
Nvidia reports a healthy 3.04 MOI, down 5% q/q and down 37% y/y and contributes nicely to account for 9% of TSMC sales.
In spite of concerns on good news priced in, seasonal weaker 1Q24, and MI300X/ASIC alternative AI solutions, we expect more raise to come in 2024-2025E.


As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass. There is no reason to be anything but bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $158-$159,...</li>
<li>...MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. (ACWX-US) is above $76.50, MSCI EAFE (EFA-US) is above its 6-month base at $105-$105.50, and MSCI EM (EEM-US) is above $63-$63.50.</li>
</ul>


Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass).
We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass. There is no reason to be anything but bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $158-$159,...
...MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. (ACWX-US) is above $76.50, MSCI EAFE (EFA-US) is above its 6-month base at $105-$105.50, and MSCI EM (EEM-US) is above $63-$63.50.


Opportunity in A.I. Names, Energy, and Materials; Bullish Outlook Intact as $ACWI Tests $158-$159

Taiwan

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) is a Taiwanese multinational semiconductor contract manufacturing and design company. It is the world's largest dedicated independent semiconductor foundry, specializing in manufacturing integrated circuits based on customer designs for various applications, including high-performance computing, smartphones, and automotive electronics. TSMC was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Hsinchu, Taiwan.

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSMC34 BR)

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TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSMC34 BR)

Asian Equities: Ferocious Foreign Selling in September and Early October; Only Taiwan Seems Immune

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TSMC (2330 TT) Tactical Outlook After 6% Foundry Wafer Price Increase Announcement

TSMC (2330 TT)'s rally has reached a possible inflection point. Our model flags a reversal risk: 1-2 week dip, tactical opportunity to buy at...

Nico Rosti

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably. However, investors see good news priced in in a...

Andrew Lu

Opportunity in A.I. Names, Energy, and Materials; Bullish Outlook Intact as $ACWI Tests $158-$159

Premarket Report: Opportunity in A.I. Names, Energy, and Materials; Bullish Outlook Intact as $ACWI Tests $158-$159. $SOXX $CHAT $DRAM

Vermilion Research

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