Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>But that all changed last week (4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments.</li>
<li>Despite the 90-day pause, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the S&amp;P 500 and ACWI-US are below their 200-day MAs.</li>
</ul>


Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
But that all changed last week (4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments.
Despite the 90-day pause, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the S&amp;P 500 and ACWI-US are below their 200-day MAs.


Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>If you don't think <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)</a>'s Standalone Plan has legs to go north of here, or ACT gets its act together,  then you should sell into strength.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a>'s cash and scrip (into a unlisted H-share-equivalent entity) Offer was not what the doctor ordered.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10803:1" rel="noopener">Sun Corp (6736 JP)</a> is cheap to its holding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellebrite-di-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37102:1" rel="noopener">Cellebrite DI (CLBT US)</a>. How cheap depends on the form and structure of its eventual exit.</li>
</ul>


If you don't think Seven &amp; I (3382 JP)'s Standalone Plan has legs to go north of here, or ACT gets its act together,  then you should sell into strength.

ENN Energy (2688 HK)'s cash and scrip (into a unlisted H-share-equivalent entity) Offer was not what the doctor ordered.

Sun Corp (6736 JP) is cheap to its holding in Cellebrite DI (CLBT US). How cheap depends on the form and structure of its eventual exit.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, ENN Energy, Sun Corp, Great Eastern Holdings

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 55 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Three news new deals discussed this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-road-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1" rel="noopener">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/enn-energy-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:316:1" rel="noopener">ENN Energy (2688 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sinarmas-land-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1144:1" rel="noopener">Sinarmas Land (SML SP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/domain-holdings-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26033:1" rel="noopener">Domain Holdings (DHG AU)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japfa-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15597:1" rel="noopener">Japfa Ltd (JAP SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paragon-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5994:1" rel="noopener">Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 55 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Three news new deals discussed this week: Gold Road Resources (GOR AU),ENN Energy (2688 HK), and Sinarmas Land (SML SP).
Key updates/news took place on: Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP), Domain Holdings (DHG AU),Japfa Ltd (JAP SP), Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP), and Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)/Welcia Holdings (3141 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Gold Fields, Sinarmas Land, Shinko Electric, Domain, Japfa, Tsuruha/Welcia

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/econavista-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39958:1" rel="noopener">EcoNaviSta (5585 JP)</a> has a couple of interesting product lines and platforms. That makes it attractive, and scalable. Synergies to a big buyer are reasonably obvious.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eisai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21001:1" rel="noopener">Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP)</a> is that big buyer, having decided to be interested last summer. I could imagine others could be interested too. The tech has uses.</li>
<li>For the moment, it is a high EV/Revenue bid on an interesting small company. The chairman, cross-holders, directors, and a couple of financial institutions own 66+%. But...</li>
</ul>



EcoNaviSta (5585 JP) has a couple of interesting product lines and platforms. That makes it attractive, and scalable. Synergies to a big buyer are reasonably obvious.

Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) is that big buyer, having decided to be interested last summer. I could imagine others could be interested too. The tech has uses.
For the moment, it is a high EV/Revenue bid on an interesting small company. The chairman, cross-holders, directors, and a couple of financial institutions own 66+%. But...


EcoNavista (5585 JP) - Takeover By Eisai (4523)

<ul>
<li>Bowing before bureaucratic, governmental, societal, and perhaps finally shareholder pressure, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a> Friday announced it is rolling up two big subsidiaries. </li>
<li>Aeon Mall will be merged with Aeon in a share exchange and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-delight-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16763:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Delight (9787 JP)</a> will be taken over via slightly long-dated Tender Offer which starts Monday.</li>
<li>This is probably the wrong price, but it isn't egregiously wrong I expect. And it would be difficult to block. I expect it gets done easily.</li>
</ul>


Bowing before bureaucratic, governmental, societal, and perhaps finally shareholder pressure, Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) Friday announced it is rolling up two big subsidiaries. 
Aeon Mall will be merged with Aeon in a share exchange and Aeon Delight (9787 JP) will be taken over via slightly long-dated Tender Offer which starts Monday.
This is probably the wrong price, but it isn't egregiously wrong I expect. And it would be difficult to block. I expect it gets done easily.


Aeon Tender Offer for Aeon Delight (9787) At ¥5,400/Share

Japan

TSURUHA HOLDINGS INC. is a holding company which manages subsidiaries that operate drug stores in Hokkaido and the Tohoku area.  The Company's product line includes drugs, cosmetics, and household utensils.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)

Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO $STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level; Watch for Resistance at $105-$117.69 on $ACWI. Buy...

Vermilion Research

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, ENN Energy, Sun Corp, Great Eastern Holdings

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Gold Fields, Sinarmas Land, Shinko Electric, Domain, Japfa, Tsuruha/Welcia

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

EcoNavista (5585 JP) - Takeover By Eisai (4523)

Eisai has announced a takeover of EcoNaviSta. This is probably worth a look to people who can trade tiny caps (US$100mm). There is a setup here...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO $STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level; Watch for Resistance at $105-$117.69 on $ACWI. Buy...

Vermilion Research

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I, ENN Energy, Sun Corp, Great Eastern Holdings

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Gold Fields, Sinarmas Land, Shinko Electric, Domain, Japfa, Tsuruha/Welcia

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

EcoNavista (5585 JP) - Takeover By Eisai (4523)

Eisai has announced a takeover of EcoNaviSta. This is probably worth a look to people who can trade tiny caps (US$100mm). There is a setup here...

Travis Lundy

Aeon Tender Offer for Aeon Delight (9787) At ¥5,400/Share

Aeon has announced a Tender Offer for facilities maintenance subsidiary Aeon Delight. It's an all-time high, but the TOB Premium on Aeon Delight is...

Travis Lundy