Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Feb 27th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD24,962m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Rakuten Bank, Lasertec, Disco, Kandenko, Toho, SoftBank, Advantest, Sanrio, Tokyo Electron, Create Restaurants.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Feb 27th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD24,962m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Rakuten Bank, Lasertec, Disco, Kandenko, Toho, SoftBank, Advantest, Sanrio, Tokyo Electron, Create Restaurants.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Feb 27th): Rakuten Bank, Lasertec, Disco, Kandenko, Toho, SoftBank

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This morning, Elliott made its case to interested investors, explaining much of its presentation and the possible choices investors face. TF's average buy price is &lt;¥18,000. Q3 BVPS likely ¥20k+.</li>
<li>But of course, realtime BVPS is higher, and transaction structure BVPS comes out near ¥24k. This is too cheap. Still. </li>
<li>Post-Close today, BidCo said "[The TOB Price] is the best possible price that reflects the intrinsic value of [TICO]". That tells me and many others, Bidco isn't the right buyer. </li>
</ul>


This morning, Elliott made its case to interested investors, explaining much of its presentation and the possible choices investors face. TF's average buy price is &lt;¥18,000. Q3 BVPS likely ¥20k+.
But of course, realtime BVPS is higher, and transaction structure BVPS comes out near ¥24k. This is too cheap. Still. 
Post-Close today, BidCo said "[The TOB Price] is the best possible price that reflects the intrinsic value of [TICO]". That tells me and many others, Bidco isn't the right buyer. 


[Japan M&A/Activism] Toyota RE Says No Bump for Toyota Inds (6201) Part III - Elliott Makes Its Case

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Japan in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Tokio Marine, Aeon, Itochu, Nippon Steel, Advantest, Rakuten, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Japan in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Tokio Marine, Aeon, Itochu, Nippon Steel, Advantest, Rakuten, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial.


MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (Jan): Tokio Marine, Aeon, Itochu, Nippon Steel, Advantest, Rakuten

David Blennerhassett

Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For January 2026, 6 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$8bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in January was ~42%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 were 49%, 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For January 2026, 6 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$8bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in January was ~42%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, and 2019 were 49%, 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


Asia-Pac M&A, Jan 2026 Wrap: Hisamitsu Pharma, IJM Corp, Sankei Real Estate, BioDlink, Skyworth

<ul>
<li>Kalon is unlikely to overbid KKR for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8353:1" rel="noopener">Mandom (4917 JP)</a>. KKR is unlikely to walk despite the earnings guidance revision after the DD.  ¥3,100+ is a fine place to sell.</li>
<li>Panama’s Supreme Court dings <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison (1 HK)</a>'s port concessions. CKH/Beijing won't go down without a fight; and rejigging a deal for the remaining ports will (likely) be perennially delayed.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisamitsu-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17008:1" rel="noopener">Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP)</a>is trading through terms. The family Tender Offer is light, but it likely has enormous crossholder support. They could still claim majority of minority.</li>
</ul>


Kalon is unlikely to overbid KKR for Mandom (4917 JP). KKR is unlikely to walk despite the earnings guidance revision after the DD.  ¥3,100+ is a fine place to sell.
Panama’s Supreme Court dings CK Hutchison (1 HK)'s port concessions. CKH/Beijing won't go down without a fight; and rejigging a deal for the remaining ports will (likely) be perennially delayed.

Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP)is trading through terms. The family Tender Offer is light, but it likely has enormous crossholder support. They could still claim majority of minority.


Last Week In Event SPACE: CK Hutchison, Hisamitsu Pharma, JCNC, Mandom, Sunny Optical, Rio

Japan

TSURUHA HOLDINGS INC. is a holding company which manages subsidiaries that operate drug stores in Hokkaido and the Tohoku area.  The Company's product line includes drugs, cosmetics, and household utensils.

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Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Feb 27th): Rakuten Bank, Lasertec, Disco, Kandenko, Toho, SoftBank

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Rakuten Bank, Lasertec, Disco, Kandenko, Toho, SoftBank,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

[Japan M&A/Activism] Toyota RE Says No Bump for Toyota Inds (6201) Part III - Elliott Makes Its Case

Elliott today made a technical filing, with a slightly larger position (7.14% vs 6.65%) They bought shares at a pace of 5-7bp of outstanding per...

Travis Lundy

MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (Jan): Tokio Marine, Aeon, Itochu, Nippon Steel, Advantest, Rakuten

We analyzed MS-Japan's consensus for Jan 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Tokio Marine, Aeon, Itochu, Nippon Steel, Advantest, Rakuten,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia-Pac M&A, Jan 2026 Wrap: Hisamitsu Pharma, IJM Corp, Sankei Real Estate, BioDlink, Skyworth

For the month of Jan 2026, 6 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$8bn. The average premium for these new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: CK Hutchison, Hisamitsu Pharma, JCNC, Mandom, Sunny Optical, Rio

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

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