Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 35 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>No new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week - kinda surprising.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bluescope-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:207:1" rel="noopener">Bluescope Steel (BSL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iress-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15342:1" rel="noopener">Iress  (IRE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/skyworth-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10941:1" rel="noopener">Skyworth Group (751 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raksul-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27043:1" rel="noopener">Raksul Inc (4384 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sankei-real-estate-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35239:1" rel="noopener">Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP)</a>.
</li>
</ul>


I tally 35 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
No new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week - kinda surprising.
Key updates/news also took place on: Bluescope Steel (BSL AU), Iress  (IRE AU), Skyworth Group (751 HK), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Raksul Inc (4384 JP), and Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP).



Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Bluescope Steel, Iress, Skyworth, Toyota Inds., Raksul, Sankei Real Estate

Travis Lundy

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>There is a Company in the Japanese automotive and industrial sector owned and controlled by a major OEM, with a merger in the cards. Terms were proposed early last June.</li>
<li>The OEM agreed to buy assets from the Company post-merger. It is injecting capital in the form of equity and pref shares. It has thrown minority investors under the bus.</li>
<li>That company is not Toyota Industries. But unlike the up-front-and-done indignity suffered by TICO shareholders, Hino’s shareholders may suffer continuing indignity. Merger incoming. Enormous overhang imminent.</li>
</ul>


There is a Company in the Japanese automotive and industrial sector owned and controlled by a major OEM, with a merger in the cards. Terms were proposed early last June.
The OEM agreed to buy assets from the Company post-merger. It is injecting capital in the form of equity and pref shares. It has thrown minority investors under the bus.
That company is not Toyota Industries. But unlike the up-front-and-done indignity suffered by TICO shareholders, Hino’s shareholders may suffer continuing indignity. Merger incoming. Enormous overhang imminent.


[Japan M&A] ARCHION (Hino+MFTBC) Merger Incoming; Still a Re-IPO, Still Rich

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sgh-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:803:1" rel="noopener">SGH Limited (SGH AU)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/steel-dynamics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11061:1" rel="noopener">Steel Dynamics (STLD US)</a>'s indicative Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bluescope-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:207:1" rel="noopener">Bluescope Steel (BSL AU)</a>was light from the onset. They'd need bump terms bigly for any deal to move forward. </li>
<li>The<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a>'s Tender Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> shows a 100% pro-ration.  A LOT of long-only and retail holders did NOT tender.</li>
<li>Air China's share placing agreement, is very clearly geared to get their stake &lt;30% after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cathay-pacific-airways-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:243:1" rel="noopener">Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)</a>buys back Qatar Airways' stake.  </li>
</ul>



SGH Limited (SGH AU)/Steel Dynamics (STLD US)'s indicative Offer for Bluescope Steel (BSL AU)was light from the onset. They'd need bump terms bigly for any deal to move forward. 
TheAeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)'s Tender Offer for Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) shows a 100% pro-ration.  A LOT of long-only and retail holders did NOT tender.
Air China's share placing agreement, is very clearly geared to get their stake &lt;30% after Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK)buys back Qatar Airways' stake.  


Last Week In Event SPACE: Bluescope Steel, Cathay Pacific, Sunny Optical

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist, Cameron Design

Jay Cameron

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist

Cameron Design

We specialize in financial products and volatility. Our strategies balance speed, data, and risk control to capture opportunities across global markets. Our research leverages AI and data analytics to continuously refine our algorithms and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>AEON's stock surge and 237x LTM P/E suggest record profits and private-label success are largely priced in, creating a high bar for future execution.</li>
<li>Upcoming catalysts include the Q3 earnings on January 8, 2026, and a complex March supermarket reorganization that introduces short-term uncertainty.</li>
<li>The current elevated valuation and corporate restructuring imply a market consolidation phase, suggesting a strategy focused on range-bound spot price movement.</li>
</ul>


AEON's stock surge and 237x LTM P/E suggest record profits and private-label success are largely priced in, creating a high bar for future execution.
Upcoming catalysts include the Q3 earnings on January 8, 2026, and a complex March supermarket reorganization that introduces short-term uncertainty.
The current elevated valuation and corporate restructuring imply a market consolidation phase, suggesting a strategy focused on range-bound spot price movement.


AEON (8267) Restructuring Strategy: Monetize Volatility After Tsuruha-Welcia Consolidation, 237xP/E

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Japan in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Itochu, Toyota Motor, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, SoftBank, Rakuten, Nippon Steel, Sompo.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of MS-Japan in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Itochu, Toyota Motor, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, SoftBank, Rakuten, Nippon Steel, Sompo.


MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (Dec): Itochu, Toyota Motor, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, SoftBank

Japan

TSURUHA HOLDINGS INC. is a holding company which manages subsidiaries that operate drug stores in Hokkaido and the Tohoku area.  The Company's product line includes drugs, cosmetics, and household utensils.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)

Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Bluescope Steel, Iress, Skyworth, Toyota Inds., Raksul, Sankei Real Estate

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

[Japan M&A] ARCHION (Hino+MFTBC) Merger Incoming; Still a Re-IPO, Still Rich

Hino released Q3 earnings and revised guidance on 29 Jan. Looks good. Half of uplift is FX effect, still conservative. NP higher on HOTAI Motor...

Travis Lundy

Last Week In Event SPACE: Bluescope Steel, Cathay Pacific, Sunny Optical

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

AEON (8267) Restructuring Strategy: Monetize Volatility After Tsuruha-Welcia Consolidation, 237xP/E

AEON's stock surge and high P/E indicate strong profits and private-label success somewhat factored in, with upcoming catalysts and restructuring...

Jay Cameron

MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (Dec): Itochu, Toyota Motor, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, SoftBank

We analyzed MS-Japan's consensus for Dec 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Itochu, Toyota Motor, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, SoftBank, Rakuten,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Bluescope Steel, Iress, Skyworth, Toyota Inds., Raksul, Sankei Real Estate

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

[Japan M&A] ARCHION (Hino+MFTBC) Merger Incoming; Still a Re-IPO, Still Rich

Hino released Q3 earnings and revised guidance on 29 Jan. Looks good. Half of uplift is FX effect, still conservative. NP higher on HOTAI Motor...

Travis Lundy

Last Week In Event SPACE: Bluescope Steel, Cathay Pacific, Sunny Optical

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

AEON (8267) Restructuring Strategy: Monetize Volatility After Tsuruha-Welcia Consolidation, 237xP/E

​AEON's stock surge and high P/E indicate strong profits and private-label success somewhat factored in, with upcoming catalysts and restructuring...

Jay Cameron

MS-Japan Index Earning Revision (Dec): Itochu, Toyota Motor, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, SoftBank

We analyzed MS-Japan's consensus for Dec 2025 and highlighted changes of EPS in Itochu, Toyota Motor, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, SoftBank, Rakuten,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

AEON's stock surge and high P/E indicate strong profits and private-label success somewhat factored in, with upcoming catalysts and restructuring...