Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>These pages have been full of long and short ideas on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> over the past couple of years as activists got their way, then Aeon did.</li>
<li>Then Aeon didn't, and had to pay up for a partial tender. The partial tender offer was fair-ish, but the post-tender trading has taken the shares back to DIRT CHEAP.</li>
<li>The merger between Tsuruha should get synergies, and the FY-end balance sheet shows it is substantially under-levered. Forward EV/EBIT multiples are lowest in the industry. But there's passive selling soon.</li>
</ul>


These pages have been full of long and short ideas on Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) over the past couple of years as activists got their way, then Aeon did.
Then Aeon didn't, and had to pay up for a partial tender. The partial tender offer was fair-ish, but the post-tender trading has taken the shares back to DIRT CHEAP.
The merger between Tsuruha should get synergies, and the FY-end balance sheet shows it is substantially under-levered. Forward EV/EBIT multiples are lowest in the industry. But there's passive selling soon.


Tsuruha (3391 JP) - New Balance Sheet, New Growth, New Price (Cheap!), And Passive Selling To Come?

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japan’s top retailers had a strong FY2025, with the top 81 companies now controlling 48% of all retail sales, up 5.2 points in a single year.</li>
<li>It was a year defined as much by reconfiguration as growth, with drugstores, discounters and e-commerce taking share from supermarkets, department stores and home centres.</li>
<li>A wave of M&amp;A reshaped the competitive map faster than organic performance alone could explain. This focus examines what results reveal about where Japanese retail is heading next.</li>
</ul>


Japan’s top retailers had a strong FY2025, with the top 81 companies now controlling 48% of all retail sales, up 5.2 points in a single year.
It was a year defined as much by reconfiguration as growth, with drugstores, discounters and e-commerce taking share from supermarkets, department stores and home centres.
A wave of M&amp;A reshaped the competitive map faster than organic performance alone could explain. This focus examines what results reveal about where Japanese retail is heading next.


M&A a Key Tool to Gain Market Share in Japanese Retailing

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Tsuruha is about to absorb Welcia and together, will become a ¥2 trillion operation and far bigger than drugstore rivals. </li>
<li>This should be a winning combination given the new economies of scale, repivoted management team and national reach.</li>
<li>But there is a problem: price competition is already changing the playing field. And convenience stores are about to get serious with OTC meds.</li>
</ul>


Tsuruha is about to absorb Welcia and together, will become a ¥2 trillion operation and far bigger than drugstore rivals. 
This should be a winning combination given the new economies of scale, repivoted management team and national reach.
But there is a problem: price competition is already changing the playing field. And convenience stores are about to get serious with OTC meds.


Could Discounters Derail Tsuruha-Welcia's Ambitions?

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>I tally 37 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>Two new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sankei-real-estate-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35239:1" rel="noopener">Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP)</a>and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hisamitsu-pharmaceutical-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17008:1" rel="noopener">Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35025:1" rel="noopener">ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jinke-smart-services-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29214:1" rel="noopener">Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Bank (11 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 37 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
Two new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Sankei Real Estate (2972 JP)and Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP).
Key updates/news also took place on: ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP), and Hang Seng Bank (11 HK).


Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap:ANE Cayman, Tsuruha/Aeon, Jinke Smart, Sankei Real Estate, Hisamitsu Pharma

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a>'s Partial Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-partial-tender-aeon-8267-partial-offer-for-tsuruha-3391-announced-at-2-900-share" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:213005" rel="noopener">[Japan Partial Tender] AEON (8267) Partial Offer for TSURUHA (3391) Announced at ¥2,900/Share</a> is trading rich.</li>
<li>The Conclusions/Trade section was clear on the near-term risks. There was good short-term upside. There may be less with the stock trading 0.5% away from the tender price.</li>
<li>With the stock trading so close, it changes the calculus, in both directions.</li>
</ul>



Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)'s Partial Offer for Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) discussed in [Japan Partial Tender] AEON (8267) Partial Offer for TSURUHA (3391) Announced at ¥2,900/Share is trading rich.
The Conclusions/Trade section was clear on the near-term risks. There was good short-term upside. There may be less with the stock trading 0.5% away from the tender price.
With the stock trading so close, it changes the calculus, in both directions.


[Japan Partial Tender] AEON (8267) Tender for TSURUHA (3391) Trading Rich

Japan

TSURUHA HOLDINGS INC. is a holding company which manages subsidiaries that operate drug stores in Hokkaido and the Tohoku area.  The Company's product line includes drugs, cosmetics, and household utensils.

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Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)

Tsuruha (3391 JP) - New Balance Sheet, New Growth, New Price (Cheap!), And Passive Selling To Come?

Tsuruha is -30% since late Dec25 when the Tender Offer ended. Goodwill amortization has scared some investors off since. The stock is now very...

Travis Lundy

Could Discounters Derail Tsuruha-Welcia's Ambitions?

Tsuruha's acquisition of Welcia creates a powerhouse in the drugstore market, but price competition poses a challenge for the new entity's success.

Michael Causton

Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap:ANE Cayman, Tsuruha/Aeon, Jinke Smart, Sankei Real Estate, Hisamitsu Pharma

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

[Japan Partial Tender] AEON (8267) Tender for TSURUHA (3391) Trading Rich

Tsuruha trading rich again. Arb opportunities are options. One doesn't have to trade a certain way simply because one has a position (stock or...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tsuruha (3391 JP) - New Balance Sheet, New Growth, New Price (Cheap!), And Passive Selling To Come?

Tsuruha is -30% since late Dec25 when the Tender Offer ended. Goodwill amortization has scared some investors off since. The stock is now very...

Travis Lundy

M&A a Key Tool to Gain Market Share in Japanese Retailing

Japan’s top 81 companies control 48% of all retail sales as of FY2025, up 5.2 points in a single year. M&A was the main reason and the pace of...

Michael Causton

Could Discounters Derail Tsuruha-Welcia's Ambitions?

​Tsuruha's acquisition of Welcia creates a powerhouse in the drugstore market, but price competition poses a challenge for the new entity's success.

Michael Causton

Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap:ANE Cayman, Tsuruha/Aeon, Jinke Smart, Sankei Real Estate, Hisamitsu Pharma

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

[Japan Partial Tender] AEON (8267) Tender for TSURUHA (3391) Trading Rich

Tsuruha trading rich again. Arb opportunities are options. One doesn't have to trade a certain way simply because one has a position (stock or...

Travis Lundy

Tsuruha's acquisition of Welcia creates a powerhouse in the drugstore market, but price competition poses a challenge for the new entity's success.