Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 5500.</li>
<li>Our base case expectation is that SPX holds above short-term gap support at 5700-5785 (which is also where the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day MAs all converge).</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will maintain our bullish view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 5500.
Our base case expectation is that SPX holds above short-term gap support at 5700-5785 (which is also where the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day MAs all converge).


Gap Supports Holding; Expecting Test of All-Time Highs; Long-Term Treasury Yields Rolling Over?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Mirae Asset Securities

Mirae Asset Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Leading full-service brokerage firm in Vietnam. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>On October 21, the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HSX) will release the changes to the constituent stocks and calculation factors for VNDiamond Index baskets with these adjustments, effective from November 4, 2024.</li><li>Consequently, November 1, 2024 will be the last trading day for ETFs, following the VN-Diamond Index’s rebalancing of their portfolios</li><li>HSX has approved Decision No. 502/QD-SGDHCM, which replaces version 2.1 with version 3.0 of the "Vietnam Diamond Index" construction and management rules, effective from the October 2024 review period.</li></ul><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

On October 21, the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HSX) will release the changes to the constituent stocks and calculation factors for VNDiamond Index baskets with these adjustments, effective from November 4, 2024.Consequently, November 1, 2024 will be the last trading day for ETFs, following the VN-Diamond Index’s rebalancing of their portfoliosHSX has approved Decision No. 502/QD-SGDHCM, which replaces version 2.1 with version 3.0 of the "Vietnam Diamond Index" construction and management rules, effective from the October 2024 review period.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Forecast VNDiamond Index Review in 4Q24 - Sep 26, 2024

<ul>
<li>Our long-term outlook remains neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) as of our 8/6/24 Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023.</li>
<li>Since late-July discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation on SPX and QQQ; now it's likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months from 7/17/24.</li>
<li>At that point the market will decide which way this consolidation resolves. Throughout this pullback we have said that this consolidation could end up being a significant topping pattern.</li>
</ul>


Our long-term outlook remains neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) as of our 8/6/24 Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023.
Since late-July discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation on SPX and QQQ; now it's likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months from 7/17/24.
At that point the market will decide which way this consolidation resolves. Throughout this pullback we have said that this consolidation could end up being a significant topping pattern.


Upgrading Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow

External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club (VIC)

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Value Investors Club

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Attractive valuation and low multiples compared to peers make Turning Point Brands an intriguing investment opportunity</li><li>Company is poised for significant top-line and bottom-line growth despite past struggles and negative sentiment</li><li>Strong position in tobacco alternative market and focus on non-cigarette products set TPB up for future success, offering potential upside for investors.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.</em></p>

Attractive valuation and low multiples compared to peers make Turning Point Brands an intriguing investment opportunityCompany is poised for significant top-line and bottom-line growth despite past struggles and negative sentimentStrong position in tobacco alternative market and focus on non-cigarette products set TPB up for future success, offering potential upside for investors.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Turning Point Brands Inc (TPB) - Tuesday, Dec 5, 2023

<ul>
<li>We still recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Healthcare, and gold miners) as the SPX tests our 4165-4200 resistance range, and also resistance from the prior 1.5-month uptrend.</li>
<li>As we await Wednesdays FOMC announcement, the DJIA and Nasdaq Composite are testing 1-year resistances at 34,280 and 12,300, the DXY appears to be inflecting higher, and breadth remains weak.</li>
<li>While we still see a reach to 4300-4325 as possible, we believe playing for more upside is akin to picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.</li>
</ul>


We still recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Healthcare, and gold miners) as the SPX tests our 4165-4200 resistance range, and also resistance from the prior 1.5-month uptrend.
As we await Wednesdays FOMC announcement, the DJIA and Nasdaq Composite are testing 1-year resistances at 34,280 and 12,300, the DXY appears to be inflecting higher, and breadth remains weak.
While we still see a reach to 4300-4325 as possible, we believe playing for more upside is akin to picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.


S&P 500 Testing 4165-4200, DJIA Testing 34,280, Nasdaq Composite Testing 12,300; Stay Defensive

United States

Turning Point Brands, Inc. provides tobacco products. The Company offers a wide range of products, including moist snuff, loose leaf chewing tobacco, cigarette papers, make-your-own cigar wraps and cigar smoking tobacco, cigars, and liquid and tobacco vapor products.

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Turning Point Brands (TPB US)

Gap Supports Holding; Expecting Test of All-Time Highs; Long-Term Treasury Yields Rolling Over?

Gap Supports Holding; Expecting Test of All-Time Highs $SPX $QQQ $NDX; 10- and 30-Year Treasury Yields Rolling Over?; Watching $209-210 resistance...

Vermilion Research

Forecast VNDiamond Index Review in 4Q24 - Sep 26, 2024

On October 21, the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HSX) will release the changes to the constituent stocks and calculation factors for VNDiamond...

Mirae Asset Securities

Upgrading Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow

Upgrading Staples $XLP, Real Estate $XLRE, Health Care $XLV to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow; Dow $DJI, Equal-Weight S&P 500 $RSP,...

Vermilion Research

Turning Point Brands Inc (TPB) - Tuesday, Dec 5, 2023

Strong position in tobacco alternative market and focus on non-cigarette products set TPB up for future success, offering potential upside for...

Value Investors Club (VIC)

S&P 500 Testing 4165-4200, DJIA Testing 34,280, Nasdaq Composite Testing 12,300; Stay Defensive

$SPX testing our 4165-4200 resistance range, $DJI testing 34,280 1-yr resistance, Nasdaq Comp $COMPQ testing critical 12,300 resistance. All while...

Vermilion Research

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