Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

The Brazilian real (BRL) has by far been the best-performing EM currency since the end of March. In this note, we address the following questions:<ol>
<li>What is behind the rally?</li>
<li>If it continues, how much further can BRL run?</li>
<li>Is it worthwhile to go long the currency at these levels?</li>
</ol>Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

The Brazilian real (BRL) has by far been the best-performing EM currency since the end of March. In this note, we address the following questions:
What is behind the rally?
If it continues, how much further can BRL run?
Is it worthwhile to go long the currency at these levels?
Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: How Much Further Can the Brazilian Real Run?

We examine the EM FX space for opportunities in the aftermath of the hawkish FOMC meeting last week which led to a sharp rise in the US dollar. Two currencies that have underperformed and stand out as buying opportunities are the Chilean peso (CLP) and the Romanian leu (RON).Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

We examine the EM FX space for opportunities in the aftermath of the hawkish FOMC meeting last week which led to a sharp rise in the US dollar. Two currencies that have underperformed and stand out as buying opportunities are the Chilean peso (CLP) and the Romanian leu (RON).Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Did the Dollar Spike Create Opportunities in EM FX?

The US dollar has strengthened on the back of the hawkish Fed, hurting Asian currencies across the board but the Singapore dollar (SGD) more so than the Indonesian rupiah (IDR), allowing us to take profit on our Long IDR vs Short SGD trade recommendation.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

The US dollar has strengthened on the back of the hawkish Fed, hurting Asian currencies across the board but the Singapore dollar (SGD) more so than the Indonesian rupiah (IDR), allowing us to take profit on our Long IDR vs Short SGD trade recommendation.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Take Profit on Long Indonesian Rupiah Vs Short Singapore Dollar Recommendation

While our base case is not one of significant dollar strengthening, we need to be cognizant of the risk. As such, we evaluate which currencies are the most vulnerable if we get a repeat of the Q1 dollar appreciation and EM FX sell-off on the back of higher US Treasury yields.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

While our base case is not one of significant dollar strengthening, we need to be cognizant of the risk. As such, we evaluate which currencies are the most vulnerable if we get a repeat of the Q1 dollar appreciation and EM FX sell-off on the back of higher US Treasury yields.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Which Currencies Are Most Vulnerable to Dollar Strengthening?

With the market speculating on whether or not there will be hints on tapering when the FOMC decision is announced later today, we decided to update our comparative analysis of the impact on EM currencies during the current reflationary episode with that during the Taper Tantrum of 2013.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

With the market speculating on whether or not there will be hints on tapering when the FOMC decision is announced later today, we decided to update our comparative analysis of the impact on EM currencies during the current reflationary episode with that during the Taper Tantrum of 2013.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: An Update on Taper Tantrum Vs Current Reflationary Scare – Part 1

Taiwan

The New Taiwan dollar is the official currency of Taiwan

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

TWD (USDTWD CURNCY)

FX Dashboard: How Much Further Can the Brazilian Real Run?

With the Brazilian real being the best-performing currency since March-end, we discuss the reasons behind the rally, how much further it can go,...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Did the Dollar Spike Create Opportunities in EM FX?

We examine the EM FX space for opportunities in the aftermath of the hawkish FOMC meeting last week which led to a sharp rise in the US dollar.

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Take Profit on Long Indonesian Rupiah Vs Short Singapore Dollar Recommendation

The US dollar has strengthened on the back of the hawkish Fed, hurting SGD more than IDR, allowing us to take profit on our Long IDR vs Short SGD...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Which Currencies Are Most Vulnerable to Dollar Strengthening?

We evaluate which currencies are the most vulnerable under the risk scenario of a repeat of the Q1 dollar appreciation and EM FX sell-off on the...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: An Update on Taper Tantrum Vs Current Reflationary Scare – Part 1

Ahead of the FOMC decision today, we decided to update our comparative analysis of the impact on EM currencies during the current reflationary...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)