Global Macro and Currencies, FX Macro

FX Macro

Global Macro and Currencies

Brings you up to speed on the relevant macro developments: central banks, economic data, sentiment, intermarket analysis. Every weekend. For traders, investors and everyone interested in what's going on in FX and macro.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Bond yields are the overwhelming focus; the 10-year breached 5.3% and most writers see fiscal deficits, heavy issuance, and AI capex driving yields structurally higher.</li><li>Inflation is considered persistent, with core PCE above 3% and the Fed missing its target for 66 months.</li><li>Equity market internals are deteriorating sharply — record index highs are being built on narrow mega-cap leadership, a classic late-cycle signal.</li></ul>

Bond yields are the overwhelming focus; the 10-year breached 5.3% and most writers see fiscal deficits, heavy issuance, and AI capex driving yields structurally higher.Inflation is considered persistent, with core PCE above 3% and the Fed missing its target for 66 months.Equity market internals are deteriorating sharply — record index highs are being built on narrow mega-cap leadership, a classic late-cycle signal.

Everyone wants to catch the falling knife in the bond market

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Throughout 2024, we’ve witnessed tight trading ranges across various markets: oil, FX, and Credit spreads.</li><li>Notably, Semiconductors (light blue), Gold (depicted in blue), High-Yield OAS (in red), and Bitcoin (represented in black) exhibit remarkably similar chart patterns.</li><li>In essence, these assets no longer offer diversification benefits; they have effectively become indistinguishable trades.</li></ul>

Throughout 2024, we’ve witnessed tight trading ranges across various markets: oil, FX, and Credit spreads.Notably, Semiconductors (light blue), Gold (depicted in blue), High-Yield OAS (in red), and Bitcoin (represented in black) exhibit remarkably similar chart patterns.In essence, these assets no longer offer diversification benefits; they have effectively become indistinguishable trades.

External broker reports, Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We believe the FOMCs shift in reaction function sets the central bank up for a policy mistake.</li><li>The new focus on the real fed funds rate opens up for a measured pace of rate cuts (25bp per quarter) to start already in March.</li><li>However, with still very little free capacity in the economy, this rate cutting campaign will soon hit the wall as inflation problems resurface.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We believe the FOMCs shift in reaction function sets the central bank up for a policy mistake.The new focus on the real fed funds rate opens up for a measured pace of rate cuts (25bp per quarter) to start already in March.However, with still very little free capacity in the economy, this rate cutting campaign will soon hit the wall as inflation problems resurface.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Major Forecasts: Not Keeping at It Until the Job Is Done

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>Key central banks will hold crucial monetary policy meetings in the 2nd week of Dec with the FOMC meeting as the primary focus of attention.</li><li>While the market has factored in a faster rate cut in 2024, the upcoming Dot Plot release will determine the market's future direction.</li><li>On the domestic front, inflation saw some acceleration, with chili prices remaining a primary contributor.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Key central banks will hold crucial monetary policy meetings in the 2nd week of Dec with the FOMC meeting as the primary focus of attention.While the market has factored in a faster rate cut in 2024, the upcoming Dot Plot release will determine the market's future direction.On the domestic front, inflation saw some acceleration, with chili prices remaining a primary contributor.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Macro Strategy: Anticipation of Accelerated Rate Cuts

<ul><li>Positive macro momentum is likely to persist following last week’s data release, with yields further declining and the IDR strengthening.</li><li>Our BI Rate Tracker indicates a reduction in IDR volatility in Nov, the first time in five months, with no signs of impending inflation, paving the way for no change in rates policy.</li><li>Determining wage increases should emphasize an optimal balance that promotes consumption without impeding investment, which is inline with government priorities as seen in the recent changes in the wage formula with the introduction of α as a growth inhibitor.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Positive macro momentum is likely to persist following last week’s data release, with yields further declining and the IDR strengthening.Our BI Rate Tracker indicates a reduction in IDR volatility in Nov, the first time in five months, with no signs of impending inflation, paving the way for no change in rates policy.Determining wage increases should emphasize an optimal balance that promotes consumption without impeding investment, which is inline with government priorities as seen in the recent changes in the wage formula with the introduction of α as a growth inhibitor.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

Everyone wants to catch the falling knife in the bond market

Bond yields are the overwhelming focus; the 10-year breached 5.3% and most writers see fiscal deficits, heavy issuance, and AI capex driving yields...

FX Macro

Are We Heading for a Volatility Event?

Notably, Semiconductors (light blue), Gold (depicted in blue), High-Yield OAS (in red), and Bitcoin (represented in black) exhibit remarkably...

Untying The Gordian Knot

Major Forecasts: Not Keeping at It Until the Job Is Done

With the Fed having pivoted, we now see rate cuts starting in March. But easing too soon also means inflation will resurge and put an early stop to...

Nordea

Macro Strategy: Anticipation of Accelerated Rate Cuts

Key central banks will hold crucial monetary policy meetings in the 2nd week of Dec with the FOMC meeting as the primary focus of attention.

BRI Danareksa Research

Macro Strategy: Sustaining Momentum

Positive macro momentum is likely to persist following last week’s data release, with yields further declining and the IDR strengthening.

BRI Danareksa Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)