External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The USD is trading a little lower on the session. The USD’s New Year rally has stalled, with the EUR gaining a little ground over the course of the European morning session on supportive data.</li><li>The JPY is underperforming amid speculation that the Ishikawa earthquake will leave the BoJ reluctant to adjust monetary policy in the near term, however.</li><li>Broader USD losses are perhaps no more than a pause in the recent rebound which still has room to play out, in my opinion. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is trading a little lower on the session. The USD’s New Year rally has stalled, with the EUR gaining a little ground over the course of the European morning session on supportive data.The JPY is underperforming amid speculation that the Ishikawa earthquake will leave the BoJ reluctant to adjust monetary policy in the near term, however.Broader USD losses are perhaps no more than a pause in the recent rebound which still has room to play out, in my opinion. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Edges Lower but Finds Support on Dips

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD ended 2023 on a soft note, but a little off the low made on December 28th which was the lowest the DXY traded at since July.</li><li>Overall, the DXY registered a down year in 2023, losing around 4% overall after two years of solid gains.</li><li>The holiday period has been relatively quiet. The JPY and CHF have tended to outperform since the 24th while sterling and the EUR are relative underperformers among the majors—but are effectively little changed since just before the holiday break. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The USD ended 2023 on a soft note, but a little off the low made on December 28th which was the lowest the DXY traded at since July.Overall, the DXY registered a down year in 2023, losing around 4% overall after two years of solid gains.The holiday period has been relatively quiet. The JPY and CHF have tended to outperform since the 24th while sterling and the EUR are relative underperformers among the majors—but are effectively little changed since just before the holiday break. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Not quite the night before Christmas and some things are still stirring across markets ahead of the holidays.</li><li>The USD is broadly weaker versus the major currencies as markets position ahead of this morning’s data round. Month-end flows may also be weighing on the USD.</li><li>The EUR has risen through recent peaks to trade at its best level since August. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Not quite the night before Christmas and some things are still stirring across markets ahead of the holidays.The USD is broadly weaker versus the major currencies as markets position ahead of this morning’s data round. Month-end flows may also be weighing on the USD.The EUR has risen through recent peaks to trade at its best level since August. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports, Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We believe the FOMCs shift in reaction function sets the central bank up for a policy mistake.</li><li>The new focus on the real fed funds rate opens up for a measured pace of rate cuts (25bp per quarter) to start already in March.</li><li>However, with still very little free capacity in the economy, this rate cutting campaign will soon hit the wall as inflation problems resurface.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We believe the FOMCs shift in reaction function sets the central bank up for a policy mistake.The new focus on the real fed funds rate opens up for a measured pace of rate cuts (25bp per quarter) to start already in March.However, with still very little free capacity in the economy, this rate cutting campaign will soon hit the wall as inflation problems resurface.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Major Forecasts: Not Keeping at It Until the Job Is Done

<ul><li>This week’s CFTC data reflect a deepening of USD bearish sentiment among investors.</li><li>Aggregate USD short positioning by Non -Commercial (speculative) accounts doubled in the week through Tuesday to reach USD6.3bn.</li><li>Additional data shows Leveraged Accounts (hedge funds) reducing net USD longs slightly but exposure is holding close to recent levels.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

This week’s CFTC data reflect a deepening of USD bearish sentiment among investors.Aggregate USD short positioning by Non -Commercial (speculative) accounts doubled in the week through Tuesday to reach USD6.3bn.Additional data shows Leveraged Accounts (hedge funds) reducing net USD longs slightly but exposure is holding close to recent levels.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bearish USD Sentiment Grows, JPY Shorts Covered

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

FX Daily - USD Edges Lower but Finds Support on Dips

he USD’s New Year rally has stalled, with the EUR gaining a little ground over the course of the European morning session on supportive data.

Scotiabank

FX Daily - Oversold USD Rebounds

The USD ended 2023 on a soft note, but a little off the low made on December 28th which was the lowest the DXY traded at since July.

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Slides Ahead of Data

The USD is broadly weaker versus the major currencies as markets position ahead of this morning’s data round. Month-end flows may also be weighing...

Scotiabank

Major Forecasts: Not Keeping at It Until the Job Is Done

With the Fed having pivoted, we now see rate cuts starting in March. But easing too soon also means inflation will resurge and put an early stop to...

Nordea

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bearish USD Sentiment Grows, JPY Shorts Covered

Aggregate USD short positioning by Non -Commercial (speculative) accounts doubled in the week through Tuesday to reach USD6.3bn.

Scotiabank

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