Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Dollar undervaluation has closed in the past three months, but institutional Fed credibility news has not had a durable effect on the price.</li><li>Concerns about exceptionalism in US equity market strength potentially pushing the dollar higher are countered by better growth not being US exclusive and the impact of inflation on currency.</li><li>Despite large inflows into US equities in June, the dollar fell substantially, raising questions about the relationship between flows and dollar strength.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Dollar undervaluation has closed in the past three months, but institutional Fed credibility news has not had a durable effect on the price.Concerns about exceptionalism in US equity market strength potentially pushing the dollar higher are countered by better growth not being US exclusive and the impact of inflation on currency.Despite large inflows into US equities in June, the dollar fell substantially, raising questions about the relationship between flows and dollar strength.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: The weak dollar view passes a flow test

<ul><li>Dollar index has been consolidating for the last two months, leading to uncertainty</li><li>Conditions for dollar bearishness still intact, with US real yields heading lower and growth slowing down</li><li>Potential catalysts for dollar weakness include Fed capitulation to dovish side or Russia Ukraine resolution impacting energy prices and trade relations.</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Dollar index has been consolidating for the last two months, leading to uncertaintyConditions for dollar bearishness still intact, with US real yields heading lower and growth slowing downPotential catalysts for dollar weakness include Fed capitulation to dovish side or Russia Ukraine resolution impacting energy prices and trade relations.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: Can USD weakness continue, Russia/Ukraine Scenarios and what’s next for GBP

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI) remain bullish, all hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs.</li>
<li>Mid-Caps (S&amp;P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) starting another leg higher following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (S&amp;P 600, Russell 2000) are likely to follow in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps.</li>
<li>Small-Cap indexes have been consolidating for 2.5 months following the historic rally from late-October to late-December 2023, a healthy sign. We expect they are gearing-up for another similar move higher.</li>
</ul>


Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI) remain bullish, all hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs.
Mid-Caps (S&amp;P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) starting another leg higher following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (S&amp;P 600, Russell 2000) are likely to follow in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps.
Small-Cap indexes have been consolidating for 2.5 months following the historic rally from late-October to late-December 2023, a healthy sign. We expect they are gearing-up for another similar move higher.


U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.</li>
<li>We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.</li>
<li>With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.
We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.
With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.


Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>We highlight a  commodity sector with  a strong risk-reward ratio</li>
<li>Precious metals have likely just completed Wave B of their correction</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
We highlight a  commodity sector with  a strong risk-reward ratio
Precious metals have likely just completed Wave B of their correction


Overview #41 – Securing Supply, Unlocking Value: Global Themes in Equities and Commodities

United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and major world currencies. The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>.

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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

Global FX: The weak dollar view passes a flow test

The dollar has been undervalued in the past three months, with incremental news flow around institutional Fed credibility having a negative impact...

At Any Rate

Global FX: Can USD weakness continue, Russia/Ukraine Scenarios and what’s next for GBP

The dollar index has been consolidating for the past two months, with the potential for a weakening dollar due to conditions on a global scale and...

At Any Rate

U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

U.S. Dollar $DXY Rolling Over; 10- and 30-Yr Treasury Yields Hit Major Resistance; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- and Large-Caps to New Highs $IWM $RTY...

Vermilion Research

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

Overview #41 – Securing Supply, Unlocking Value: Global Themes in Equities and Commodities

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Lithium, Japan, precious Metals and the Oil and Gas sector

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)