Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>The Precious metals and miners are potentially having blow-off moves</li>
<li>Strategic Metals and Minerals get another boost from the Trump  administration</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
The Precious metals and miners are potentially having blow-off moves
Strategic Metals and Minerals get another boost from the Trump  administration


Overview #35 – You Can’t Always Get What You Want...

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI) remain bullish, all hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs.</li>
<li>Mid-Caps (S&amp;P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) starting another leg higher following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (S&amp;P 600, Russell 2000) are likely to follow in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps.</li>
<li>Small-Cap indexes have been consolidating for 2.5 months following the historic rally from late-October to late-December 2023, a healthy sign. We expect they are gearing-up for another similar move higher.</li>
</ul>


Large-Cap indexes (S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJI) remain bullish, all hitting new all-time highs last week while continuing to find short-term support at their respective 20-day MAs.
Mid-Caps (S&amp;P 400, Russell Mid-Cap) starting another leg higher following breakouts from 2-month consolidations. Small-caps (S&amp;P 600, Russell 2000) are likely to follow in the footsteps of large- and mid-caps.
Small-Cap indexes have been consolidating for 2.5 months following the historic rally from late-October to late-December 2023, a healthy sign. We expect they are gearing-up for another similar move higher.


U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Welcome to our short and sweet Fed preview.</li><li>No one expects policy action from the Fed this week, but Powell could decide to reiterate that the dot plot remains intact given the most recent information received.</li><li>We doubt that Powell will bring about a strong guidance for a December hike, but unless the wheels come off, it’s very likely that they will be tempted to deliver that hike come December.</li></ul>

Welcome to our short and sweet Fed preview.No one expects policy action from the Fed this week, but Powell could decide to reiterate that the dot plot remains intact given the most recent information received.We doubt that Powell will bring about a strong guidance for a December hike, but unless the wheels come off, it’s very likely that they will be tempted to deliver that hike come December.

Fed Watch: Why Should the Fed Abandon the Planned Year-End Hike?

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of 4/21/26) on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), and we recommended buying the pullback in our June 9 U.S. Macro Vision.</li>
<li>The IWM has begun to lead, hitting new all-time highs yesterday while SPX and QQQ consolidate below their early-June highs.</li>
<li>A new wrinkle is that the DXY is showing signs of breaking out, a risk-off signal. This gives us reason for pause, and suggests a potentially longer consolidation period.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of 4/21/26) on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), and we recommended buying the pullback in our June 9 U.S. Macro Vision.
The IWM has begun to lead, hitting new all-time highs yesterday while SPX and QQQ consolidate below their early-June highs.
A new wrinkle is that the DXY is showing signs of breaking out, a risk-off signal. This gives us reason for pause, and suggests a potentially longer consolidation period.


U.S. Dollar (DXY) Breakout a Reason for Concern?; Monitoring Semiconductors (SOXX) And Micron (MU)

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>The Boj, the Fed, and the ECB all tightened rates this week - with different outcomes</li>
<li>Tightening liquidity globally, but still no signs of a major top</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
The Boj, the Fed, and the ECB all tightened rates this week - with different outcomes
Tightening liquidity globally, but still no signs of a major top


United States

The U.S. Dollar Index(USDX) indicates the general int'l value of the USD. The USDX does this by averaging the exchange rates between the USD and  major world currencies.  The ICE US computes this by using the rates supplied by some 500 banks. FOR REAL TIME SEE EIS ICEA<GO>. 

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Dollar Index (DXY CURNCY)

Overview #35 – You Can’t Always Get What You Want...

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at recent moves in the precious metals and uranium sector

Rikki Malik

U.S. Dollar Rolling Over; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- And Large-Caps to New Highs; Buys in Cons. Disc.

U.S. Dollar $DXY Rolling Over; 10- and 30-Yr Treasury Yields Hit Major Resistance; Small-Caps to Follow Mid- and Large-Caps to New Highs $IWM $RTY...

Vermilion Research

Fed Watch: Why Should the Fed Abandon the Planned Year-End Hike?

No one expects policy action from the Fed this week, but Powell could decide to reiterate that the dot plot remains intact given the most recent...

Steno Research

U.S. Dollar (DXY) Breakout a Reason for Concern?; Monitoring Semiconductors (SOXX) And Micron (MU)

U.S. Dollar (DXY) Breakout a Reason for Concern?; Monitoring Semiconductors $SOXX and Micron $MU; Focus Turning Away from Technology/A.I.

Vermilion Research

Overview #78 – Not Out of the Woods

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. Central Bank tightening, Iran taunting the US over rate hikes and a...

Rikki Malik

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